Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
919 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

...VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...

.UPDATE...
Currently: A line training line of severe storms was tracking
northeast across southeast Georgia this morning. Tornadoes and
straight line winds are expected. The entire area of convection was
drifting east.

A Flash Flood Watch was issued for southeast Georgia and Hamilton
County in northeast Florida due to training supercells moving
across the region. Windy conditions are expected this afternoon
due to very strong winds just off the surface, and a Wind Advisory
will continue through the afternoon hours.

A very dangerous situation is developing across northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia today. Long track strong tornadoes (EF2 or
greater) are possible this afternoon. An west to east boundary
could set somewhere across the region this afternoon due to the
convection across southeast Georgia, and this could be a focus
area for long track tornadoes. A PDS Watch will likely be issued
for our entire region later today. This is an extremely rare and
dangerous situation for our area, similar to the major outbreaks
seen across the midwest and southeast to the northwest of our
region. Soundings for this afternoon are showing a near perfect
situation for severe storms, with bulk shear of 60-70 knots,
effective SRH of 300-600 m2/s2, and MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg.
So,bowing segments with straight lines, tornadoes, and large hail
are likely.

Severe storms should wind down from north to south this evening,
with quiet conditions overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to VFR into the afternoon. Winds increasing to around 20
knots with gusts to 30-35 knots possible. Widespread severe storms
expected this afternoon into the early evening. Improving
conditions overnight, with winds remaining elevated.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory and Gale Warning conditions will continue
through late Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  52  64  44 / 100  40  10   0
SSI  74  56  65  47 /  90  70  10   0
JAX  81  55  68  46 /  90  50  10   0
SGJ  82  56  69  47 /  90  70  10   0
GNV  80  54  67  44 /  90  50  10   0
OCF  80  57  68  46 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Hamilton.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-
     Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
     Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

Kennedy/Nelson/Guillet

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-230930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST.AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-
ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-
CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-410 AM EST SUN JAN 22
2017

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...

...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

...GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TOTAL STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE TWO TO FIVE INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S HOMERVILLE          30.98N 82.75W
01/22/2017                   CLINCH             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE DOWNED TREES ON SHILOH HIGHWAY. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

WCORLESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
836 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S HOMERVILLE          30.98N 82.75W
01/22/2017                   CLINCH             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN ALONG SHILOH HWY IN
            ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNED TREES.

&&

WCORLESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
848 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW HOMERVILLE        31.00N 82.77W
01/22/2017                   CLINCH             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS POWER LINES DOWN ON HWY 187. TIME OF EVENT
            ESTIMATED WITH RADAR.

&&

WCORLESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NNE BAXLEY              31.77N 82.35W
01/22/2017                   APPLING            GA   PUBLIC

            REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF POWERLINES DOWNED ON
            US HWY 1 IN BAXLEY.

&&

KGUILLET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
925 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

FLZ020>025-124-125-GAZ136-150>154-162>166-221545-
Coastal Nassau FL-Baker FL-Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Duval FL-
Inland Duval FL-Columbia FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-
Coastal Camden GA-Inland Camden GA-Clinch GA-Brantley GA-
Inland Glynn GA-Coastal Glynn GA-Pierce GA-Ware GA-Wayne GA-
Charlton GA-Echols GA-
925 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...Long lived severe storms with tornadoes expected today...

Long lived supercell storms producing wind damage and tornadoes will
continue to track east across southeast Georgia and along and north
of the Interstate 10 corridor of northeast Florida from Live Oak to
Jacksonville through the early afternoon.  These storms have a
history of weather damage. Severe weather will continue to impact
southeast Georgia through late morning...with storms beginning to
impact northeast Florida over the next several hours. Review your
safety plan with your family and monitor for future warnings.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, St. Marys, Kingsland, Brunswick, Waycross, St. Simons
Island, Fernandina Beach, Live Oak, Jasper and Blackshear.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 AM EST for southeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3063 8314 3080 8313 3085 8309 3087 8297
      3107 8297 3158 8171 3136 8152 3128 8139
      3128 8138 3129 8139 3127 8122 3119 8125
      3110 8137 3079 8142 3038 8137 3022 8174
      3021 8325 3039 8317 3042 8322 3063 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 268DEG 68KT 3128 8143 3075 8233 3044 8349

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
948 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N BAXLEY              31.78N 82.35W
01/22/2017                   APPLING            GA   PUBLIC

            MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT APPLING COUNTY EOC. TIME
            ESTIMATED WITH RADAR.

&&

WCORLESS