Areal Flood Warning 49, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Convection has been ongoing across the area for a couple of hours
now. Surface boundary extends from southern Illinois across
southern Missouri to a surface low over north-central Oklahoma.
The environment is extremely unstable with SBCAPE from our 18z
sounding over 5000 J/kg and 0-6km shear at around 50 kts.  This
initial round is starting to become more linear with outflow
pushing the boundary southward.

The second round looks to be developing both in southeast Kansas
and northeast Oklahoma per SPC discussions. Will need to monitor
this closely as models...such as the HRRR...are tending to keep
the convection tied to the surface boundary. If this were to
materialize...would need to monitor for training of cells and
locally heavy rainfall along this east-west boundary.

Surface front will begin to push through the area during the
morning hours on Sunday. Rain should be out of all but south-
central Missouri by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The upper level system then remains across the northern Great
Lakes region through Tuesday before an upper level ridge over the
western states begins to push it eastward. This will keep us in
northwest flow for the first half of the forecast period. Monday
and Tuesday should be dry but conditions will become unsettled
from Wednesday on.

By Thursday...an upper level trough begins to move out of the
desert southwest which will once again increase our rain chances.
Temperatures during the period will be at or slightly above
seasonal normals with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Second round of convection currently moving through the
area...mainly affecting KSGF/KJLN at this time but will be
affecting KBBG within the next hour or so. The main front should
start to pass through the area after 08z. The front will bring an
end to the thunderstorms but ceilings should lower to MVFR/IFR for
most the morning hours. Ceilings should begin to lift to VFR
after 18z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1016 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-290330-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1016 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Strong to severe storms will impact far southern Missouri along
 the Arkansas border through Midnight. The most intense storms
 could produce hail up to the size of ping pong balls, damaging
 winds to 60 mph and possibly a tornado.

 The storms will gradually diminish with the potential for severe
 storms ending after midnight.

 Torrential rainfall associated with storms along the Arkansas
 border could lead to flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in
 effect for far southern Missouri overnight.

 Those with outdoor plans tonight are urged to pay close
 attention to the weather and have a plan in place to move to a
 sturdy shelter or to higher ground in case of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

 A few storms may linger across far southern Missouri into Sunday
 morning.

 The next chance of storms comes towards the end of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
  in far south central Missouri along the Arkansas border.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Foster

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
925 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRANSON                 36.64N 93.22W
05/27/2017                   TANEY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT SEVERAL ROADS
            FLOODED IN THE BRANSON AREA.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
941 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W BRANSON             36.64N 93.25W
05/27/2017                   TANEY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND FIRE DEPARTMENT
            REPORTS NUMEROUS HIGH WATER RESCUES ACROSS
            THE BRANSON AREA AT THIS TIME. PEOPLE
            TRAPPED IN CARS.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MCDOWELL                36.82N 93.79W
05/27/2017                   BARRY              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY C WAS CLOSED AT FLAT CREEK DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1048 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE TABLE ROCK        36.61N 93.29W
05/27/2017                   TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 165 WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
            SWIFT WATER RESCUES CONDUCTED AROUND THE
            BRANSON AREA.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1113 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE GENTRYVILLE       36.89N 92.35W
05/27/2017                   DOUGLAS            MO   PUBLIC

            PICTURES ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWED MINOR ROOF
            DAMAGE TO A BUSINESSES IN DOWNTOWN WEST
            PLAINS.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST PLAINS             36.73N 91.85W
05/27/2017                   HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

            PICTURES ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWED MINOR ROOF
            DAMAGE TO A BUSINESSES IN DOWNTOWN WEST
            PLAINS.

&&

MG