Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1154 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A significant change in weather pattern is expected. An MCS is
expected to move into the mid state region tonight. Grids adjusted
accordingly to show greatest impacts between 03z-06Z, and this
system should push out of the mid state quickly. Some strong to
svr tstms possible, especially sw with this quick moving MCS,
with damaging winds and large hail the main concern. Southwestern
portions of the mid state region will be most prone. A strong
cold front will eventually push thru mid state region tonight.
This will set the stage for bringing in a significant CAA pattern
to the mid state region Fri and into the weekend, as strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the mid state region. Dry
conditions are expected Fri into Fri night with temps now expected
to be a few degrees below seasonal normal values.

Otherwise, will just get to the point about the much anticipated
potential snowfall event on Saturday night. Per national WPC
guidance, went with a 12Z GFS/12Z EURO solution. Did a lot of
coordination with surrounding offices also. This all lead to
increasing the chance of accumulating snowfall across the mid
state after midnight on Sat night, with greatest potential of
accumulating snowfall across southern portions of the Cumberland
Plateau Region. Does not look like precipitation that will move
into the mid state region as Sat progresses will be of frozen
form, i.e. looks like best chance of light rain will not occur
until the afternoon hours. Expect a quick turn over to all
snowfall after sunset though. There is still a great deal of
uncertainty with this system, though, as is usually the case with
any late season March type of snowfall event, but it now looks
like all locations across the mid state will have the potential of
an accumulating snowfall event Sat night. Thus, as of this time,
in general, for locations along and east of Interstate 24 will
experience snowfall accumulations of one to two inches, with
locally higher amounts approaching three inches across the
Cumberland Plateau Region. Other locations will experience between
a half to around one inch of snowfall. Expecting all snowfall to
end by the mid morning hrs on Sun. After this system, an unsettled
wx pattern will continue Sun thru Thu of next week with a
continuance of seasonally cool temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CSV...CSV will see thunderstorms and showers through around 09z
Friday morning. Cigs will lower into at least MVFR heights through
12z Friday morning. Thunderstorms will contain gusty winds and
lightning. Showers may linger into Friday morning before skies
begin to clear and winds calm in the afternoon.

BNA...Although some lightning strikes and showers will be just
south of BNA until 07z the bulk of the activity has moved
southeast of the airport. Skies are expected to clear early Friday
morning as drier northerly flow sets in. Winds are expected to
remain gusty throughout the day.

CKV...Showers have moved southeast of CKV this evening. Other
than gusty southerly winds Friday morning and afternoon,
conditions will be VFR at CKV for the remainder of the TAF Period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101445-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
838 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight with the possibility
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and localized
damaging wind gusts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A storm system will pass through Middle Tennessee this weekend
with a good chance for snow late Saturday and Saturday night.
Areas along and north of Interstate 40 may see around an inch of
snow, with up to 2 inches along the Cumberland Plateau, and a
dusting of snow south of Interstate 40.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds > 50 mph (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW LAWRENCEBURG      35.26N  87.38W
03/09/2017  E70 MPH          LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED A 70 MPH WIND GUST AT DAVID CROCKET SCHOOL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700171

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1141 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW FRANKLIN          35.92N  86.89W
03/09/2017                   WILLIAMSON         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES DOWN ON TWIN OAKS
            DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700172

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                35.93N  86.84W
03/09/2017                   WILLIAMSON         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON ARNO ROAD NEAR TRINITY ROAD...TREE IN
            ROADWAY AT 4255 GOSEY HILL ROAD...AND TREE IN ROADWAY AT
            FRANKLIN ROAD AND MOORES LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700173

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 PM CST THU MAR 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SE LAWRENCEBURG       35.19N  87.28W
03/09/2017  E60 MPH          LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST IN REVILO .. MULTIPLE
            POWER OUTAGES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700174

FB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1203 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

TNZ063>065-078-080-100645-
Cannon TN-Van Buren TN-De Kalb TN-Warren TN-White TN-
1203 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB...
NORTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...WARREN...WESTERN WHITE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CST...

At 1203 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Smithville, moving east at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Smithville, Doyle, Centertown, Rock Island State Park
and Bakers Crossroads.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CST for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3568 8603 3604 8582 3603 8566 3601 8565
      3602 8565 3602 8564 3601 8549 3559 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 274DEG 46KT 3585 8583

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1209 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     HAIL             TULLAHOMA               35.37N  86.22W
03/10/2017  E1.25 INCH       COFFEE             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1700176

BW