Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
627 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Aside from some patchy areas of IFR category late night fog, am
not expecting much other than VFR conditions tonight. There could
be the usual MVFR category shallow cumulus development after
daybreak, followed by VFR category ceilings during the afternoon
outside of any SHRA/TSRA activity. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through tomorrow:

Atmospheric forcing and low level wind shear vectors today have
worked in concert to keep the bulk of troubling thunderstorm
activity to the north and east of our forecast area, but a
remnant outflow boundary starting off all the convection this
morning is still progressing south to the Highway 82 corridor at
present and could still trigger at least isolated severe
thunderstorms for all but far southwestern zones through the
evening hours. We have reduced our risk of severe weather some
this afternoon in conjunction with the Storm Prediction Center and
focused the relative higher risks of damaging wind gusts and hail
over portions of east-central Mississippi. However, still too
early to put most of the rest of the region entirely in the clear
for this evening as the consensus of near-term high resolution
models continues to generate a few isolated potent storms across
these areas (near the aforementioned southward-advancing outflow
boundary).

By late tonight we anticipate most of the showers and storms
should be out of the area although an isolated storm or two
overnight is not impossible (especially in far northwestern zones
and also in far southeastern zones). By that point the severe
weather risk should be rather minimal. Some patchy fog is possible
late tonight in portions of northeastern MS but at this point the
signals for any widespread dense fog formation are not good.

Tomorrow we will still be dealing with the same general synoptic
situation on the east (dirty) side of a sprawling high pressure
ridge aloft centered over northern Old Mexico. Rampant powerful
storms late this afternoon through tonight in the central and
southern Plains will likely be sending some pockets of energy
aloft down in our general direction. However, guidance consensus
is improving that any convective clusters spawning tonight way
upstream of the Lower MS Valley will not get as close to the
region as was the case last night. That should leave less chance
of considerable outflow boundaries pushing southeast or south into
the region during the day and being a good trigger for potential
severe activity. For this reason we have removed the marginal
severe risk for now but we will have to continue closely
monitoring the situation for tomorrow because the atmosphere will
once again turn quite unstable. Temperatures should heat up into a
max range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with high humidity
pushing heat index values up near 100 in some cases. /BB/

Friday night through Wednesday night:

The convection will dissipate across the area by Friday evening
with overnight low temperatures in the low/mid 70s. On Saturday
the global models strengthen the mid level ridge a bit, but expect
there to continue to be a chance for storms especially along and
east of I-55. Mid level lapse rates will continue to be steep
ranging from -7.2 to -8 c/km. This combined with PWATS around 1.7
inches, a couple of strong to severe storms will once again be
possible.

On Sunday the mid-level ridge will continue to strengthen and the
global models struggle to convect. With plenty of moisture and
decent lapse rates, expect there to be at least some isolated to
scattered convection on the periphery of the ridge in the east
Sunday afternoon. Once again a strong storm or two looks possible.

On Monday an upper trough will drag a cold front south across the
area. The models are not overly robust with the convection with this
system, as the models are struggling with the potential for a
tropical system in the golf. The models want to turn the flow around
to the North in advance of this potential low and cut off the flow
of moisture to the area. High pressure and much drier air will build
in for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to around
90 each day./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  90  73  92 /  33  37  16  15
Meridian      72  89  72  90 /  46  46  28  34
Vicksburg     73  91  73  92 /  23  31   7   9
Hattiesburg   71  89  72  90 /  57  48  29  32
Natchez       72  89  72  91 /  20  30   7  11
Greenville    73  92  74  92 /  33  26   8   9
Greenwood     73  91  74  92 /  31  30  16  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
334 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-025-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040>043-
047>049-053>056-059-062>066-072>074-162045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
334 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...through this evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms with the potential to produce to
damaging wind gusts and hail are possible through this evening.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ026>033-036>039-044>046-050>052-057-058-162045-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-
334 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...through this evening

Severe thunderstorms with the potential to produce damaging wind
gusts and hail are possible through this evening.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ023-024-026-MSZ060-061-162045-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-Franklin MS-
334 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
525 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE NEW HOPE          33.48N 88.30W
06/15/2017                   LOWNDES            MS   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON ERICSON ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
527 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW COLUMBUS          33.50N 88.42W
06/15/2017                   LOWNDES            MS   PUBLIC

            TWO TREES WERE DOWN, ONE ON LUXAPALILA PARK
            ROAD AND ONE ON SECOND AVE N.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
645 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

MSZ038-045-160015-
Neshoba MS-Winston MS-
645 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON AND
NORTHWESTERN NESHOBA COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 645 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Zama, or 11 miles northeast of Edinburg, moving south
at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stallo around 700 PM CDT.
  Burnside around 715 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8902 3278 8932 3301 8932 3303 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 352DEG 11KT 3294 8924

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
706 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE MERIDIAN           32.35N 88.69W
06/15/2017                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED WINDS OF 45 MPH BROUGHT A TREE
            DOWN ON A HOUSE.

&&

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