Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

289 
WGUS54 KLUB 150055
FFWLUB
TXC069-150300-
/O.EXT.KLUB.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170415T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
755 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northern Castro County in the Panhandle of Texas...

* Until 1000 PM CDT

* At 754 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to four inches of rain have 
  already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Dimmitt, Summerfield, Easter and Nazareth. 

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 10200 3451 10214 3448 10252 3475 10252
      3475 10200

$$

23

766 
WGUS74 KLUB 150144
FFSLUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
844 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

TXC069-150300-
/O.CON.KLUB.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170415T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Castro TX-
844 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN CASTRO COUNTY...

At 836 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area. Radar indicates that 3 to 6 plus inches of rain has already 
fallen over the northern half of Castro County. Flash flooding is 
already occurring here. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be 
possible will these slow moving storms further exacerbating the 
flooding. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Dimmitt, Summerfield, Easter and Nazareth. This includes Highway 385 
between Dimmitt and Hereford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 10200 3451 10214 3448 10252 3475 10252
      3475 10200

$$

23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
636 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should persist through the evening but IFR is a
possibility toward sunrise on Saturday morning. A strong
thunderstorm located NW of KPVW should remain north of that
terminal. Winds may increase in a local zone of convergence to the
south and southeast of convective activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

UPDATE...
Minor update to raise PoPs significantly around and just
downstream of the current slow-moving severe thunderstorm over
western Castro County. Given the slow storm motion heavy/flooding
rains is also an increasing concern in addition to the severe
threat. The activity should gradually wane by mid-late evening as
it moves into an increasingly capped environment and the BL cools.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The Saturday afternoon setup will be similar to today's. We will
still be dealing with capping issues but farther to the east.
Convection will largely be conditional again. A very narrow swath of
uncapped air may exist just east of the dryline. The dryline will
mix farther to the east to somewhere around the I27/US87 corridor.
Areas east of the dryline will be stuck with low stratus for much of
the day until some clearing by mid afternoon initially limiting
instabilities and maximizing capping. Very strong instabilities will
exist east of the dryline with good low level shear. Large scale
forcing will be lacking again relying on dryline convergence to
initiate convection. A cold front will be moving through the Texas
Panhandle during the afternoon. This will maximize low level
convergence north of the area in the eastern Texas Panhandle.

LONG TERM...
Any isolated convection Saturday afternoon should quickly fade as
instability wanes and inhibition increases during the mid-late
evening hours. The first half of Easter should then start out on the
mild and quiet side. However a weak cold front/surface boundary is
progged to sag into the northern or central zones before stalling
out and this along with the attendant dryline south of the front and
perhaps weak upper support within modest west-southwest flow aloft
should spur scattered storm development during the afternoon and
evening hours. Good moisture/instability along with sufficient deep
layer shear along the front and east of the dryline could support
robust updrafts and the risk of severe weather. The front/boundary
should wash out on Monday, but we will hang on to a risk of isolated
afternoon/evening convection along and east of the dryline which
will likely be located near or east of the edge of the Caprock.

Beyond Monday brief low amplitude ridging aloft along with a further
eastward push to the afternoon dryline position should keep the CWA
dry Tuesday and Wednesday. After that it becomes less clear as a
storm system is expected to approach through the Great Basin before
closing off and emerging across the High Plains late week. A
northern CONUS shortwave trough is forecast to drop a backdoor cold
front into or through the FA on Thursday. Lift ahead of the
system will renew shower and storm chances along and north of the
boundary late Thursday or Thursday night. Beyond that all will
depend on the track of the upper low. The latest GFS and ECMWF
favor a track north of the CWA which would quickly dry slot the FA
and bring an end to storm chances /aside from perhaps a little
light wrap around moisture if the low isn't too far north per the
ECMWF/. If you are hoping for more widespread and long-duration
rainfall, the Canadian is the winner this afternoon stalling the
low to our west while sinking slowly southward from Friday through
the weekend. This would result in a cool and soggy weekend,
though at this point it looks like a very low probability outcome.
Time will tell, but for now have included 20-30 PoPs from late
Thursday through Friday.

Temperatures through most or all of the extended will reside on the
warm side of average with Tuesday and Wednesday likely the warmest
of the days when highs well into the 80s /perhaps a few lower 90s/
are expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1115 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

TXZ021>044-151615-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1115 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across the southwestern Texas
Panhandle and the western South Plains, generally along and west
of a Tulia to Tahoka line. The main severe threats will be hail up
to tennis ball size and winds up to 70 mph. Additionally, isolated
tornadoes will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated late-day severe thunderstorms could affect areas east of
the Caprock escarpment on Saturday. A greater coverage of severe
storms is possible across a broader portion of the South Plains
area on Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front enters the
region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             4 E BOVINA              34.52N 102.82W
04/14/2017  E2.75 INCH       PARMER             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL KNOCK OUT THE WINDSHIELD OF THE POLICE CAR. TIME
            OF HAIL IS ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700114

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             9 N LAZBUDDIE           34.52N 102.61W
04/14/2017  M2.80 INCH       PARMER             TX   STORM CHASER

            TIME OF HAIL ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700115

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TORNADO          6 NE LAZBUDDIE          34.45N 102.54W
04/14/2017                   PARMER             TX   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO OBSERVED BY STORM SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700116

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TORNADO          8 W DIMMITT             34.55N 102.46W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   STORM CHASER

            MULTIVORTEX TORNADO OBSERVED ON LIVE SPOTTER FEED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700117

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
643 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW DIMMITT           34.52N 102.40W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS STARTING AT 637 PM AND
            CONTINUING THROUGH THE TIME OF REPORT. POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700118

GDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TORNADO          3 W DIMMITT             34.55N 102.37W
04/14/2017                   CASTRO             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIDEO OF A LARGE TORNADO ONGOING ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF
            DIMMITT. ONE OF MANY TORNADOES OVER THE PAST 20 MINUTES
            WITH THIS STORM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1700119

GDS