Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
507 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 507 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A 5H speed max coming into western Kentucky and the Wabash Valley is
causing storms to blossom in a narrow corridor of PWAT around an
inch, deep moisture convergence, and upper level divergence. The
storms are expected to present a continuing, and possibly
increasing, wind threat as they proceed into areas east of I-65
where mid- and low-level lapse rates are steeper and DCAPE values
are higher. Large hail has been the main severe weather threat so
far with these storms, and that threat will continue.

The best tornado chances over the next few hours will be east of
I-65 and south of the Blue Grass Parkway in area of best SRH/EHI.

.Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Severe Storms Likely this Afternoon/Evening...
...Windy Conditions Late Tonight and Thursday...

Broad area of low pressure, 999 mb, extends from central MO to
southern IL, with a warm front extending across southern IN this
hour. Sunshine warming up the warm sector quickly, but dewpoints
have stayed down according to area observations. Narrow area of
higher dewpoints over western TN this hour, but very narrow. Still
focused on potential for very large hail and damaging wind gusts as
cold pools come out of supercells. Looking at a better tornado
threat in a couple of areas, one over southern Indiana, along the
front and another across Lake Cumberland as LCL's start to fall.

Even outside of these storms, expect gusty winds because of the
pressure gradient associated with that low pressure. The gradient
will stick around overnight and Thursday. In fact, looking at very
windy conditions for the day Thursday, as much colder air pours in.
Likely we will issue a Wind Advisory later tonight for that Thursday
period, with gusts to around 40 mph.

In addition to the wind, expect showery conditions as moisture wraps
around the upper low travelling by to our north. We may see a brief
transition to rain/snow mix or just snow by daybreak Friday.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Freezing Temperatures May Return Early Saturday...

Friday morning will be near freezing, but with windy conditions not
expecting frost development. Saturday morning, high pressure will
move across the TN Valley, and that looks to be a better chance for
a freeze, especially in our normally colder locations.

High pressure then shifts east of the region and we should have
another warmup in store for the end of the weekend and the beginning
of the next work week. Our next good rain chance will come in Monday
night, as a cold front approaches.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Well...strong low pressure system over MO will move into the CWA by
21z bringing a strong risk of severe storms across KY.

Ahead of this system, winds will slowly veer to the SE and S and
increase to 10 to 18 mph later this afternoon and this evening.  A
potent cold front will move through tonight with winds shifting to
more westerly.

Ahead of the cold front in the warm sector expect 30% coverage of
shra/tsra from 20z through 03z. We are looking for 20-30% coverage
of supercells to develop west of I 65 between 18-20z and move
rapidly to the NE at 50 mph. These will produce very large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  All aircraft flying into all
3 airports should practice tsra avoidance procedures for all
supercell thunderstorms. Very large hail from supercells.

Storms will be widely scattered so will continue to carry VCTS for
now. But will be monitoring closely should one affect any of the
sites.  My hunch is LEX will have thunderstorms around 00z
timeframe.

The storms will move out this evening. Light showers will develop
behind the cold front and move in late tonight and continue into
Thursday.

The story on Thursday will be MVFR CIGS, and very gusty winds from
the west of 20 gusting to 35 mph staring at 16z.  Cold raw dreary
day on the flight line for sure.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Mesoscale......13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JDG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
257 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 /157 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

...TORNADO WATCH 127 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous storms are likely this afternoon and evening as
a cold front approaches the region. Some of these storms will become
quite vigorous with severe weather likely to 10 PM EDT. Damaging
winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are all
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Cold conditions will return to the area behind the strong cold
front. As a result, light snow may mix in with rain showers Friday
morning. Temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark Saturday
morning with frost or a freeze possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report hail of any size, strong winds or
wind damage, and any rotation in storms today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
525 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HAIL             1 W PALMYRA             38.41N 86.13W
04/05/2017  M1.25 INCH       HARRISON           IN   PUBLIC

&&

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
527 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE PLUM SPRINGS      37.03N 86.36W
04/05/2017                   WARREN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES OFF A HOME NEAR WARREN EAST HIGH
            SCHOOL.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
528 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             ELIZABETHTOWN           37.70N 85.87W
04/05/2017  E1.00 INCH       HARDIN             KY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
530 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             3 WSW WINDYVILLE        37.21N 86.38W
04/05/2017  E1.00 INCH       EDMONSON           KY   PUBLIC

&&

MRC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
536 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE ELIZABETHTOWN     37.71N 85.85W
04/05/2017                   HARDIN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOBILE HOME BLOWN OVER.

&&

MRC