Tornado Warning 6, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
301 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

...Numerous Severe Storms expected Today...

...Very Windy with near record warmth Today...

.NEAR TERM....Today and tonight...Today will bring windy and warm
conditions with near record temperatures...and severe storms.
First round of storms will move across interior se Ga early this
morning with the main threat being the possibility of isolated
large hail and locally heavy rainfall. Upper low now near Ok/Tx
border will move east into Ms this afternoon with models showing
a prefrontal squall line developing to the west and sweeping east
across the area this afternoon. Damaging winds will be likely with
the line and SPC Convective Day 1 outlook shows a Moderate risk
across se Ga and ne Fl. Large hail and tornadoes will also be
possible in any cells that form out ahead of the line. High
temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s. Outside of storms...
southwest winds will be 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. A
wind advisory will be in for today. Thunderstorms will push
offshore early this evening with cooler air moving in with the
frontal passage. Temperatures will fall into the 50s tonight with
breezy conditions making it feel cooler.

.SHORT TERM /Monday-Tuesday Night/...

Monday...Large/Intense Stacked Low pressure over the Carolinas
will drift slowly and trof axis extending south of this feature
will cross the region with just a slight chance of a shower but
most areas will remain dry. Wraparound clouds will keep SE GA
cloudy with NE FL having partial sunshine at times. West winds
will be windy at 15-25G35 mph and another Wind Advisory may be
required. Max Temps will be cooler but near climo levels in the
60s.

Monday Night...Stacked Low will drift further NE off the Mid Atlc
Coast and will allow for skies to clear as winds slowly decrease
and become W/NW and subside to around 10 mph overnight. Lows
generally in the 40s area-wide.

Tue & Tue Night...High Pressure Ridge builds over the region from
the west with mainly sunny skies and near climo/cooler temps
continuing with Highs in the 60s and Lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday-Saturday/...

Wednesday...High Pressure builds offshore and flow becomes SWly
and Highs will warm well into the 70s.

Thursday...Weakening cold frontal boundary to push through with
scattered showers through the day, while max temps still slightly
above normal around 70 degrees.

Fri/Sat...High pressure builds west of the region and much cooler
NWly steering flow will hold max temps generally in the 50s and
min temps in the 30s/40s but zonal flow aloft may produce abundant
higher clouds aloft which may hinder any significant freeze
events and enough moisture pushes in with this flow aloft to
possibly trigger a few isolated showers across NE FL by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect LLWS with some MVFR cigs early this morning
and isoalated showers at TAF sites. Expect VFR conditions 14-18z
outside of shower activity. Thunderstorms will increase this
afternoon with cigs/vsbys lowering to IFR conditions in heavy
downpours and strong wind gusts. SW winds will increase by midday
to around 25g35kt...with higher gusts in thunderstorms this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Sw winds will increase today with advisory conditions
near shore and frequent Gale force gusts offshore. Squall line
will move across the waters early this evening with severe wind
gusts andheavy downpours likely. Activity will end from the west
beforemidnight with strong winds and rough seas continuing into
Tuesday.High pressure will move into the area and bring
decreasingwinds/seas for Tuesday night and Wednesday. A cold front
will moveacross the area on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today...becoming low on Monday as winds
become offshore.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY (JAN 22ND)
JAX 82/1999...GNV 84/1937...AMG 81/1999...SSI 77/1954

ALL TIME RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY
JAX 85/2013...GNV 89/1943...AMG 83/2013...SSI 83/1972

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  52  64  44 / 100  40  10   0
SSI  78  56  65  47 /  90  70  10   0
JAX  84  55  68  46 /  80  50  10   0
SGJ  81  56  69  47 /  70  70  10   0
GNV  83  54  67  44 /  70  50  10   0
OCF  83  57  68  46 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-
     Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
     Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Tuesday
     for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

Zibura/Hess/Elsenheimer

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-230930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST.AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-
ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-
CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-410 AM EST SUN JAN 22
2017

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...

...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

...GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TOTAL STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE TWO TO FIVE INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1211 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132-133-220600-
Jeff Davis GA-Coffee GA-
1211 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFF DAVIS AND CENTRAL COFFEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EST...

At 1211 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fitzgerald, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Hazlehurst, Broxton, Ambrose, West Green, Snipesville, Pridgen and
Denton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 8252 3167 8252 3167 8262 3163 8263
      3152 8308 3156 8306 3161 8306 3163 8301
      3179 8299 3178 8292 3179 8290 3178 8287
      3182 8284 3184 8278 3185 8279 3186 8276
      3191 8268 3192 8268 3192 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 245DEG 29KT 3173 8318

ELSENHEIMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1214 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ136-151-152-220600-
Wayne GA-Brantley GA-Pierce GA-
1214 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WAYNE...PIERCE AND
NORTHERN BRANTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EST...

At 1214 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Patterson, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Jesup, Blackshear, Patterson, Screven, Offerman, Bristol, Jamestown,
Broadhurst and Hortense.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 8192 3134 8175 3120 8228 3122 8228
      3125 8234 3129 8239 3136 8239 3138 8242
      3140 8240 3141 8242 3142 8240 3143 8240
      3143 8234 3147 8230 3149 8230 3149 8227
      3153 8222 3148 8217 3147 8214 3153 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 227DEG 26KT 3135 8217

ELSENHEIMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
147 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132-133-135-220730-
Jeff Davis GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-
147 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFF DAVIS...COFFEE AND APPLING
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM EST...

At 147 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hazlehurst, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Baxley, Hazlehurst, Broxton, Ambrose, Graham, Surrency,
Plant Hatch, Nicholls and West Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8238 3190 8211 3186 8212 3183 8206
      3180 8211 3177 8209 3177 8213 3170 8216
      3171 8252 3167 8252 3167 8262 3156 8263
      3147 8260 3143 8314 3144 8314 3166 8300
      3179 8299 3178 8287 3192 8268 3197 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 232DEG 36KT 3180 8263

ELSENHEIMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
231 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132>135-220815-
Jeff Davis GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-
231 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BACON...JEFF DAVIS...COFFEE AND
APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EST...

At 231 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hazlehurst to near West Green to 7 miles
south of Ambrose. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Baxley, Hazlehurst, Alma, Broxton, Ambrose, Graham,
Surrency, Plant Hatch and Nicholls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8211 3186 8212 3183 8206 3180 8211
      3177 8209 3177 8213 3147 8214 3153 8223
      3142 8240 3147 8250 3147 8263 3137 8263
      3136 8276 3136 8282 3140 8285 3143 8310
      3166 8300 3179 8299 3178 8287 3196 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 246DEG 41KT 3192 8260 3161 8265 3148 8304

ELSENHEIMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
326 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132-133-220915-
Jeff Davis GA-Coffee GA-
326 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFF DAVIS AND COFFEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 AM EST...

At 326 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fitzgerald, moving east at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Hazlehurst, Broxton, Ambrose, Graham, Nicholls, West Green,
Snipesville, Pridgen and Denton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 AM EST for southeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3197 8247 3175 8253 3175 8255 3174 8253
      3167 8255 3167 8263 3156 8263 3156 8260
      3147 8261 3148 8311 3156 8306 3161 8306
      3166 8300 3179 8299 3178 8287 3192 8268
      3193 8262 3196 8255 3195 8249 3197 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 247DEG 50KT 3170 8322

HESS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
504 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SE DOUGLAS            31.44N 82.75W
01/22/2017                   COFFEE             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWERLINES DOWNED OFF OF HICKORY LANE IN NICHOLLS
            GEORGIA.

&&

KGUILLET