Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1154 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A significant change in weather pattern is expected. An MCS is
expected to move into the mid state region tonight. Grids adjusted
accordingly to show greatest impacts between 03z-06Z, and this
system should push out of the mid state quickly. Some strong to
svr tstms possible, especially sw with this quick moving MCS,
with damaging winds and large hail the main concern. Southwestern
portions of the mid state region will be most prone. A strong
cold front will eventually push thru mid state region tonight.
This will set the stage for bringing in a significant CAA pattern
to the mid state region Fri and into the weekend, as strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the mid state region. Dry
conditions are expected Fri into Fri night with temps now expected
to be a few degrees below seasonal normal values.

Otherwise, will just get to the point about the much anticipated
potential snowfall event on Saturday night. Per national WPC
guidance, went with a 12Z GFS/12Z EURO solution. Did a lot of
coordination with surrounding offices also. This all lead to
increasing the chance of accumulating snowfall across the mid
state after midnight on Sat night, with greatest potential of
accumulating snowfall across southern portions of the Cumberland
Plateau Region. Does not look like precipitation that will move
into the mid state region as Sat progresses will be of frozen
form, i.e. looks like best chance of light rain will not occur
until the afternoon hours. Expect a quick turn over to all
snowfall after sunset though. There is still a great deal of
uncertainty with this system, though, as is usually the case with
any late season March type of snowfall event, but it now looks
like all locations across the mid state will have the potential of
an accumulating snowfall event Sat night. Thus, as of this time,
in general, for locations along and east of Interstate 24 will
experience snowfall accumulations of one to two inches, with
locally higher amounts approaching three inches across the
Cumberland Plateau Region. Other locations will experience between
a half to around one inch of snowfall. Expecting all snowfall to
end by the mid morning hrs on Sun. After this system, an unsettled
wx pattern will continue Sun thru Thu of next week with a
continuance of seasonally cool temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CSV...CSV will see thunderstorms and showers through around 09z
Friday morning. Cigs will lower into at least MVFR heights through
12z Friday morning. Thunderstorms will contain gusty winds and
lightning. Showers may linger into Friday morning before skies
begin to clear and winds calm in the afternoon.

BNA...Although some lightning strikes and showers will be just
south of BNA until 07z the bulk of the activity has moved
southeast of the airport. Skies are expected to clear early Friday
morning as drier northerly flow sets in. Winds are expected to
remain gusty throughout the day.

CKV...Showers have moved southeast of CKV this evening. Other
than gusty southerly winds Friday morning and afternoon,
conditions will be VFR at CKV for the remainder of the TAF Period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101445-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
838 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight with the possibility
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and localized
damaging wind gusts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A storm system will pass through Middle Tennessee this weekend
with a good chance for snow late Saturday and Saturday night.
Areas along and north of Interstate 40 may see around an inch of
snow, with up to 2 inches along the Cumberland Plateau, and a
dusting of snow south of Interstate 40.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 mph (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1219 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISBURG               35.45N  86.79W
03/09/2017                   MARSHALL           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN IN LEWISBURG INCLUDING
            ONE ON A HOUSE. REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ON
            FAYETTEVILLE HIGHWAY NEAR BELFAST. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700177

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 SW SHELBYVILLE       35.40N  86.60W
03/09/2017                   BEDFORD            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME ON CORTNER HOLLOW ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700178

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1225 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 N MCMINNVILLE        35.83N  85.78W
03/10/2017                   WARREN             TN   911 CALL CENTER

            POWERLINES DOWN ON CAPSHAW ROAD IN WARREN COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700179

BW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1229 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 W LEWISBURG           35.45N  86.93W
03/09/2017                   MARSHALL           TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN IN MOORESVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700180

BW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1233 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISBURG               35.45N  86.79W
03/09/2017                   MARSHALL           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN LEWISBURG ON MIDWAY STREET

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700181

BW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1238 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSW COLUMBIA          35.53N  87.10W
03/09/2017                   MAURY              TN   FACEBOOK

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES ON PAMELA DRIVE IN COLUMBIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700182

BW