Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Lubbock, TX

812 
WWUS54 KLUB 150251
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
951 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

TXC069-150300-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170415T0300Z/
Castro TX-
951 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR CASTRO COUNTY...

At 950 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Dimmitt, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. 

Locations impacted include...
Dimmitt, Easter and Nazareth. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 10200 3441 10200 3437 10235 3444 10250
      3461 10242 3475 10237 3475 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 252DEG 15KT 3455 10216 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

01

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should persist through the evening but IFR is a
possibility toward sunrise on Saturday morning. A strong
thunderstorm located NW of KPVW should remain north of that
terminal. Winds may increase in a local zone of convergence to the
south and southeast of convective activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

UPDATE...
Minor update to raise PoPs significantly around and just
downstream of the current slow-moving severe thunderstorm over
western Castro County. Given the slow storm motion heavy/flooding
rains is also an increasing concern in addition to the severe
threat. The activity should gradually wane by mid-late evening as
it moves into an increasingly capped environment and the BL cools.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The Saturday afternoon setup will be similar to today's. We will
still be dealing with capping issues but farther to the east.
Convection will largely be conditional again. A very narrow swath of
uncapped air may exist just east of the dryline. The dryline will
mix farther to the east to somewhere around the I27/US87 corridor.
Areas east of the dryline will be stuck with low stratus for much of
the day until some clearing by mid afternoon initially limiting
instabilities and maximizing capping. Very strong instabilities will
exist east of the dryline with good low level shear. Large scale
forcing will be lacking again relying on dryline convergence to
initiate convection. A cold front will be moving through the Texas
Panhandle during the afternoon. This will maximize low level
convergence north of the area in the eastern Texas Panhandle.

LONG TERM...
Any isolated convection Saturday afternoon should quickly fade as
instability wanes and inhibition increases during the mid-late
evening hours. The first half of Easter should then start out on the
mild and quiet side. However a weak cold front/surface boundary is
progged to sag into the northern or central zones before stalling
out and this along with the attendant dryline south of the front and
perhaps weak upper support within modest west-southwest flow aloft
should spur scattered storm development during the afternoon and
evening hours. Good moisture/instability along with sufficient deep
layer shear along the front and east of the dryline could support
robust updrafts and the risk of severe weather. The front/boundary
should wash out on Monday, but we will hang on to a risk of isolated
afternoon/evening convection along and east of the dryline which
will likely be located near or east of the edge of the Caprock.

Beyond Monday brief low amplitude ridging aloft along with a further
eastward push to the afternoon dryline position should keep the CWA
dry Tuesday and Wednesday. After that it becomes less clear as a
storm system is expected to approach through the Great Basin before
closing off and emerging across the High Plains late week. A
northern CONUS shortwave trough is forecast to drop a backdoor cold
front into or through the FA on Thursday. Lift ahead of the
system will renew shower and storm chances along and north of the
boundary late Thursday or Thursday night. Beyond that all will
depend on the track of the upper low. The latest GFS and ECMWF
favor a track north of the CWA which would quickly dry slot the FA
and bring an end to storm chances /aside from perhaps a little
light wrap around moisture if the low isn't too far north per the
ECMWF/. If you are hoping for more widespread and long-duration
rainfall, the Canadian is the winner this afternoon stalling the
low to our west while sinking slowly southward from Friday through
the weekend. This would result in a cool and soggy weekend,
though at this point it looks like a very low probability outcome.
Time will tell, but for now have included 20-30 PoPs from late
Thursday through Friday.

Temperatures through most or all of the extended will reside on the
warm side of average with Tuesday and Wednesday likely the warmest
of the days when highs well into the 80s /perhaps a few lower 90s/
are expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1115 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

TXZ021>044-151615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1115 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across the southwestern Texas
Panhandle and the western South Plains, generally along and west
of a Tulia to Tahoka line. The main severe threats will be hail up
to tennis ball size and winds up to 70 mph. Additionally, isolated
tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated late-day severe thunderstorms could affect areas east of
the Caprock escarpment on Saturday. A greater coverage of severe
storms is possible across a broader portion of the South Plains
area on Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front enters the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
750 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TORNADO          4 N DIMMITT             34.61N 102.31W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TORNADO OBSERVED BY STORM SPOTTER. LOCATION
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700121

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
801 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE DIMMITT            34.57N 102.29W
04/14/2017  M60 MPH          CASTRO             TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET MEASURED A SOUTHERLY INFLOW WIND
            GUST TO 60 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700122

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
807 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TORNADO          6 W DIMMITT             34.55N 102.42W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF ROPE TORNADO NOTED IN CHASER VIDEO FEED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700123

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
823 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW DIMMITT            34.56N 102.33W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   PUBLIC

            POWER POLE SNAPPED ABOUT 10 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
            TIME OF DAMAGE IS UNKNOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700124

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
840 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             DIMMITT                 34.55N 102.31W
04/14/2017  E1.00 INCH       CASTRO             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FALLING IN DIMMITT
            CURRENTLY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700125

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
925 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             1 N DIMMITT             34.56N 102.31W
04/14/2017  E2.80 INCH       CASTRO             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700126

GDS