Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
852 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

...Severe storms possible Sunday...

.UPDATE...This afternoon's squall line weakened when it moved across
the Jax metro area late this afternoon although an outflow produced
a wind gust to 41 mph at the Jax International Airport. There was
lingering non-severe convection that will continue to traverse the I-
10 corridor and move into extreme southeast Ga the next several
hours before fading out after midnight. High-res model (HRRR)
indicating a brief respite from storms after midnight...but more
storms possible by early Sunday morning across the Suwannee Valley
and inland southeast Ga. This activity will spread east across the
remainder of the region Sunday as a developing storm system moves
north of the area and the trailing cold front approaches the area.
SPC continues to have the region in an Enhanced Risk of severe weather
with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the main concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers with a few embedded storms will
continue to traverse the I-10 corridor this eve bringing ocnl IFR
Vsby from TSR at JAX...VQQ...and CRG til around 03Z. The low level
jet will strengthen overnight, bringing in stratus. MVFR ceilings
are forecast overnight, and then may continue through much of the
day on Sunday. A squall line is forecast to push into the region on
Sunday, possibly near or after the end of the current TAF period.
Winds could gust to 40 mph near the end of the TAF period ahead of
the squall line, with severe gusts along the squall line in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...A strong low level jet will traverse the waters late
tonight into Sunday as a developing storm system moves well north
of the waters. A Small Craft Advisory continues in effect for
the offshore waters and a Gale Watch is in effect for the offshore
waters beginning 21Z on Sunday and continuing through 04Z on Tuesday.
A pre-frontal squall line will move across the waters Sunday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk is expected for Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  77  52  63 /  80  90  20  10
SSI  64  73  55  65 /  70  90  50  10
JAX  65  80  56  66 /  60 100  40   0
SGJ  66  80  57  68 /  30 100  70  10
GNV  65  79  54  66 /  50 100  50  10
OCF  65  80  56  67 /  30 100  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

PP/ACS/ARS/CA/WC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-220930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1000 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TOTAL STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TWO TO FIVE
INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ONE TO THREE INCH
RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1115 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

GAZ149-150-163-220445-
Clinch GA-Atkinson GA-Ware GA-
1115 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINCH...
NORTHWESTERN WARE AND SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM
EST...

At 1115 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Du Pont, or 8 miles southeast of Lakeland, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Homerville, Argyle, Du Pont, Cogdell and Manor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 8297 3123 8277 3128 8257 3104 8242
      3086 8294 3087 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 242DEG 29KT 3097 8295

ELSENHEIMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1211 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132-133-220600-
Jeff Davis GA-Coffee GA-
1211 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFF DAVIS AND CENTRAL COFFEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EST...

At 1211 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fitzgerald, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Hazlehurst, Broxton, Ambrose, West Green, Snipesville, Pridgen and
Denton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 8252 3167 8252 3167 8262 3163 8263
      3152 8308 3156 8306 3161 8306 3163 8301
      3179 8299 3178 8292 3179 8290 3178 8287
      3182 8284 3184 8278 3185 8279 3186 8276
      3191 8268 3192 8268 3192 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 245DEG 29KT 3173 8318

ELSENHEIMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1214 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ136-151-152-220600-
Wayne GA-Brantley GA-Pierce GA-
1214 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WAYNE...PIERCE AND
NORTHERN BRANTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EST...

At 1214 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Patterson, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Jesup, Blackshear, Patterson, Screven, Offerman, Bristol, Jamestown,
Broadhurst and Hortense.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 8192 3134 8175 3120 8228 3122 8228
      3125 8234 3129 8239 3136 8239 3138 8242
      3140 8240 3141 8242 3142 8240 3143 8240
      3143 8234 3147 8230 3149 8230 3149 8227
      3153 8222 3148 8217 3147 8214 3153 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 227DEG 26KT 3135 8217

ELSENHEIMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
147 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132-133-135-220730-
Jeff Davis GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-
147 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFF DAVIS...COFFEE AND APPLING
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM EST...

At 147 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hazlehurst, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Baxley, Hazlehurst, Broxton, Ambrose, Graham, Surrency,
Plant Hatch, Nicholls and West Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8238 3190 8211 3186 8212 3183 8206
      3180 8211 3177 8209 3177 8213 3170 8216
      3171 8252 3167 8252 3167 8262 3156 8263
      3147 8260 3143 8314 3144 8314 3166 8300
      3179 8299 3178 8287 3192 8268 3197 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 232DEG 36KT 3180 8263

ELSENHEIMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
231 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132>135-220815-
Jeff Davis GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-
231 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BACON...JEFF DAVIS...COFFEE AND
APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EST...

At 231 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hazlehurst to near West Green to 7 miles
south of Ambrose. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Baxley, Hazlehurst, Alma, Broxton, Ambrose, Graham,
Surrency, Plant Hatch and Nicholls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8211 3186 8212 3183 8206 3180 8211
      3177 8209 3177 8213 3147 8214 3153 8223
      3142 8240 3147 8250 3147 8263 3137 8263
      3136 8276 3136 8282 3140 8285 3143 8310
      3166 8300 3179 8299 3178 8287 3196 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 246DEG 41KT 3192 8260 3161 8265 3148 8304

ELSENHEIMER