Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Breezy southerly winds continue to occur this afternoon. These
winds are helping to increase moisture from the south across
Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri this
afternoon into this evening.

As moisture continues to spread north instability will start to
increase ahead of an approaching front this evening. The front is
currently across southeastern Kansas and will slowly spread east
into Wednesday.

As instability increases and the cap weakens, storms are expected
to develop across eastern Kansas and develop southward into
Oklahoma, initially to the west of the forecast area. These storms
will then spread east, and these storms will likely develop into
line segments. Damaging straight line winds will be the main risk,
with hail up to the size of half dollars also possible with the
strongest updrafts. Low level shear will be strong enough to
support a mesovort potential with any line segments that can
surge to the northeast, result in a low brief tornado risk again
with any line segments that can surge to the northeast. The severe
risk will generally occur west of Highway 65, with the best
potential generally along and west of the Interstate 49 corridor
from the mid evening into the overnight hours.

As the storms start to spread east into the area late this this
evening into the overnight hours they should be begin to weaken,
with wind becoming the main risk until they dissipate altogether.
This may occur before reaching the eastern Ozarks overnight as
the front slows and the storms move off away from the better lift
and upper level support.

Wednesdays weather will be dependent on exactly how far the
convection plays out tonight. The front will be pushing across
the western portions of the forecast area Wednesday morning and
will slowly spread east and out of the area by Wednesday evening.
If a cold front/storms develop and spread across the entire area
it could work the area over farther to the east, with the severe
potential occurring farther east. If the outflow/overnight
convection does not work over the atmosphere too much, additional
storms should develop near the Highway 65 during the early
afternoon hours and spread east. Severe storms would be possible
with all modes possible but large hail and damaging winds the main
risk.

One to two inches of rain will be possible with this system and
could lead to some localized minor flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Slightly cooler weather will occur on Thursday behind this system
as highs warm into the 60s. A fast moving shortwave trough will
sweep through the region Thursday night and may bring some showers
and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder with it.

An upper level low will then dig to the southeast across the
southwestern U.S. Friday into the Weekend before kicking off to
the east through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the low
is off to the southwest of the area a front will setup over the
area and waves of energy will ride to the northwest and produce
periods of rain with widespread heavy rainfall. The medium range
models continue to show a signal for heavy rain over the region.

There are still questions on exactly where the band of heavy rain
will set up, but it will likely be somewhere across northern
Arkansas into southern Missouri. An additional 2, up to possibly
5 inches of widespread rainfall will be possible this weekend.
With the rain last weekend and the rain expected tonight into
Wednesday, the ground will already be mostly saturated which will
lead to a flooding risk under the axis of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A cold front over eastern Kansas late this evening will continue
to push eastward overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue ahead of the front, but will likely weaken some as the
night progresses and they reach KSGF and KBBG. Still expect
convection at all sites into Wednesday morning. IFR to lower MVFR
ceilings will then overspread the terminals on Wednesday. Biggest
question will be location of front and how convection plays out
later in the day. Most likely scenario is for the strongest storms
to be located east of the TAF sites, limiting thunder chances at
the terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ088-090-
     093>095-101>104.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Raberding

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

MOZ105-260815-
Ozark MO-
238 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 315 AM
CDT...

At 237 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gainesville, or 17 miles north of Bull Shoals, moving east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Norfork Lake...                   Gainesville...
Bakersfield...                    Hardenville...
Brixey...                         Sycamore...
Tecumseh...                       Dora...
Rockbridge...                     Zanoni...
Udall...                          Willhoit...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3680 9251 3679 9212 3650 9212 3650 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 267DEG 46KT 3663 9251

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
247 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

MOZ082-092-096-097-105-260830-
Douglas MO-Wright MO-Ozark MO-Howell MO-Texas MO-
247 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OZARK...EASTERN
DOUGLAS...EASTERN WRIGHT...HOWELL AND TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM
CDT...

At 247 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles northeast of Hartville to 8 miles east
of Ava to 6 miles south of Gainesville. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains...                    Norfork Lake...
Mountain Grove...                 Licking...
Mountain View...                  Willow Springs...
Cabool...                         Houston...
Gainesville...                    Dawson...
Norwood...                        Pomona...
Summersville...                   Raymondville...
Bakersfield...                    South Fork...
Brandsville...                    Huggins...
Plato...                          Lanton...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3695 9251 3747 9239 3747 9225 3758 9225
      3757 9176 3743 9175 3741 9164 3650 9168
      3650 9240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 262DEG 43KT 3743 9235 3695 9250 3652 9240

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EAGLE ROCK              36.55N 93.76W
04/26/2017                   BARRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE EAGLE ROCK AREA.

&&

AB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELL KNOB              36.64N 93.63W
04/26/2017                   BARRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE INTO A HOUSE. NO INJURIES.

&&

AB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

MOZ058-071-082-083-260830-
Dent MO-Maries MO-Phelps MO-Texas MO-
313 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARIES...DENT...
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND PHELPS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 313 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Freeburg to near Houston. Movement was
northeast at 95 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla...                          Montauk State Park...
Salem...                          St. James...
Licking...                        Belle...
Doolittle...                      Vienna...
Newburg...                        Bunker...
Edgar Springs...                  Lenox...
Montauk...                        Jadwin...
Howes Mill...                     Lake Spring...
Gladden...                        Anutt...
Bangert...                        Boss...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 176 and 200.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9131 3751 9131 3750 9121 3742 9121
      3743 9190 3829 9196 3829 9165 3816 9164
      3815 9153 3779 9153 3779 9131 3770 9130
      3769 9115 3759 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 228DEG 83KT 3830 9191 3740 9191

Hatch