Tornado Warning 20, NWS Lubbock, TX

383 
WWUS54 KLUB 150429
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1129 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

TXC189-437-150445-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170415T0445Z/
Hale TX-Swisher TX-
1129 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL HALE AND SOUTHWESTERN SWISHER COUNTIES...
    
At 1128 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles north of Halfway, or 10 miles southeast of Hart, 
moving south at 10 mph. A new rotation has developed to the 
northwest of Edmonson.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Halfway around 1145 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Edmonson and Seth Ward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 10203 3436 10193 3423 10167 3410 10189
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 343DEG 8KT 3431 10196 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

01

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should persist through the evening but IFR is a
possibility toward sunrise on Saturday morning. A strong
thunderstorm located NW of KPVW should remain north of that
terminal. Winds may increase in a local zone of convergence to the
south and southeast of convective activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

UPDATE...
Minor update to raise PoPs significantly around and just
downstream of the current slow-moving severe thunderstorm over
western Castro County. Given the slow storm motion heavy/flooding
rains is also an increasing concern in addition to the severe
threat. The activity should gradually wane by mid-late evening as
it moves into an increasingly capped environment and the BL cools.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The Saturday afternoon setup will be similar to today's. We will
still be dealing with capping issues but farther to the east.
Convection will largely be conditional again. A very narrow swath of
uncapped air may exist just east of the dryline. The dryline will
mix farther to the east to somewhere around the I27/US87 corridor.
Areas east of the dryline will be stuck with low stratus for much of
the day until some clearing by mid afternoon initially limiting
instabilities and maximizing capping. Very strong instabilities will
exist east of the dryline with good low level shear. Large scale
forcing will be lacking again relying on dryline convergence to
initiate convection. A cold front will be moving through the Texas
Panhandle during the afternoon. This will maximize low level
convergence north of the area in the eastern Texas Panhandle.

LONG TERM...
Any isolated convection Saturday afternoon should quickly fade as
instability wanes and inhibition increases during the mid-late
evening hours. The first half of Easter should then start out on the
mild and quiet side. However a weak cold front/surface boundary is
progged to sag into the northern or central zones before stalling
out and this along with the attendant dryline south of the front and
perhaps weak upper support within modest west-southwest flow aloft
should spur scattered storm development during the afternoon and
evening hours. Good moisture/instability along with sufficient deep
layer shear along the front and east of the dryline could support
robust updrafts and the risk of severe weather. The front/boundary
should wash out on Monday, but we will hang on to a risk of isolated
afternoon/evening convection along and east of the dryline which
will likely be located near or east of the edge of the Caprock.

Beyond Monday brief low amplitude ridging aloft along with a further
eastward push to the afternoon dryline position should keep the CWA
dry Tuesday and Wednesday. After that it becomes less clear as a
storm system is expected to approach through the Great Basin before
closing off and emerging across the High Plains late week. A
northern CONUS shortwave trough is forecast to drop a backdoor cold
front into or through the FA on Thursday. Lift ahead of the
system will renew shower and storm chances along and north of the
boundary late Thursday or Thursday night. Beyond that all will
depend on the track of the upper low. The latest GFS and ECMWF
favor a track north of the CWA which would quickly dry slot the FA
and bring an end to storm chances /aside from perhaps a little
light wrap around moisture if the low isn't too far north per the
ECMWF/. If you are hoping for more widespread and long-duration
rainfall, the Canadian is the winner this afternoon stalling the
low to our west while sinking slowly southward from Friday through
the weekend. This would result in a cool and soggy weekend,
though at this point it looks like a very low probability outcome.
Time will tell, but for now have included 20-30 PoPs from late
Thursday through Friday.

Temperatures through most or all of the extended will reside on the
warm side of average with Tuesday and Wednesday likely the warmest
of the days when highs well into the 80s /perhaps a few lower 90s/
are expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1115 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

TXZ021>044-151615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1115 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across the southwestern Texas
Panhandle and the western South Plains, generally along and west
of a Tulia to Tahoka line. The main severe threats will be hail up
to tennis ball size and winds up to 70 mph. Additionally, isolated
tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated late-day severe thunderstorms could affect areas east of
the Caprock escarpment on Saturday. A greater coverage of severe
storms is possible across a broader portion of the South Plains
area on Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front enters the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
925 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             1 N DIMMITT             34.56N 102.31W
04/14/2017  E2.80 INCH       CASTRO             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700126

GDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1001 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

TXZ025-026-150330-
Childress TX-Hall TX-
1001 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHILDRESS AND
NORTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Memphis, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Memphis and Estelline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 10000 3450 10047 3475 10056 3475 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 250DEG 32KT 3464 10038

23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1012 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HAIL             NAZARETH                34.54N 102.10W
04/14/2017  E1.75 INCH       CASTRO             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700127

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N HART                34.42N 102.11W
04/14/2017  M80 MPH          CASTRO             TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY THE TEXAS TECH MESONET. THE 1050 PM
            OBSERVATION HAS A WIND GUST TO 77 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700128

GDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1109 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

TXZ025-026-150445-
Childress TX-Hall TX-
1109 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHILDRESS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1109 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Tell, or 14 miles northwest of Childress, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Childress and Estelline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 10009 3438 10053 3457 10059 3475 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 250DEG 22KT 3452 10047

23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1115 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NW DIMMITT            34.61N 102.39W
04/14/2017  M4.88 INCH       CASTRO             TX   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN MEASURED AT A PIVOT IRRIGATION SITE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700129

GDS