Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Springfield, MO

491 
WWUS53 KSGF 280131
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
831 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

MOC097-109-145-280141-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0254.000000T0000Z-170528T0145Z/
Newton MO-Lawrence MO-Jasper MO-
831 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...LAWRENCE
AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore the warning has
been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Missouri.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3692 9447 3718 9432 3728 9406 3729 9389
      3728 9363 3728 9361 3706 9362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 249DEG 31KT 3707 9409 3728 9365 

$$

Boxell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Convection has been ongoing across the area for a couple of hours
now. Surface boundary extends from southern Illinois across
southern Missouri to a surface low over north-central Oklahoma.
The environment is extremely unstable with SBCAPE from our 18z
sounding over 5000 J/kg and 0-6km shear at around 50 kts.  This
initial round is starting to become more linear with outflow
pushing the boundary southward.

The second round looks to be developing both in southeast Kansas
and northeast Oklahoma per SPC discussions. Will need to monitor
this closely as models...such as the HRRR...are tending to keep
the convection tied to the surface boundary. If this were to
materialize...would need to monitor for training of cells and
locally heavy rainfall along this east-west boundary.

Surface front will begin to push through the area during the
morning hours on Sunday. Rain should be out of all but south-
central Missouri by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The upper level system then remains across the northern Great
Lakes region through Tuesday before an upper level ridge over the
western states begins to push it eastward. This will keep us in
northwest flow for the first half of the forecast period. Monday
and Tuesday should be dry but conditions will become unsettled
from Wednesday on.

By Thursday...an upper level trough begins to move out of the
desert southwest which will once again increase our rain chances.
Temperatures during the period will be at or slightly above
seasonal normals with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Second round of convection currently moving through the
area...mainly affecting KSGF/KJLN at this time but will be
affecting KBBG within the next hour or so. The main front should
start to pass through the area after 08z. The front will bring an
end to the thunderstorms but ceilings should lower to MVFR/IFR for
most the morning hours. Ceilings should begin to lift to VFR
after 18z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
424 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-282130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
424 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Tornado risk.
  Significant Hail risk.
  Significant Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Strong to severe storms will continue to impact the Ozarks
  late this afternoon into tonight as very strong instability
  and wind shear remain in place ahead of a surface boundary.

  The potential exists for supercell thunderstorms as storms
  initially begin to develop. If these supercells do form, hail
  up to the size of baseballs, damaging winds, and tornadoes
  will all be possible.

  The storms will eventually become more linear in nature as the
  cold pool develops and will become capable of producing
  widespread damaging wind gusts. Gusts over 75 mph will be
  possible. Tornadoes will also be possible with any portions of
  the line which bow towards the east. This has the potential to
  produce power outages.

  Along with the risk for severe thunderstorms, frequent
  lightning and locally heavy rainfall can be expected. Localized
  flooding of low water crossings will be possible where the
  heavier rainfall occurs. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
  through 7 AM Sunday. Localized rainfall amounts of up to 4
  inches will be possible if training storms develop.

  Those with outdoor plans tonight are urged to pay close
  attention to the weather and have a plan in place to move to a
  sturdy shelter when severe weather threatens.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

  A few lingering strong to severe storms will impact portions of
  south central Missouri Sunday morning before the system moves
  completely through the region. Large hail and damaging winds
  will be the primary concern.

  The next chance of storms comes towards the end of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
  the entire area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Gaede

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
744 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             WALNUT GROVE            37.42N 93.55W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             RACINE                  36.90N 94.53W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
749 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             LOCKWOOD                37.39N 93.95W
05/27/2017  E2.50 INCH       DADE               MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURES OF TENNIS BALL SIZE
            HAIL NEAR LOCKWOOD.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
753 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GALENA                  36.81N 93.46W
05/27/2017                   STONE              MO   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN GALENA AND CRANE.

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
756 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             4 SW DIAMOND            36.95N 94.37W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             1 N NEOSHO              36.88N 94.37W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

&&

TEO