Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
627 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A significant change in weather pattern is expected. An MCS is
expected to move into the mid state region tonight. Grids adjusted
accordingly to show greatest impacts between 03z-06Z, and this
system should push out of the mid state quickly. Some strong to
svr tstms possible, especially sw with this quick moving MCS,
with damaging winds and large hail the main concern. Southwestern
portions of the mid state region will be most prone. A strong
cold front will eventually push thru mid state region tonight.
This will set the stage for bringing in a significant CAA pattern
to the mid state region Fri and into the weekend, as strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the mid state region. Dry
conditions are expected Fri into Fri night with temps now expected
to be a few degrees below seasonal normal values.

Otherwise, will just get to the point about the much anticipated
potential snowfall event on Saturday night. Per national WPC
guidance, went with a 12Z GFS/12Z EURO solution. Did a lot of
coordination with surrounding offices also. This all lead to
increasing the chance of accumulating snowfall across the mid
state after midnight on Sat night, with greatest potential of
accumulating snowfall across southern portions of the Cumberland
Plateau Region. Does not look like precipitation that will move
into the mid state region as Sat progresses will be of frozen
form, i.e. looks like best chance of light rain will not occur
until the afternoon hours. Expect a quick turn over to all
snowfall after sunset though. There is still a great deal of
uncertainty with this system, though, as is usually the case with
any late season March type of snowfall event, but it now looks
like all locations across the mid state will have the potential of
an accumulating snowfall event Sat night. Thus, as of this time,
in general, for locations along and east of Interstate 24 will
experience snowfall accumulations of one to two inches, with
locally higher amounts approaching three inches across the
Cumberland Plateau Region. Other locations will experience between
a half to around one inch of snowfall. Expecting all snowfall to
end by the mid morning hrs on Sun. After this system, an unsettled
wx pattern will continue Sun thru Thu of next week with a
continuance of seasonally cool temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west this evening.
Winds will gust out of the south and southwest to nearly 20 knots
or more as storms move through Middle Tennessee throughout the
evening. Best chance for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and
strong winds will be around 03z to 07z for CKV and BNA and 04z to
08z for CSV. Cigs will also be in the 1000 to 2000 feet range
through most of the overnight hours. Conditions will improve from
west to east from 12z to 18z as winds shift to northwesterly and
skies begin to clear.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101445-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
838 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight with the possibility
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and localized
damaging wind gusts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A storm system will pass through Middle Tennessee this weekend
with a good chance for snow late Saturday and Saturday night.
Areas along and north of Interstate 40 may see around an inch of
snow, with up to 2 inches along the Cumberland Plateau, and a
dusting of snow south of Interstate 40.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 mph (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1016 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             5 SSE MURFREESBORO      35.79N  86.37W
03/09/2017  E1.25 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RECEIVED A CALL FROM A SPOTER OF 1.50 HAIL ON ELAM
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700165

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1041 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW DOVER             36.41N  87.86W
03/09/2017                   STEWART            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES DOWN ON UPPER STANDING
            ROCK ROAD AND LEATHERWOOD ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED VIA
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700166

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             1 SSE BAXTER            36.14N  85.63W
03/09/2017  E0.88 INCH       PUTNAM             TN   PUBLIC

            CALLED THE LOVES TRUCK STOP AND GOT REPORT OF DIME TO
            NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700167

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1053 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     HAIL             COOKEVILLE              36.16N  85.51W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       PUTNAM             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 1 HAIL IN COOKEVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700168

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1113 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E BELLE MEADE         36.10N  86.82W
03/09/2017                   DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IN THE GREENHILLS AREA REPORTED TREES
            DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700169

FB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1116 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

TNZ032>034-066-100545-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-
1116 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OVERTON...NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHWESTERN FENTRESS COUNTIES
UNTIL 1145 PM CST...

At 1116 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Monterey, or 15 miles northwest of Crossville, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crossville, Fairfield Glade, Monterey, Slate Springs and Clarkrange.

LAT...LON 3601 8531 3619 8532 3625 8488 3621 8491
      3618 8490 3615 8491 3613 8487 3608 8483
      3610 8482 3609 8480 3605 8479 3601 8474
      3598 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 266DEG 34KT 3611 8523

Whitehead