Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue
across much of the area into the morning. The cold front will move
through the state today and rain will taper off behind the front.
Mainly MVFR and IFR conditions are expected into the morninig. VFR
conditions will return by Sunday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 834 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
)

AVIATION...30/00z Taf Cycle

Convection wl cont to increase in areal coverage later this
evening and durg the overnight hours. VFR/MVFR conds wl prevail
outside of convection, with persistent storms producing IFR conds
at times. Assocd CDFNT wl push EWD acrs AR later on Sun with
improving conds as drier air advects into the region. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Surface low pressure was anchored over north central Texas this
afternoon, with a stationary boundary stretching northeast into
eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Ascent across this
region has led to a dramatic increase in convection this
afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms noted across
western, northwestern, and even north central Arkansas. Observed
rainfall rates have been in the 1.50 inch per hour range so far in
the heavier bands, with Highfill receiving over 2 inches between
17z-19z. Flash flooding has already become a concern, with
saturated soils and heavy rains leading to several water rescues
in the Fayetteville and Rogers areas already today.

Widespread 2-4 inch accumulations still appear likely across
central and northern Arkansas through the remainder of today and
tonight. This initial push of convection will be followed by a
second round later tonight as stronger forcing for ascent moves in
ahead of the upper low that will be approaching. As such, locally
heavier amounts will not be out of the question. Storm motions,
whether this afternoon, or with the cold front later tonight, will
be roughly parallel to the lines of convection so training cells
and resultant flash flooding will be an issue. Models are still
insistent on a PWAT plume of roughly 2" along the cold front later
tonight. In addition to northern Arkansas, suspect there will be
a considerable flash flooding threat in southern and southeastern
Arkansas tonight along the cold front as it moves through.

The other concern will be severe storms. The special release 18z
sounding shows and uncapped environment with considerable CAPE in
place, on the order of 3,700 J/kg. Any storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening will certainly have plenty of instability
to work with. The limiting factor will be shear as it pertains to
organized convection. Thus through this evening large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threat in addition to flash
flooding. While shear isn't the best this afternoon, it will
improve this evening and tonight ahead of the cold front as the
low level jet kicks in. Model soundings suggest convection for
central and southern Arkansas will still be surface-based, so the
threat of severe storms will remain well into the evening and
overnight hours.

By daybreak Sunday morning, the cold front will be in central to
eastern Arkansas and working its way eastward. Some convection
will lag the front but the risk of any strong to severe storms
will be nearly over with by daybreak I believe.

LONG TERM...Sunday night Through Saturday

On Sunday night, the cold front will be moving south and east of the
area, with cooler air moving in behind it. As the closed upper low
passes north of the area, there will be some wraparound cloud cover
but this should clear out Monday, with the beginning of the week
being fairly pleasant.

Speaking of the front, as it hits nearly parallel upper flow to the
south of the state, it will stall out. As an upper trough digs down
into the Rockies, the flow will amplify again, and this will push
the boundary back to the north as a warm front around Tuesday. The
front looks to stall out somewhere over Arkansas, with several waves
moving through and interacting with it. This will make showers and
thunderstorms a good possibility through the end of the week.

By late in the week, surface low pressure will form along the front,
which will give it momentum. Of course, it looks like there will be
a cutoff upper low dropping down into the southern plains into
possibly the Arklatex region which would also give it a push.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-
Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-
White-Woodruff.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
1102 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms...some severe...will continue
through tonight. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated tornadoes will also be possible with the cold front. With a
very moist atmosphere, very heavy rain will be seen through the
night in most areas. 1 to 3 inches are expected in the south with 3
to 6 inches elsewhwhere...with isolated higher amounts.

These heavy rain amounts will lead to flash flooding and river
flooding over many parts of Arkansas. Residents need to follow the
latest statements and possible warnings during this dangerous
weather situation. A flash flood watch is in effect for the expected
heavy rain. Winds will be elevated over mainly the eastern half of
Arkansas, and a lake wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

A line of thunderstorms should be exiting eastern Arkansas Sunday
morning. Any severe thunderstorms will quickly weaken or move out of
the area. The main severe threats would be damaging winds or large
hail. Drier air moves into the state in the afternoon diminishing
rain chances.

The next system will arrive with a warm front Wednesday. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night continuing into
Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this system at
this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed later today through early
Sunday. Please monitor the latest forecasts over the next couple
of days.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59/51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
227 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N SPRINGFIELD         35.29N  92.56W
04/29/2017                   CONWAY             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 92... 9... AND 64 FLOODED WITH 2 WATER RESCUES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700106

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW BRUMLEY           35.07N  92.43W
04/29/2017                   FAULKNER           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            470 E ROBINS RD IN CONWAY FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700107

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW OAK FOREST        34.75N  92.35W
04/30/2017                   PULASKI            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700108

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW CRYSTAL HILL      34.81N  92.34W
04/30/2017                   PULASKI            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700109

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARKS                   34.80N 93.95W
04/29/2017                   SCOTT              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE HIGHWAY NEAR THE TOWN OF PARKS

&&

MBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PERRY                   35.04N  92.79W
04/30/2017                   PERRY              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGHWAY 10 AND SMITH CROSSINGS ROAD WEST OF PERRY
            REPORTED FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1700110

CROSS