Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
919 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

...VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...

.UPDATE...
Currently: A line training line of severe storms was tracking
northeast across southeast Georgia this morning. Tornadoes and
straight line winds are expected. The entire area of convection was
drifting east.

A Flash Flood Watch was issued for southeast Georgia and Hamilton
County in northeast Florida due to training supercells moving
across the region. Windy conditions are expected this afternoon
due to very strong winds just off the surface, and a Wind Advisory
will continue through the afternoon hours.

A very dangerous situation is developing across northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia today. Long track strong tornadoes (EF2 or
greater) are possible this afternoon. An west to east boundary
could set somewhere across the region this afternoon due to the
convection across southeast Georgia, and this could be a focus
area for long track tornadoes. A PDS Watch will likely be issued
for our entire region later today. This is an extremely rare and
dangerous situation for our area, similar to the major outbreaks
seen across the midwest and southeast to the northwest of our
region. Soundings for this afternoon are showing a near perfect
situation for severe storms, with bulk shear of 60-70 knots,
effective SRH of 300-600 m2/s2, and MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg.
So,bowing segments with straight lines, tornadoes, and large hail
are likely.

Severe storms should wind down from north to south this evening,
with quiet conditions overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to VFR into the afternoon. Winds increasing to around 20
knots with gusts to 30-35 knots possible. Widespread severe storms
expected this afternoon into the early evening. Improving
conditions overnight, with winds remaining elevated.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory and Gale Warning conditions will continue
through late Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  52  64  44 / 100  40  10   0
SSI  74  56  65  47 /  90  70  10   0
JAX  81  55  68  46 /  90  50  10   0
SGJ  82  56  69  47 /  90  70  10   0
GNV  80  54  67  44 /  90  50  10   0
OCF  80  57  68  46 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Hamilton.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-
     Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
     Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

Kennedy/Nelson/Guillet

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
114 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231815-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
114 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM...

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LARGE HAIL UP TO LIME SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 85 MPH...AND STRONG LONG-LIVED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE BAXLEY            31.78N 82.35W
01/22/2017                   APPLING            GA   PUBLIC

            DOWNED TREES CAUSED MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND ARE
            BLOCKING ROADS. TIME OF OCCURANCE ESTIMATED WITH RADAR.
            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

WCORLESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1209 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW BAXLEY            31.78N 82.36W
01/22/2017                   APPLING            GA   PUBLIC

            MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALONG GOLDEN ISLES PARKWAY. TIME
            OF EVENT ESTIMATED WITH RADAR. RCVD VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

WCORLESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1216 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132-134-136-149>154-162>166-221845-
Coastal Camden GA-Inland Camden GA-Clinch GA-Wayne GA-Brantley GA-
Charlton GA-Inland Glynn GA-Bacon GA-Pierce GA-Coastal Glynn GA-
Atkinson GA-Echols GA-Ware GA-Coffee GA-
1216 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ECHOLS...SOUTHERN
BACON...CAMDEN...GLYNN...CLINCH...WARE...SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...
SOUTHERN WAYNE...ATKINSON...PIERCE...BRANTLEY AND CHARLTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 PM EST...

At 1216 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lake Park to near St. Simons Island.
Movement was northeast at 65 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected
along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Brunswick, Waycross, St. Simons Island, Blackshear, Folkston,
Homerville, Pearson, Woodbine, Willacoochee and Nahunta.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 PM EST for northeastern
Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3119 8125 3110 8137 3086 8141 3069 8313
      3080 8313 3087 8297 3118 8297 3119 8305
      3128 8303 3139 8312 3152 8222 3147 8214
      3153 8213 3159 8171 3136 8152 3128 8139
      3129 8139 3127 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 243DEG 73KT 3073 8316 3114 8136

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1235 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

FLZ020>022-030-035-036-GAZ162-163-221830-
Alachua FL-Gilchrist FL-Union FL-Columbia FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-
Clinch GA-Echols GA-
1235 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLUMBIA...WESTERN UNION...
NORTHWESTERN ALACHUA...SUWANNEE...HAMILTON...GILCHRIST...ECHOLS AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EST...

At 1235 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Jennings to near Bell. Movement was north
at 70 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Live Oak, Jasper, Trenton, Jennings, White Springs, Bell,
Fargo, Statenville and Ichetucknee Spring.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 PM EST for northern and
northeastern Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3063 8314 3071 8313 3079 8249 2964 8243
      2956 8274 2958 8278 2958 8295 2962 8297
      2975 8294 2976 8295 2988 8287 2989 8292
      2996 8293 3008 8307 3012 8323 3026 8325
      3039 8317 3042 8322 3059 8326 3063 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 198DEG 61KT 3065 8309 2969 8292

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1247 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S GRAHAM              31.76N 82.51W
01/22/2017                   APPLING            GA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL DOWNED TREES NEAR INTERSECTION OF ZOAR RD AND DON
            HALL RD. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED WITH RADAR. RECEIVED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

WCORLESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
141 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

FLZ024-GAZ136-150-152>154-164>166-222015-
Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Camden GA-Inland Camden GA-Wayne GA-
Brantley GA-Charlton GA-Inland Glynn GA-Coastal Glynn GA-Ware GA-
141 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NASSAU...CAMDEN...
GLYNN...SOUTHEASTERN WARE...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE...BRANTLEY AND
CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EST...

At 140 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Stephen Foster State Park
to Darien. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsland, Brunswick, St. Simons Island, Folkston, Woodbine, Nahunta,
Dock Junction, Stephen Foster State Park, Homeland and Race Pond.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for northeastern
Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3119 8125 3110 8137 3082 8142 3065 8243
      3073 8242 3082 8243 3082 8245 3099 8245
      3148 8162 3145 8163 3140 8158 3133 8147
      3133 8144 3129 8141 3128 8138 3129 8139
      3131 8134 3128 8132 3128 8125 3123 8123
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 221DEG 35KT 3090 8238 3139 8143

ENYEDI