Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Louisville, KY

004 
WWUS53 KLMK 052128
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
528 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

INC043-061-KYC163-052138-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-170405T2130Z/
Harrison IN-Floyd IN-Meade KY-
528 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HARRISON...SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD
AND CENTRAL MEADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for south central
Indiana...and central Kentucky.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3788 8622 3799 8640 3838 8616 3829 8584
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 205DEG 66KT 3825 8613 

$$

RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
507 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 507 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A 5H speed max coming into western Kentucky and the Wabash Valley is
causing storms to blossom in a narrow corridor of PWAT around an
inch, deep moisture convergence, and upper level divergence. The
storms are expected to present a continuing, and possibly
increasing, wind threat as they proceed into areas east of I-65
where mid- and low-level lapse rates are steeper and DCAPE values
are higher. Large hail has been the main severe weather threat so
far with these storms, and that threat will continue.

The best tornado chances over the next few hours will be east of
I-65 and south of the Blue Grass Parkway in area of best SRH/EHI.

.Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Severe Storms Likely this Afternoon/Evening...
...Windy Conditions Late Tonight and Thursday...

Broad area of low pressure, 999 mb, extends from central MO to
southern IL, with a warm front extending across southern IN this
hour. Sunshine warming up the warm sector quickly, but dewpoints
have stayed down according to area observations. Narrow area of
higher dewpoints over western TN this hour, but very narrow. Still
focused on potential for very large hail and damaging wind gusts as
cold pools come out of supercells. Looking at a better tornado
threat in a couple of areas, one over southern Indiana, along the
front and another across Lake Cumberland as LCL's start to fall.

Even outside of these storms, expect gusty winds because of the
pressure gradient associated with that low pressure. The gradient
will stick around overnight and Thursday. In fact, looking at very
windy conditions for the day Thursday, as much colder air pours in.
Likely we will issue a Wind Advisory later tonight for that Thursday
period, with gusts to around 40 mph.

In addition to the wind, expect showery conditions as moisture wraps
around the upper low travelling by to our north. We may see a brief
transition to rain/snow mix or just snow by daybreak Friday.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Freezing Temperatures May Return Early Saturday...

Friday morning will be near freezing, but with windy conditions not
expecting frost development. Saturday morning, high pressure will
move across the TN Valley, and that looks to be a better chance for
a freeze, especially in our normally colder locations.

High pressure then shifts east of the region and we should have
another warmup in store for the end of the weekend and the beginning
of the next work week. Our next good rain chance will come in Monday
night, as a cold front approaches.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Well...strong low pressure system over MO will move into the CWA by
21z bringing a strong risk of severe storms across KY.

Ahead of this system, winds will slowly veer to the SE and S and
increase to 10 to 18 mph later this afternoon and this evening.  A
potent cold front will move through tonight with winds shifting to
more westerly.

Ahead of the cold front in the warm sector expect 30% coverage of
shra/tsra from 20z through 03z. We are looking for 20-30% coverage
of supercells to develop west of I 65 between 18-20z and move
rapidly to the NE at 50 mph. These will produce very large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  All aircraft flying into all
3 airports should practice tsra avoidance procedures for all
supercell thunderstorms. Very large hail from supercells.

Storms will be widely scattered so will continue to carry VCTS for
now. But will be monitoring closely should one affect any of the
sites.  My hunch is LEX will have thunderstorms around 00z
timeframe.

The storms will move out this evening. Light showers will develop
behind the cold front and move in late tonight and continue into
Thursday.

The story on Thursday will be MVFR CIGS, and very gusty winds from
the west of 20 gusting to 35 mph staring at 16z.  Cold raw dreary
day on the flight line for sure.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Mesoscale......13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JDG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
257 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 /157 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

...TORNADO WATCH 127 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous storms are likely this afternoon and evening as
a cold front approaches the region. Some of these storms will become
quite vigorous with severe weather likely to 10 PM EDT. Damaging
winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are all
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Cold conditions will return to the area behind the strong cold
front. As a result, light snow may mix in with rain showers Friday
morning. Temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark Saturday
morning with frost or a freeze possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report hail of any size, strong winds or
wind damage, and any rotation in storms today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
453 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             1 NNE FLOYDS KNOBS      38.32N 85.86W
04/05/2017  E1.75 INCH       FLOYD              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
454 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             EDWARDSVILLE            38.28N 85.90W
04/05/2017  E1.00 INCH       FLOYD              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
457 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             2 WNW HARDINSBURG       37.79N 86.49W
04/05/2017  E0.75 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA TO DIME HAIL.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
505 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             1 SE BOWLING GREEN      36.96N 86.42W
04/05/2017  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             KY   OTHER FEDERAL

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT
            REPORTED BY CIVIL AIR PATROL.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
508 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             6 NE WOLF CREEK         38.15N 86.31W
04/05/2017  E0.88 INCH       MEADE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
510 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

INZ092-KYZ031>034-052145-
Clark-Oldham-Shelby-Henry-Trimble-
510 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CLARK...
OLDHAM...NORTHWESTERN SHELBY...TRIMBLE AND HENRY COUNTIES...

At 510 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Prospect to near
Shelbyville. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
La Grange, New Castle, Bedford, Pendleton, Crestwood, Eminence, Pewee
Valley, Owen, Goshen and Pleasureville.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3858 8521 3860 8508 3856 8506 3857 8504
      3855 8500 3851 8503 3851 8498 3849 8499
      3847 8495 3843 8496 3844 8495 3846 8492
      3844 8493 3842 8489 3822 8530 3842 8568
      3859 8547 3859 8543 3861 8544 3871 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 231DEG 52KT 3843 8555 3828 8528

RJS