Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
627 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A significant change in weather pattern is expected. An MCS is
expected to move into the mid state region tonight. Grids adjusted
accordingly to show greatest impacts between 03z-06Z, and this
system should push out of the mid state quickly. Some strong to
svr tstms possible, especially sw with this quick moving MCS,
with damaging winds and large hail the main concern. Southwestern
portions of the mid state region will be most prone. A strong
cold front will eventually push thru mid state region tonight.
This will set the stage for bringing in a significant CAA pattern
to the mid state region Fri and into the weekend, as strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the mid state region. Dry
conditions are expected Fri into Fri night with temps now expected
to be a few degrees below seasonal normal values.

Otherwise, will just get to the point about the much anticipated
potential snowfall event on Saturday night. Per national WPC
guidance, went with a 12Z GFS/12Z EURO solution. Did a lot of
coordination with surrounding offices also. This all lead to
increasing the chance of accumulating snowfall across the mid
state after midnight on Sat night, with greatest potential of
accumulating snowfall across southern portions of the Cumberland
Plateau Region. Does not look like precipitation that will move
into the mid state region as Sat progresses will be of frozen
form, i.e. looks like best chance of light rain will not occur
until the afternoon hours. Expect a quick turn over to all
snowfall after sunset though. There is still a great deal of
uncertainty with this system, though, as is usually the case with
any late season March type of snowfall event, but it now looks
like all locations across the mid state will have the potential of
an accumulating snowfall event Sat night. Thus, as of this time,
in general, for locations along and east of Interstate 24 will
experience snowfall accumulations of one to two inches, with
locally higher amounts approaching three inches across the
Cumberland Plateau Region. Other locations will experience between
a half to around one inch of snowfall. Expecting all snowfall to
end by the mid morning hrs on Sun. After this system, an unsettled
wx pattern will continue Sun thru Thu of next week with a
continuance of seasonally cool temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west this evening.
Winds will gust out of the south and southwest to nearly 20 knots
or more as storms move through Middle Tennessee throughout the
evening. Best chance for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and
strong winds will be around 03z to 07z for CKV and BNA and 04z to
08z for CSV. Cigs will also be in the 1000 to 2000 feet range
through most of the overnight hours. Conditions will improve from
west to east from 12z to 18z as winds shift to northwesterly and
skies begin to clear.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101445-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
838 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight with the possibility
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and localized
damaging wind gusts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A storm system will pass through Middle Tennessee this weekend
with a good chance for snow late Saturday and Saturday night.
Areas along and north of Interstate 40 may see around an inch of
snow, with up to 2 inches along the Cumberland Plateau, and a
dusting of snow south of Interstate 40.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 mph (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
743 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

TNZ026-027-100215-
Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
743 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DAVIDSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CST...

At 742 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pegram, or 8 miles south of Ashland City, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland City, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Kingston Springs,
Pegram, Berry Hill, Beaman Park, Bells Bend and Whites Creek.

LAT...LON 3609 8713 3618 8715 3630 8683 3607 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 258DEG 31KT 3615 8707

Whitehead

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
803 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             3 SW DICKSON            36.05N  87.42W
03/09/2017  E0.88 INCH       DICKSON            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700157

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
808 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             BURNS                   36.05N  87.31W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       DICKSON            TN   TWITTER

            PICTURE OF 1INCH HAIL IN DICKSON COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700158

FB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
812 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

TNZ005-006-100300-
Stewart TN-Montgomery TN-
812 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND STEWART
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CST...

At 811 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Dover, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Dover, Big Rock, Cumberland City, Land Between The
Lakes, Indian Mound, Palmyra, Cunningham and Woodlawn.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3667 8790 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8734
      3640 8725 3637 8760 3637 8772 3635 8773
      3634 8790 3635 8794 3635 8798 3651 8804
      3656 8803 3665 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 239DEG 49KT 3658 8790

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
828 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             WHITE BLUFF             36.11N  87.21W
03/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       DICKSON            TN   TWITTER

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700159

FB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
835 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

TNZ026-027-059-100300-
Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
835 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...NORTH
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CST...

At 835 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pegram, or 15 miles south of Ashland City, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brentwood, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Kingston Springs,
Pegram, Bellevue and Bells Bend.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CST for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3601 8711 3609 8715 3621 8685 3602 8671
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 254DEG 30KT 3606 8706

Whitehead