Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
343 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first period severe storm
threat and flash flooding and river flooding. Several severe
storms were seen Saturday evening and into the overnight, as well
as storm complexes with very heavy rain causing flooding. The
current storms are gradually moving east-northeast, and mainly
producing heavy rain and flash flooding. An isolated severe storm
still may be seen in the next few hours, but trends are showing a
lowering threat of severe storms. The surface cold front was over
western AR, while aloft the main core of lift is pushing across
AR. The upper low pressure system was over western OK and will
gradually move east on Sunday, with a much lower chance of light
convection on Sunday. Winds were still south to southeast ahead of
the cold front, with warm temperatures in the 60s and some 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

The first period will continue a high chance of showers and
thunderstorms, with heavy rain possible with the stronger storms.
Flooding will be on-going and the flash flood watch will continue
to Sunday evening. Winds will gradually become elevated ahead and
behind the cold front, and a lake wind advisory will be in effect
for much of eastern AR. The lake wind advisory may need to be
extended into Sunday night if winds remain elevated. The upper
low pressure will gradually move from OK to the upper mid- west,
and lighter showers will be seen over northern areas even late on
Sunday. Temperatures will start mild, then only rise a bit before
cooler and drier air filters into AR later Sunday night and on
Monday. Dry and breezy weather conditions on Monday as surface
high pressure builds into the southern Plain. Temperatures Monday
morning will be in the 40s to 50s, while highs in the 60s to 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Northwest flow will be over a good portion of the country as an
upper low moves through the Great Lakes. Zonal flow returns to
Arkansas Tuesday night as a ridge builds over the west coast. An
upper trough develops in the Plains Wednesday and moves across
Arkansas Thursday, forms a closed low and moves eastward Friday
and reaches the east coast by late Saturday.

A warm front will stall over Arkansas for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain chances will increase as moisture builds back into the area.
Expect small chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and
better chances on Wednesday. Low pressure moving across the area
will drag a cold front through the state late Wednesday and early
Thursday. Drier air behind the front will limit rain chances for
Friday and Saturday. Above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday
but the rest of the long term temperatures will be below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  46  70  51 /  90  10   0   0
Camden AR         69  47  76  53 /  50  10   0   0
Harrison AR       65  42  67  49 /  50  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    67  46  74  52 /  40  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  70  48  73  53 /  70  10   0   0
Monticello AR     71  51  76  54 /  90  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  45  73  51 /  30  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  69  44  68  49 /  60  10  10   0
Newport AR        72  49  70  51 /  90  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     70  49  74  54 /  80  10   0   0
Russellville AR   68  45  72  51 /  50  10   0   0
Searcy AR         71  47  72  50 /  80  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      71  50  73  54 /  90  10   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-
Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-
White-Woodruff.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

Short Term...59 / Long Term...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms...some severe...will continue
this morning mainly over the eastern half of Arkansas. Damaging wind
is the main threat with these storms. Also, large hail and isolated
tornadoes are possible. The cold front will move through the state
today and strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along the
front. With a very moist atmosphere, very heavy rain will be seen
through the morning in at least the eastern half of the area. 1 to 3
inches are expected in these areas.

These heavy rain amounts will lead to flash flooding and river
flooding over many parts of Arkansas. Residents need to follow the
latest statements and possible warnings during this dangerous
weather situation. A flash flood watch is in effect for the expected
heavy rain. Winds will be elevated over mainly the eastern half of
Arkansas, and a lake wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

A line of thunderstorms should be exiting eastern Arkansas Sunday
morning. Any severe thunderstorms will quickly weaken or move out of
the area. The main severe threats would be damaging winds or large
hail. Drier air moves into the state in the afternoon diminishing
rain chances.

The next system will arrive with a warm front Wednesday. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night continuing into
Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this system at
this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed later today through early
Sunday. Please monitor the latest forecasts over the next couple
of days.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59/51

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