Tornado Warning 19, NWS Lubbock, TX

014 
WWUS54 KLUB 150136
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
836 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

TXC069-150200-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170415T0200Z/
Castro TX-
836 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
CASTRO COUNTY...
    
At 835 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 
was located near Dimmitt, moving east at 15 mph.  The circulation 
was located about 2 miles south southeast of Dimmitt.  An additional 
area of concern was located about 8 miles northeast of Dimmitt.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northern Castro County, including the following locations: Nazareth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10200 3446 10209 3448 10252 3475 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 279DEG 14KT 3451 10228 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

01

783 
WWUS54 KLUB 150150
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
850 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

TXC069-150200-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170415T0200Z/
Castro TX-
850 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
CASTRO COUNTY...
    
At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 
was located near Dimmitt, moving east at 10 mph.  The greatest area 
of concern is about 3 miles southeast of Dimmitt.  A second area of 
rotation was located about 12 miles west of Dimmitt.  These storms 
continue to evolve and require constant monitoring.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Dimmitt, Easter and Nazareth. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10200 3446 10209 3448 10252 3464 10252
      3475 10231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 279DEG 9KT 3451 10226 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

$$

01

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should persist through the evening but IFR is a
possibility toward sunrise on Saturday morning. A strong
thunderstorm located NW of KPVW should remain north of that
terminal. Winds may increase in a local zone of convergence to the
south and southeast of convective activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

UPDATE...
Minor update to raise PoPs significantly around and just
downstream of the current slow-moving severe thunderstorm over
western Castro County. Given the slow storm motion heavy/flooding
rains is also an increasing concern in addition to the severe
threat. The activity should gradually wane by mid-late evening as
it moves into an increasingly capped environment and the BL cools.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The Saturday afternoon setup will be similar to today's. We will
still be dealing with capping issues but farther to the east.
Convection will largely be conditional again. A very narrow swath of
uncapped air may exist just east of the dryline. The dryline will
mix farther to the east to somewhere around the I27/US87 corridor.
Areas east of the dryline will be stuck with low stratus for much of
the day until some clearing by mid afternoon initially limiting
instabilities and maximizing capping. Very strong instabilities will
exist east of the dryline with good low level shear. Large scale
forcing will be lacking again relying on dryline convergence to
initiate convection. A cold front will be moving through the Texas
Panhandle during the afternoon. This will maximize low level
convergence north of the area in the eastern Texas Panhandle.

LONG TERM...
Any isolated convection Saturday afternoon should quickly fade as
instability wanes and inhibition increases during the mid-late
evening hours. The first half of Easter should then start out on the
mild and quiet side. However a weak cold front/surface boundary is
progged to sag into the northern or central zones before stalling
out and this along with the attendant dryline south of the front and
perhaps weak upper support within modest west-southwest flow aloft
should spur scattered storm development during the afternoon and
evening hours. Good moisture/instability along with sufficient deep
layer shear along the front and east of the dryline could support
robust updrafts and the risk of severe weather. The front/boundary
should wash out on Monday, but we will hang on to a risk of isolated
afternoon/evening convection along and east of the dryline which
will likely be located near or east of the edge of the Caprock.

Beyond Monday brief low amplitude ridging aloft along with a further
eastward push to the afternoon dryline position should keep the CWA
dry Tuesday and Wednesday. After that it becomes less clear as a
storm system is expected to approach through the Great Basin before
closing off and emerging across the High Plains late week. A
northern CONUS shortwave trough is forecast to drop a backdoor cold
front into or through the FA on Thursday. Lift ahead of the
system will renew shower and storm chances along and north of the
boundary late Thursday or Thursday night. Beyond that all will
depend on the track of the upper low. The latest GFS and ECMWF
favor a track north of the CWA which would quickly dry slot the FA
and bring an end to storm chances /aside from perhaps a little
light wrap around moisture if the low isn't too far north per the
ECMWF/. If you are hoping for more widespread and long-duration
rainfall, the Canadian is the winner this afternoon stalling the
low to our west while sinking slowly southward from Friday through
the weekend. This would result in a cool and soggy weekend,
though at this point it looks like a very low probability outcome.
Time will tell, but for now have included 20-30 PoPs from late
Thursday through Friday.

Temperatures through most or all of the extended will reside on the
warm side of average with Tuesday and Wednesday likely the warmest
of the days when highs well into the 80s /perhaps a few lower 90s/
are expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1115 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

TXZ021>044-151615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1115 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across the southwestern Texas
Panhandle and the western South Plains, generally along and west
of a Tulia to Tahoka line. The main severe threats will be hail up
to tennis ball size and winds up to 70 mph. Additionally, isolated
tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated late-day severe thunderstorms could affect areas east of
the Caprock escarpment on Saturday. A greater coverage of severe
storms is possible across a broader portion of the South Plains
area on Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front enters the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TORNADO          3 W DIMMITT             34.55N 102.37W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIDEO OF A LARGE TORNADO ONGOING ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF
            DIMMITT. ONE OF MANY TORNADOES OVER THE PAST 20 MINUTES
            WITH THIS STORM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700119

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
720 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW DIMMITT           34.53N 102.36W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   STORM CHASER

            8-10 POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF... POSSIBLY FROM AN
            EARLIER TORNADO. TIME OF DAMAGE IS ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700120

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
750 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TORNADO          4 N DIMMITT             34.61N 102.31W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TORNADO OBSERVED BY STORM SPOTTER. LOCATION
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700121

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
801 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE DIMMITT            34.57N 102.29W
04/14/2017  M60 MPH          CASTRO             TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET MEASURED A SOUTHERLY INFLOW WIND
            GUST TO 60 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700122

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
807 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TORNADO          6 W DIMMITT             34.55N 102.42W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF ROPE TORNADO NOTED IN CHASER VIDEO FEED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700123

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
823 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW DIMMITT            34.56N 102.33W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   PUBLIC

            POWER POLE SNAPPED ABOUT 10 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. THE
            TIME OF DAMAGE IS UNKNOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700124

GDS