Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
919 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

...VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...

.UPDATE...
Currently: A line training line of severe storms was tracking
northeast across southeast Georgia this morning. Tornadoes and
straight line winds are expected. The entire area of convection was
drifting east.

A Flash Flood Watch was issued for southeast Georgia and Hamilton
County in northeast Florida due to training supercells moving
across the region. Windy conditions are expected this afternoon
due to very strong winds just off the surface, and a Wind Advisory
will continue through the afternoon hours.

A very dangerous situation is developing across northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia today. Long track strong tornadoes (EF2 or
greater) are possible this afternoon. An west to east boundary
could set somewhere across the region this afternoon due to the
convection across southeast Georgia, and this could be a focus
area for long track tornadoes. A PDS Watch will likely be issued
for our entire region later today. This is an extremely rare and
dangerous situation for our area, similar to the major outbreaks
seen across the midwest and southeast to the northwest of our
region. Soundings for this afternoon are showing a near perfect
situation for severe storms, with bulk shear of 60-70 knots,
effective SRH of 300-600 m2/s2, and MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg.
So,bowing segments with straight lines, tornadoes, and large hail
are likely.

Severe storms should wind down from north to south this evening,
with quiet conditions overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to VFR into the afternoon. Winds increasing to around 20
knots with gusts to 30-35 knots possible. Widespread severe storms
expected this afternoon into the early evening. Improving
conditions overnight, with winds remaining elevated.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory and Gale Warning conditions will continue
through late Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  52  64  44 / 100  40  10   0
SSI  74  56  65  47 /  90  70  10   0
JAX  81  55  68  46 /  90  50  10   0
SGJ  82  56  69  47 /  90  70  10   0
GNV  80  54  67  44 /  90  50  10   0
OCF  80  57  68  46 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Hamilton.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-
     Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland
     Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for Appling-
     Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-
     Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

Kennedy/Nelson/Guillet

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1042 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231545-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1042 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY...

...GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...

...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. STRONG AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 80 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1048 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

FLZ024-124-GAZ152>154-164>166-221630-
Coastal Nassau FL-Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Camden GA-
Inland Camden GA-Brantley GA-Charlton GA-Inland Glynn GA-
Coastal Glynn GA-
1048 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NASSAU...CAMDEN...
GLYNN...BRANTLEY AND EASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM EST...

At 1047 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Homeland to 7 miles
southeast of Jekyll Island. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Kingsland, Brunswick, St. Simons Island, Hilliard,
Folkston, Woodbine, Nahunta, Dock Junction and Kings Bay Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 PM EST for northeastern
Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3119 8125 3110 8137 3079 8142 3073 8142
      3049 8220 3050 8222 3078 8215 3079 8217
      3128 8210 3133 8143 3132 8144 3128 8139
      3129 8139 3128 8138 3131 8134 3128 8132
      3127 8122
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 230DEG 35KT 3079 8214 3102 8129

NELSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1055 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

FLZ020>022-GAZ162-163-221645-
Columbia FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-Clinch GA-Echols GA-
1055 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
SUWANNEE...HAMILTON...SOUTHERN ECHOLS AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH
COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM EST...

At 1055 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lake Park to near Dowling Park. Movement was
northeast at 65 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Jasper, Jennings, White Springs, Fargo, Suwannee Springs,
Suwannee River State Park, Statenville, Crossroads and Belmont.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 PM EST for northern and
northeastern Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3063 8314 3069 8313 3076 8245 3029 8246
      3025 8325 3031 8321 3035 8321 3035 8319
      3038 8319 3039 8317 3041 8318 3042 8322
      3046 8322 3047 8324 3052 8324 3055 8326
      3059 8326 3063 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1555Z 237DEG 57KT 3066 8320 3026 8315

ENYEDI

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1114 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FLAGLER BEACH           29.47N 81.13W
01/22/2017  M40 MPH          FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AKENNEDY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1129 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

GAZ132-134-135-149>152-162>164-221715-
Clinch GA-Brantley GA-Charlton GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-Pierce GA-
Atkinson GA-Echols GA-Ware GA-Coffee GA-
1129 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ECHOLS...SOUTHEASTERN
BACON...CLINCH...WARE...SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...ATKINSON...PIERCE...
SOUTHEASTERN APPLING...SOUTHWESTERN BRANTLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM EST...

At 1129 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Willacoochee to 8 miles north
of Needmore. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Waycross, Blackshear, Homerville, Pearson, Willacoochee, Patterson,
Argyle, Statenville, Stephen Foster State Park and Offerman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 PM EST for southeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3079 8313 3081 8310 3083 8310 3085 8308
      3085 8301 3087 8297 3118 8297 3119 8305
      3128 8303 3133 8306 3158 8213 3156 8215
      3156 8213 3147 8213 3148 8211 3078 8217
      3069 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 236DEG 44KT 3123 8309 3079 8272

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1135 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

FLZ024-124-GAZ153-154-165-166-221700-
Coastal Nassau FL-Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Camden GA-
Inland Camden GA-Inland Glynn GA-Coastal Glynn GA-
1135 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NASSAU...EASTERN
CAMDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN GLYNN COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EST...

At 1135 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Brunswick to 6 miles northwest
of Yulee. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Kingsland, Brunswick, St. Simons Island, Fernandina Beach,
Kings Bay Base, Dock Junction, Yulee, Jekyll Island and Sea Island.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 PM EST for northeastern
Florida...and southeastern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3119 8125 3110 8137 3079 8142 3058 8140
      3061 8173 3124 8159 3123 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 267DEG 39KT 3112 8158 3067 8168

ENYEDI