Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
834 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.AVIATION...30/00z Taf Cycle

Convection wl cont to increase in areal coverage later this
evening and durg the overnight hours. VFR/MVFR conds wl prevail
outside of convection, with persistent storms producing IFR conds
at times. Assocd CDFNT wl push EWD acrs AR later on Sun with
improving conds as drier air advects into the region. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Surface low pressure was anchored over north central Texas this
afternoon, with a stationary boundary stretching northeast into
eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Ascent across this
region has led to a dramatic increase in convection this
afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms noted across
western, northwestern, and even north central Arkansas. Observed
rainfall rates have been in the 1.50 inch per hour range so far in
the heavier bands, with Highfill receiving over 2 inches between
17z-19z. Flash flooding has already become a concern, with
saturated soils and heavy rains leading to several water rescues
in the Fayetteville and Rogers areas already today.

Widespread 2-4 inch accumulations still appear likely across
central and northern Arkansas through the remainder of today and
tonight. This initial push of convection will be followed by a
second round later tonight as stronger forcing for ascent moves in
ahead of the upper low that will be approaching. As such, locally
heavier amounts will not be out of the question. Storm motions,
whether this afternoon, or with the cold front later tonight, will
be roughly parallel to the lines of convection so training cells
and resultant flash flooding will be an issue. Models are still
insistent on a PWAT plume of roughly 2" along the cold front later
tonight. In addition to northern Arkansas, suspect there will be
a considerable flash flooding threat in southern and southeastern
Arkansas tonight along the cold front as it moves through.

The other concern will be severe storms. The special release 18z
sounding shows and uncapped environment with considerable CAPE in
place, on the order of 3,700 J/kg. Any storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening will certainly have plenty of instability
to work with. The limiting factor will be shear as it pertains to
organized convection. Thus through this evening large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threat in addition to flash
flooding. While shear isn't the best this afternoon, it will
improve this evening and tonight ahead of the cold front as the
low level jet kicks in. Model soundings suggest convection for
central and southern Arkansas will still be surface-based, so the
threat of severe storms will remain well into the evening and
overnight hours.

By daybreak Sunday morning, the cold front will be in central to
eastern Arkansas and working its way eastward. Some convection
will lag the front but the risk of any strong to severe storms
will be nearly over with by daybreak I believe.

LONG TERM...Sunday night Through Saturday

On Sunday night, the cold front will be moving south and east of the
area, with cooler air moving in behind it. As the closed upper low
passes north of the area, there will be some wraparound cloud cover
but this should clear out Monday, with the beginning of the week
being fairly pleasant.

Speaking of the front, as it hits nearly parallel upper flow to the
south of the state, it will stall out. As an upper trough digs down
into the Rockies, the flow will amplify again, and this will push
the boundary back to the north as a warm front around Tuesday. The
front looks to stall out somewhere over Arkansas, with several waves
moving through and interacting with it. This will make showers and
thunderstorms a good possibility through the end of the week.

By late in the week, surface low pressure will form along the front,
which will give it momentum. Of course, it looks like there will be
a cutoff upper low dropping down into the southern plains into
possibly the Arklatex region which would also give it a push.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-White-
Woodruff.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-
Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-
Woodruff-Yell.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening FOR Bradley-Calhoun-
Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Lincoln-Ouachita.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
505 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301015-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
505 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible today and
tonight over much of Arkansas, as a frontal boundary and upper
level system move through the region. This morning mainly an
isolated strong to severe storm may be seen over northern
Arkansas, with damaging winds and large hail the main factors.
Later Saturday, the upper system and cold front gradually move
across Arkansas, and additional strong to severe thunderstorms
will develop later this afternoon, evening and into the overnight
hours. Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be
possible with the system and cold front.

Also, moisture levels will increased significantly and very heavy
rain will be seen, especially over western to northern areas of
Arkansas. A bit less over central and southern areas. Rain amounts
of 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts will be possible
today and tonight over northern areas, while 1 to 3 inches with a
few isolated higher amounts will be seen over central and southern
areas. These heavy rain amounts will lead to flash and river
flooding over many parts of Arkansas. Residents need to follow the
latest statements and possible warnings during this dangerous
weather situation.

A flash flood watch is in effect for the expected heavy rain,
while winds will be elevated over mainly the eastern half of
Arkansas, and a lake wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

A line of thunderstorms should be exiting eastern Arkansas Sunday
morning. Any severe thunderstorms will quickly weaken or move out of
the area. The main severe threats would be damaging winds or large
hail. Drier air moves into the state in the afternoon diminishing
rain chances.

The next system will arrive with a warm front Wednesday. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night continuing into
Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this system at
this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed later today through early
Sunday. Please monitor the latest forecasts over the next couple
of days.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59/51

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
750 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ043-044-054-055-300130-
Pulaski AR-Hot Spring AR-Grant AR-Saline AR-
750 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANT...CENTRAL
SALINE...WEST CENTRAL PULASKI AND NORTHEASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTIES
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 750 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Poyen, or 9 miles southeast of Malvern, moving north at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Rock...                    Benton...
West Little Rock...               Bryant...
Haskell...                        Traskwood...
Tull...                           Prattsville...
Poyen...                          Perla...
Otter Creek...                    Jenkins Ferry State Park...
Chenal Valley...                  Thiel...
Salem in Saline County...         Alexander...
Bauxite...                        Avilla...
Gifford...                        Shaw...

LAT...LON 3420 9258 3425 9279 3481 9272 3479 9239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 194DEG 35KT 3430 9267

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
757 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ014-016-023-024-032-033-300145-
White AR-Stone AR-Independence AR-Van Buren AR-Faulkner AR-
Cleburne AR-
757 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STONE...SOUTHWESTERN
INDEPENDENCE...EASTERN VAN BUREN...CLEBURNE...NORTHEASTERN CONWAY...
NORTHEASTERN FAULKNER AND NORTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM
CDT...

At 757 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Choctaw to near Rose Bud to Gravel Hill.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Heber Springs...                  Mountain View...
Clinton...                        Fairfield Bay...
Greers Ferry...                   Quitman...
Pangburn...                       Rose Bud...
Pleasant Plains...                Shirley...
Concord...                        Higden...
Crosby...                         Sugar Loaf Recreation Area...
Fairfield Bay Marina...           Gravel Hill...
Steprock...                       Fairbanks...
Old Lexington...                  Choctaw...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 9179 3557 9152 3553 9157 3552 9159
      3551 9158 3514 9195 3532 9215 3544 9248
      3546 9248 3547 9257 3598 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 211DEG 29KT 3550 9245 3538 9212 3525 9197

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
817 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ047-057-300145-
Monroe AR-Arkansas AR-
817 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 817 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of St. Charles, or 16 miles south of Clarendon,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Holly Grove...                    Almyra...
St. Charles...                    Palmer...
De Witt...                        Blackton...
Ethel...                          Almyra Airport...
Monroe...                         Casscoe...
Crocketts Bluff...                Ragtown...
Indian Bay...                     Pine City...
Lodge Corner...                   Lawrenceville...
Duncan...                         Cross Roads in Monroe County...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 9106 3432 9106 3431 9105 3427 9107
      3426 9160 3481 9110 3474 9110 3473 9105
      3447 9105 3447 9100 3434 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 220DEG 41KT 3447 9120

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
835 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     HAIL             AVILLA                  34.68N 92.58W
04/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       SALINE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

65

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
915 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ037-040-041-300300-
Polk AR-Scott AR-Montgomery AR-
915 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...SOUTHWESTERN
YELL...POLK AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 915 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grannis, or 15 miles north of De Queen, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Waldron...
Mount Ida...                      Wickes...
Grannis...                        Hatfield...
Oden...                           Vandervoort...
Opal...                           Mimosa...
Little Missouri Falls Recreatio...
Cossatot River State Park...
Polk County Fairgrounds...        Mena Intermountain Airport...
Mccauley...                       Shady...
Hartley...                        Bard Springs Recreation Area...
Caney Creek Wilderness...         Mauldin...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3456 9446 3497 9403 3477 9370 3475 9371
      3474 9366 3463 9347 3434 9396 3435 9398
      3436 9425 3421 9424 3419 9425 3419 9443
      3422 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 226DEG 58KT 3425 9444

Brown