Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Louisville, KY

227 
WWUS53 KLMK 052301
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
601 PM CDT WED APR 5 2017

KYC053-057-207-052311-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-170405T2315Z/
Clinton KY-Russell KY-Cumberland KY-
601 PM CDT WED APR 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3662 8544 3664 8546 3700 8485 3700 8484
      3695 8490 3695 8492 3693 8495 3691 8496
      3686 8506 3683 8506 3681 8503 3677 8501
      3670 8502 3666 8500 3663 8500 3663 8499
      3662 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 232DEG 49KT 3688 8502 

$$
JDG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
614 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 610 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A broken line of severe thunderstorms has pushed east of the I-65
corridor, and individual cells continue to exhibit supercellular
characteristics as they move northeast at 55 mph. There have been
multiple reports of large hail of golf ball size and larger.

Supercell thunderstorms will continue to pose a significant risk for
large hail as they move toward Lexington, Danville, and
Campbellsville. WBZ heights are quite low, around 9,000 ft, with a
good amount of dry air in the mid levels.

Damaging winds are likely as well. DCAPE remains around 900-1000
J/kg roughly along an axis from Greensburg to Lexington. Forecast
soundings out ahead of the convection continue to show a nice
inverted V signature with the low-level dry air. There is still a
small risk for a tornado, but LCLs remain quite high at around 1250-
1500 meters.

Issued at 507 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A 5H speed max coming into western Kentucky and the Wabash Valley is
causing storms to blossom in a narrow corridor of PWAT around an
inch, deep moisture convergence, and upper level divergence. The
storms are expected to present a continuing, and possibly
increasing, wind threat as they proceed into areas east of I-65
where mid- and low-level lapse rates are steeper and DCAPE values
are higher. Large hail has been the main severe weather threat so
far with these storms, and that threat will continue.

The best tornado chances over the next few hours will be east of  I-
65 and south of the Blue Grass Parkway in area of best SRH/EHI, and
also near the warm front to the north.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Severe Storms Likely this Afternoon/Evening...
...Windy Conditions Late Tonight and Thursday...

Broad area of low pressure, 999 mb, extends from central MO to
southern IL, with a warm front extending across southern IN this
hour. Sunshine warming up the warm sector quickly, but dewpoints
have stayed down according to area observations. Narrow area of
higher dewpoints over western TN this hour, but very narrow. Still
focused on potential for very large hail and damaging wind gusts as
cold pools come out of supercells. Looking at a better tornado
threat in a couple of areas, one over southern Indiana, along the
front and another across Lake Cumberland as LCL's start to fall.

Even outside of these storms, expect gusty winds because of the
pressure gradient associated with that low pressure. The gradient
will stick around overnight and Thursday. In fact, looking at very
windy conditions for the day Thursday, as much colder air pours in.
Likely we will issue a Wind Advisory later tonight for that Thursday
period, with gusts to around 40 mph.

In addition to the wind, expect showery conditions as moisture wraps
around the upper low travelling by to our north. We may see a brief
transition to rain/snow mix or just snow by daybreak Friday.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Freezing Temperatures May Return Early Saturday...

Friday morning will be near freezing, but with windy conditions not
expecting frost development. Saturday morning, high pressure will
move across the TN Valley, and that looks to be a better chance for
a freeze, especially in our normally colder locations.

High pressure then shifts east of the region and we should have
another warmup in store for the end of the weekend and the beginning
of the next work week. Our next good rain chance will come in Monday
night, as a cold front approaches.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Well...strong low pressure system over MO will move into the CWA by
21z bringing a strong risk of severe storms across KY.

Ahead of this system, winds will slowly veer to the SE and S and
increase to 10 to 18 mph later this afternoon and this evening.  A
potent cold front will move through tonight with winds shifting to
more westerly.

Ahead of the cold front in the warm sector expect 30% coverage of
shra/tsra from 20z through 03z. We are looking for 20-30% coverage
of supercells to develop west of I 65 between 18-20z and move
rapidly to the NE at 50 mph. These will produce very large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  All aircraft flying into all
3 airports should practice tsra avoidance procedures for all
supercell thunderstorms. Very large hail from supercells.

Storms will be widely scattered so will continue to carry VCTS for
now. But will be monitoring closely should one affect any of the
sites.  My hunch is LEX will have thunderstorms around 00z
timeframe.

The storms will move out this evening. Light showers will develop
behind the cold front and move in late tonight and continue into
Thursday.

The story on Thursday will be MVFR CIGS, and very gusty winds from
the west of 20 gusting to 35 mph staring at 16z.  Cold raw dreary
day on the flight line for sure.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...13/EBW
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JDG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
621 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-
063>067-073>078-081-082-062230-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-
Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-
Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville,
Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg,
Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Horse Cave, Greensburg,
Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
621 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 /521 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

...TORNADO WATCH 127 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Numerous storms are likely this evening as a cold front approaches
the region. Some of these storms will become quite vigorous with
severe weather likely until 10 PM EDT. Damaging winds, very large
hail, and a tornadoes are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Cold conditions will return to the area behind the strong cold
front. As a result, light snow may mix in with rain showers Friday
morning. Temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark Saturday
morning with frost or a freeze possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report hail of any size, strong winds or
wind damage, and any rotation in storms today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ026-027-061-062-070>072-062230-
Ohio-Grayson-Butler-Edmonson-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Including the cities of Hartford, Leitchfield, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, and Providence
521 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Cold conditions will return to the area behind the strong cold
front. As a result, light snow may mix in with rain showers Friday
morning. Temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark Saturday
morning with frost or a freeze possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any large hail or damage from earlier
this evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
616 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW ELIZABETHTOWN     37.72N 85.89W
04/05/2017                   HARDIN             KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE BLOWN ON TO A MOBILE HOME IN THE
            WOODLAND MOBILE HOME PARK.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             BLOOMFIELD              37.91N 85.32W
04/05/2017  E0.88 INCH       NELSON             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
622 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             BOSTON                  37.78N 85.67W
04/05/2017  E1.75 INCH       NELSON             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
625 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

INZ076-077-083-084-089-090-KYZ023>027-061-062-070>073-060100-
Orange-Washington-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Hancock-
Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Butler-Edmonson-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Jasper, English, Tell City,
Corydon, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg,
Hartford, Leitchfield, Morgantown, Brownsville, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, and Scottsville
625 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 /525 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

...Gusty Winds...

Non-thunderstorm winds will come in from the west-southwest and
gust to 35 or 40 mph this evening. This may make travel
challenging for high profile vehicles, and lightweight loose
outdoor objects may get tossed around.

Winds will stay brisk and gusty through the night.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             FAIRFIELD               37.93N 85.38W
04/05/2017  E1.00 INCH       NELSON             KY   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE EMINENCE          38.38N 85.15W
04/05/2017                   HENRY              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TWO MOBILE HOMES BLOWN OVER.

&&

MRC