Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Breezy southerly winds continue to occur this afternoon. These
winds are helping to increase moisture from the south across
Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri this
afternoon into this evening.

As moisture continues to spread north instability will start to
increase ahead of an approaching front this evening. The front is
currently across southeastern Kansas and will slowly spread east
into Wednesday.

As instability increases and the cap weakens, storms are expected
to develop across eastern Kansas and develop southward into
Oklahoma, initially to the west of the forecast area. These storms
will then spread east, and these storms will likely develop into
line segments. Damaging straight line winds will be the main risk,
with hail up to the size of half dollars also possible with the
strongest updrafts. Low level shear will be strong enough to
support a mesovort potential with any line segments that can
surge to the northeast, result in a low brief tornado risk again
with any line segments that can surge to the northeast. The severe
risk will generally occur west of Highway 65, with the best
potential generally along and west of the Interstate 49 corridor
from the mid evening into the overnight hours.

As the storms start to spread east into the area late this this
evening into the overnight hours they should be begin to weaken,
with wind becoming the main risk until they dissipate altogether.
This may occur before reaching the eastern Ozarks overnight as
the front slows and the storms move off away from the better lift
and upper level support.

Wednesdays weather will be dependent on exactly how far the
convection plays out tonight. The front will be pushing across
the western portions of the forecast area Wednesday morning and
will slowly spread east and out of the area by Wednesday evening.
If a cold front/storms develop and spread across the entire area
it could work the area over farther to the east, with the severe
potential occurring farther east. If the outflow/overnight
convection does not work over the atmosphere too much, additional
storms should develop near the Highway 65 during the early
afternoon hours and spread east. Severe storms would be possible
with all modes possible but large hail and damaging winds the main
risk.

One to two inches of rain will be possible with this system and
could lead to some localized minor flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Slightly cooler weather will occur on Thursday behind this system
as highs warm into the 60s. A fast moving shortwave trough will
sweep through the region Thursday night and may bring some showers
and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder with it.

An upper level low will then dig to the southeast across the
southwestern U.S. Friday into the Weekend before kicking off to
the east through the region Sunday night into Monday. As the low
is off to the southwest of the area a front will setup over the
area and waves of energy will ride to the northwest and produce
periods of rain with widespread heavy rainfall. The medium range
models continue to show a signal for heavy rain over the region.

There are still questions on exactly where the band of heavy rain
will set up, but it will likely be somewhere across northern
Arkansas into southern Missouri. An additional 2, up to possibly
5 inches of widespread rainfall will be possible this weekend.
With the rain last weekend and the rain expected tonight into
Wednesday, the ground will already be mostly saturated which will
lead to a flooding risk under the axis of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A cold front over eastern Kansas late this evening will continue
to push eastward overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue ahead of the front, but will likely weaken some as the
night progresses and they reach KSGF and KBBG. Still expect
convection at all sites into Wednesday morning. IFR to lower MVFR
ceilings will then overspread the terminals on Wednesday. Biggest
question will be location of front and how convection plays out
later in the day. Most likely scenario is for the strongest storms
to be located east of the TAF sites, limiting thunder chances at
the terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ088-090-
     093>095-101>104.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270515-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will continue ahead of a cold front across western
Missouri and southeast Kansas, spreading eastward towards the
eastern Ozarks late tonight.

Instability and shear will be sufficient enough for some strong
to severe storms, with hail to the size of half dollars and wind
gusts up to 60 mph possible. While the tornado risk is fairly
low, an isolated tornado or two embedded within the line of
storms can not be ruled out over extreme southeast Kansas into
western Missouri.

Frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall can also be
expected with these storms. There is an elevated risk for
flooding over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, especially
where heavy rains fell last weekend.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The threat for severe storms will then continue into Wednesday
and Wednesday evening, especially along and east of Highway 65.
The threat for severe storms will be highly dependent on how much
thunderstorm activity occurs tonight, and whether or not this
activity reaches the eastern Missouri Ozarks Wednesday morning.

If thunderstorms reach the eastern Ozarks by Wednesday morning,
the threat for severe storms may diminish for the remainder of
Wednesday. However, if thunderstorms remain absent tonight and
Wednesday morning across south central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks, there will be an elevated threat for severe storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and large hail
would be the primary potential hazards across the eastern Ozarks,
with a limited threat for a tornado or two. A limited risk for
flooding will also exist on Wednesday generally along and east of
the U.S. 65 corridor.

Confidence then continues to increase in the potential for
widespread heavy rainfall from later Friday into the weekend.
With soils nearly saturated, excessive runoff will be likely and
will lead to an increasing risk for flooding. While details
remain unclear regarding where the eventual axis of heaviest
rainfall will develop, it does appear that widespread flooding
will become possible beneath this axis of heaviest rainfall.

Additionally, there will be at least a limited risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms from Friday into Saturday across southern
Missouri.

Those with outdoor and travel plans for this upcoming weekend
should pay close attention to the forecast as there is the
potential for multiple weather hazards, including the potential
for widespread flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed in areas mainly west of highway
 65 over the next 3 hours.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     TSTM WND GST     NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
04/26/2017  M52 MPH          NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            52 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1257 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

MOZ055>057-068-069-079>081-260645-
Dallas MO-Camden MO-Polk MO-Benton MO-Miller MO-Hickory MO-
Laclede MO-Morgan MO-
1257 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HICKORY...DALLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON...WESTERN MILLER...NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE...POLK...
CAMDEN AND SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southeast of Warsaw to 7 miles north
of Bolivar to near Everton. Movement was northeast at 70 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar...                        Lake of The Ozarks...
Pomme de Terre Lake...            Lake of The Ozarks State Park...
Pomme De Terre State Park...      Ha Ha Tonka State Park...
Bennett Spring State Park...      Eldon...
Osage Beach...                    Camdenton...
Buffalo...                        Versailles...
Village of Four Seasons...        Lake Ozark...
Pittsburg...                      Laurie...
Polk...                           Pleasant Hope...
Hermitage...                      Sunrise Beach...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3843 9262 3843 9241 3834 9241 3834 9237
      3801 9244 3741 9315 3743 9362 3767 9344
      3820 9322 3853 9275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 230DEG 59KT 3817 9320 3772 9338 3741 9365

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NOEL                    36.55N 94.48W
04/26/2017                   MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERE TREES BLOWN DOWN AROUND NOEL.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
105 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NOEL                    36.54N 94.49W
04/26/2017                   MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE FELL ON HOUSE AND CAR. NO INJURIES.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
133 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MONETT              36.91N 93.93W
04/26/2017                   BARRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN MONETT AT LINCOLN
            AND DUNN STREET.

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
141 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

MOZ090-091-095-103-260730-
Greene MO-Webster MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-
141 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WEBSTER...WESTERN
CHRISTIAN...NORTHWESTERN STONE AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM
CDT...

At 141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Morrisville to near Crane. Movement was
east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield...                    Nixa...
Ozark...                          Republic...
Battlefield...                    Willard...
Strafford...                      Clever...
Sparta...                         Fair Grove...
Billings...                       Highlandville...
Fremont Hills...                  Brookline...
Glidewell...                      Turners...
Bois D'arc...                     Cave Springs...
Linden...                         Sacville...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 63 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3698 9334 3692 9361 3703 9362 3742 9343
      3741 9301 3686 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 277DEG 22KT 3742 9338 3694 9363

Hatch