Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
834 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.AVIATION...30/00z Taf Cycle

Convection wl cont to increase in areal coverage later this
evening and durg the overnight hours. VFR/MVFR conds wl prevail
outside of convection, with persistent storms producing IFR conds
at times. Assocd CDFNT wl push EWD acrs AR later on Sun with
improving conds as drier air advects into the region. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Surface low pressure was anchored over north central Texas this
afternoon, with a stationary boundary stretching northeast into
eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Ascent across this
region has led to a dramatic increase in convection this
afternoon, with numerous showers and thunderstorms noted across
western, northwestern, and even north central Arkansas. Observed
rainfall rates have been in the 1.50 inch per hour range so far in
the heavier bands, with Highfill receiving over 2 inches between
17z-19z. Flash flooding has already become a concern, with
saturated soils and heavy rains leading to several water rescues
in the Fayetteville and Rogers areas already today.

Widespread 2-4 inch accumulations still appear likely across
central and northern Arkansas through the remainder of today and
tonight. This initial push of convection will be followed by a
second round later tonight as stronger forcing for ascent moves in
ahead of the upper low that will be approaching. As such, locally
heavier amounts will not be out of the question. Storm motions,
whether this afternoon, or with the cold front later tonight, will
be roughly parallel to the lines of convection so training cells
and resultant flash flooding will be an issue. Models are still
insistent on a PWAT plume of roughly 2" along the cold front later
tonight. In addition to northern Arkansas, suspect there will be
a considerable flash flooding threat in southern and southeastern
Arkansas tonight along the cold front as it moves through.

The other concern will be severe storms. The special release 18z
sounding shows and uncapped environment with considerable CAPE in
place, on the order of 3,700 J/kg. Any storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening will certainly have plenty of instability
to work with. The limiting factor will be shear as it pertains to
organized convection. Thus through this evening large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threat in addition to flash
flooding. While shear isn't the best this afternoon, it will
improve this evening and tonight ahead of the cold front as the
low level jet kicks in. Model soundings suggest convection for
central and southern Arkansas will still be surface-based, so the
threat of severe storms will remain well into the evening and
overnight hours.

By daybreak Sunday morning, the cold front will be in central to
eastern Arkansas and working its way eastward. Some convection
will lag the front but the risk of any strong to severe storms
will be nearly over with by daybreak I believe.

LONG TERM...Sunday night Through Saturday

On Sunday night, the cold front will be moving south and east of the
area, with cooler air moving in behind it. As the closed upper low
passes north of the area, there will be some wraparound cloud cover
but this should clear out Monday, with the beginning of the week
being fairly pleasant.

Speaking of the front, as it hits nearly parallel upper flow to the
south of the state, it will stall out. As an upper trough digs down
into the Rockies, the flow will amplify again, and this will push
the boundary back to the north as a warm front around Tuesday. The
front looks to stall out somewhere over Arkansas, with several waves
moving through and interacting with it. This will make showers and
thunderstorms a good possibility through the end of the week.

By late in the week, surface low pressure will form along the front,
which will give it momentum. Of course, it looks like there will be
a cutoff upper low dropping down into the southern plains into
possibly the Arklatex region which would also give it a push.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-
Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-White-
Woodruff.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-
Boone-Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-
Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-
Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-
Woodruff-Yell.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening FOR Bradley-Calhoun-
Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Lincoln-Ouachita.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
1102 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms...some severe...will continue
through tonight. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated tornadoes will also be possible with the cold front. With a
very moist atmosphere, very heavy rain will be seen through the
night in most areas. 1 to 3 inches are expected in the south with 3
to 6 inches elsewhwhere...with isolated higher amounts.

These heavy rain amounts will lead to flash flooding and river
flooding over many parts of Arkansas. Residents need to follow the
latest statements and possible warnings during this dangerous
weather situation. A flash flood watch is in effect for the expected
heavy rain. Winds will be elevated over mainly the eastern half of
Arkansas, and a lake wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

A line of thunderstorms should be exiting eastern Arkansas Sunday
morning. Any severe thunderstorms will quickly weaken or move out of
the area. The main severe threats would be damaging winds or large
hail. Drier air moves into the state in the afternoon diminishing
rain chances.

The next system will arrive with a warm front Wednesday. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night continuing into
Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this system at
this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed later today through early
Sunday. Please monitor the latest forecasts over the next couple
of days.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59/51

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
936 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ016-024-033-045-300315-
White AR-Independence AR-Lonoke AR-Cleburne AR-
936 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE...
NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE...SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE...NORTH CENTRAL LONOKE
AND CENTRAL WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 936 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Beebe, or 11 miles northeast of Cabot, moving north at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cabot...                          Searcy...
Beebe...                          Ward...
Austin in Lonoke County...        Pangburn...
Old Austin...                     Crosby...
Gravel Hill...                    Steprock...
Sylvania...                       McRae...
Garner...                         Letona...
Albion...                         Antioch in White County...
Hickory Flat...                   Wilburn...
Dewey...                          Sidon...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 9158 3492 9185 3503 9206 3561 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 197DEG 34KT 3512 9192

62

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
958 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ025-033-034-046-300345-
White AR-Prairie AR-Woodruff AR-Jackson AR-
958 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDEPENDENCE...
WOODRUFF...NORTHEASTERN PRAIRIE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 958 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Des Arc, moving north at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Augusta...                        Des Arc...
Patterson...                      Tupelo...
McCrory...                        McFadden...
Hurricane Lake WMA...             Bradford...
Beedeville...                     Weldon...
Becton...                         Shoffner...
Howell...                         McClelland...
Gregory...                        Grays...
Fitzhugh...                       Pumpkin Bend...
Worden...                         Morton...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 9134 3501 9158 3553 9144 3553 9137
      3543 9104 3530 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 202DEG 29KT 3507 9146

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1023 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORMAN                  34.46N 93.68W
04/29/2017                   MONTGOMERY         AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS THAT CARS ARE FLOATING OUT OF PEOPLES DRIVEWAYS
            IN NORMAN.

&&

65

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1101 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ016-024-025-033-300445-
White AR-Independence AR-Jackson AR-Cleburne AR-
1101 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN INDEPENDENCE...
NORTHWESTERN WOODRUFF...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...EASTERN CLEBURNE AND
NORTHERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1100 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Concord to near Pangburn
to near Gravel Hill. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Batesville...                     Newark...
Pangburn...                       Pleasant Plains...
Oil Trough...                     Concord...
Russell...                        Jacksonport...
Magness...                        Moorefield...
Salado...                         Gravel Hill...
Steprock...                       Southside in Independence Count...
Crosby...                         Bradford...
Sulphur Rock...                   Letona...
Albion...                         Almond...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
eastern, central and north central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 9143 3525 9201 3544 9188 3567 9195
      3582 9146 3574 9127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 238DEG 30KT 3575 9193 3548 9182 3522 9203

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1151 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CONWAY                  35.09N 92.45W
04/29/2017                   FAULKNER           AR   PUBLIC

            A NUMBER OF ROADS IN THE CITY OF CONWAY ARE UNDER WATER
            AND IMPASSIBLE.

&&

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MT IDA                  34.55N 93.63W
04/29/2017                   MONTGOMERY         AR   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL ROADS AROUND MOUNT IDA WERE COVERED BY SEVERAL
            FEET OF WATER AND IMPASSIBLE.

&&

44