Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Louisville, KY

285 
WWUS53 KLMK 052227
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
627 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

KYC179-215-052237-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170405T2245Z/
Spencer KY-Nelson KY-
627 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SPENCER AND
NORTHEASTERN NELSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central
Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3804 8465 3795 8494 3790 8502 3789 8510
      3791 8511 3792 8513 3790 8513 3790 8515
      3789 8514 3789 8515 3792 8516 3803 8512
      3803 8510 3817 8514 3834 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 237DEG 39KT 3804 8505 

$$

KYC005-073-211-239-052245-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170405T2245Z/
Shelby KY-Woodford KY-Anderson KY-Franklin KY-
627 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHERN WOODFORD...ANDERSON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES...

At 627 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of
Lawrenceburg, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 to 80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Ballard, Slickway, Wayside,
Anderson City, Glensboro, Farmdale and Johnsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central
Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3804 8465 3795 8494 3790 8502 3789 8510
      3791 8511 3792 8513 3790 8513 3790 8515
      3789 8514 3789 8515 3792 8516 3803 8512
      3803 8510 3817 8514 3834 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 237DEG 39KT 3804 8505 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

RJS

717 
WWUS53 KLMK 052242
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
642 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

KYC005-073-211-239-052252-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170405T2245Z/
Shelby KY-Woodford KY-Anderson KY-Franklin KY-
642 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHERN
WOODFORD...ANDERSON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM
EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning is moving out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible behind this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central
Kentucky.

Report severe weather to local law enforcement, post your report to
the National Weather Service Louisville Facebook page, or tweet your
report using hashtag L, M, K, spotter.

LAT...LON 3804 8465 3795 8494 3790 8502 3789 8510
      3791 8511 3792 8513 3790 8513 3790 8515
      3789 8514 3789 8515 3792 8516 3803 8512
      3803 8510 3817 8514 3834 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 227DEG 47KT 3817 8488 

$$

RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
614 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 610 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A broken line of severe thunderstorms has pushed east of the I-65
corridor, and individual cells continue to exhibit supercellular
characteristics as they move northeast at 55 mph. There have been
multiple reports of large hail of golf ball size and larger.

Supercell thunderstorms will continue to pose a significant risk for
large hail as they move toward Lexington, Danville, and
Campbellsville. WBZ heights are quite low, around 9,000 ft, with a
good amount of dry air in the mid levels.

Damaging winds are likely as well. DCAPE remains around 900-1000
J/kg roughly along an axis from Greensburg to Lexington. Forecast
soundings out ahead of the convection continue to show a nice
inverted V signature with the low-level dry air. There is still a
small risk for a tornado, but LCLs remain quite high at around 1250-
1500 meters.

Issued at 507 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A 5H speed max coming into western Kentucky and the Wabash Valley is
causing storms to blossom in a narrow corridor of PWAT around an
inch, deep moisture convergence, and upper level divergence. The
storms are expected to present a continuing, and possibly
increasing, wind threat as they proceed into areas east of I-65
where mid- and low-level lapse rates are steeper and DCAPE values
are higher. Large hail has been the main severe weather threat so
far with these storms, and that threat will continue.

The best tornado chances over the next few hours will be east of  I-
65 and south of the Blue Grass Parkway in area of best SRH/EHI, and
also near the warm front to the north.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Severe Storms Likely this Afternoon/Evening...
...Windy Conditions Late Tonight and Thursday...

Broad area of low pressure, 999 mb, extends from central MO to
southern IL, with a warm front extending across southern IN this
hour. Sunshine warming up the warm sector quickly, but dewpoints
have stayed down according to area observations. Narrow area of
higher dewpoints over western TN this hour, but very narrow. Still
focused on potential for very large hail and damaging wind gusts as
cold pools come out of supercells. Looking at a better tornado
threat in a couple of areas, one over southern Indiana, along the
front and another across Lake Cumberland as LCL's start to fall.

Even outside of these storms, expect gusty winds because of the
pressure gradient associated with that low pressure. The gradient
will stick around overnight and Thursday. In fact, looking at very
windy conditions for the day Thursday, as much colder air pours in.
Likely we will issue a Wind Advisory later tonight for that Thursday
period, with gusts to around 40 mph.

In addition to the wind, expect showery conditions as moisture wraps
around the upper low travelling by to our north. We may see a brief
transition to rain/snow mix or just snow by daybreak Friday.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...Freezing Temperatures May Return Early Saturday...

Friday morning will be near freezing, but with windy conditions not
expecting frost development. Saturday morning, high pressure will
move across the TN Valley, and that looks to be a better chance for
a freeze, especially in our normally colder locations.

High pressure then shifts east of the region and we should have
another warmup in store for the end of the weekend and the beginning
of the next work week. Our next good rain chance will come in Monday
night, as a cold front approaches.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Well...strong low pressure system over MO will move into the CWA by
21z bringing a strong risk of severe storms across KY.

Ahead of this system, winds will slowly veer to the SE and S and
increase to 10 to 18 mph later this afternoon and this evening.  A
potent cold front will move through tonight with winds shifting to
more westerly.

Ahead of the cold front in the warm sector expect 30% coverage of
shra/tsra from 20z through 03z. We are looking for 20-30% coverage
of supercells to develop west of I 65 between 18-20z and move
rapidly to the NE at 50 mph. These will produce very large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  All aircraft flying into all
3 airports should practice tsra avoidance procedures for all
supercell thunderstorms. Very large hail from supercells.

Storms will be widely scattered so will continue to carry VCTS for
now. But will be monitoring closely should one affect any of the
sites.  My hunch is LEX will have thunderstorms around 00z
timeframe.

The storms will move out this evening. Light showers will develop
behind the cold front and move in late tonight and continue into
Thursday.

The story on Thursday will be MVFR CIGS, and very gusty winds from
the west of 20 gusting to 35 mph staring at 16z.  Cold raw dreary
day on the flight line for sure.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...13/EBW
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JDG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-061900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
257 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017 /157 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

...TORNADO WATCH 127 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous storms are likely this afternoon and evening as
a cold front approaches the region. Some of these storms will become
quite vigorous with severe weather likely to 10 PM EDT. Damaging
winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are all
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Cold conditions will return to the area behind the strong cold
front. As a result, light snow may mix in with rain showers Friday
morning. Temperatures will fall close to the freezing mark Saturday
morning with frost or a freeze possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report hail of any size, strong winds or
wind damage, and any rotation in storms today.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
601 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             BARDSTOWN               37.81N 85.46W
04/05/2017  E1.75 INCH       NELSON             KY   PUBLIC

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
602 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             ALVATON                 36.87N 86.35W
04/05/2017  E1.75 INCH       WARREN             KY   PUBLIC

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
607 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             2 W LOCKPORT            38.43N 85.02W
04/05/2017  E1.75 INCH       HENRY              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             BOSTON                  37.78N 85.67W
04/05/2017  E1.00 INCH       NELSON             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             FAIRFIELD               37.93N 85.38W
04/05/2017  E1.00 INCH       NELSON             KY   PUBLIC

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
612 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE IRVINGTON         37.90N 86.28W
04/05/2017                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWN ON KY 79.

&&