Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday:

Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage over the northern
half of the forecast area over the past few hours as lift from the
combined MCV/disturbance aloft filters southeast into the Lower MS
Valley. The atmosphere across our region is very unstable with
surface-based CAPE values ranging from 3500 to 5000 j/kg currently
and some dry air aloft is helping enhance the threat for storms
producing gusty (and possibly damaging) winds from microbursts.
There is also a decent amount of deep layer wind shear in place (by
summer standards) and this aspect of the environment will likely
lead to one or two storm clusters aggregating within the next few
hours along and north of I-20, and then advancing more or less
southeastward into southern zones late this afternoon into the
evening. The going severe thunderstorm watch will be kept in place
through 9 pm in all areas at this juncture to cover the damaging
wind threat from storms. There will also be a more secondary risk
of hail. It is likely at least some portions of watch in northern
and western zones will be able to be dropped from the watch before
the official 9 pm expiration time.

There have recently been some signals showing up for late tonight
in high resolution model output suggesting convection could again
pop up along the lingering convergent boundary (which helped
trigger today's activity). This boundary should become oriented
more north to south (near I-55) late tonight and into tomorrow
and the question mark of whether or not much late night into early
Saturday convection will occur provides more than wanted
uncertainty for first half of the weekend. Initial thinking was
that the current upper pattern (susceptible to somewhat chaotic
thunderstorm clusters) would be breaking down after today but
subtle hints of energy aloft trying to cut-off just to our south
could possibly extend the unsettled window through Saturday. For
now we are going with 30 PoPs tomorrow along and east of the I-55
corridor and will watch closely for trends in observations and
near-term high resolution forecast models. As for impacts, it is
certainly not out of the question a few strong storms could be in
the cards for tomorrow (especially in the mentioned areas) but
there is far too much uncertainty, and a general expected
lessening of instability, to considering advertising a severe risk
in the HWO/graphics at this time. Otherwise, expect highs
generally ranging from 90 to 93 with plenty of humidity to
occasional peak heat index values up to the century mark in spots.
/BB/

Saturday night through Thursday night:

On Sunday the mid-level ridge will continue to strengthen over
the region. With plenty of moisture and decent lapse rates, expect
there to be at least some isolated to scattered convection on the
periphery of the ridge in the east Sunday afternoon. Once again a
strong storm or two looks possible.

On Monday into Tuesday, an upper trough will drag a cold front south
across the area. The models are not overly robust with the
convection with this system, as the models are struggling with the
potential for a tropical system in the golf. The models want to turn
the flow around to the North in advance of this potential low and
cut off the flow of moisture to the area. High pressure and much
drier air will build in for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
upper 80s Tuesday and in the low 90s by Wednesday. By Thursday the
Global models diverge with the latest run of the ECMWF trying to
bring some remnant tropical moisture northward over the area, while
the GFS keeps the moisture to the south. Will lean towards the Drier
GFS solution and keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday
night./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

Expected scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to affect the
region through the afternoon and into the early evening at all
sites (although a majority of the activity will likely be through
before the afternoon is out along the GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR corridor).
Any storms will have the potential to produce IFR conditions,
hail, gusty winds, IFR flight cats, and severe turbulence in the
vicinity. Most of the storms should be through by late evening
into the overnight with potential of patchy fog and low clouds
by daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow should hold less convective
potential and mostly VFR conditions after morning low clouds and
fog dissipate. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  91  74  91 /  30  26  14  13
Meridian      70  90  74  91 /  41  28  17  24
Vicksburg     74  92  74  91 /  24  23  12   9
Hattiesburg   71  90  72  91 /  59  26  16  27
Natchez       73  90  73  90 /  28  21  11  16
Greenville    74  91  75  91 /  16  20  10  10
Greenwood     72  91  75  90 /  17  23  12  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-172015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of the
afternoon north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk
with any severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to
the size of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>066-072>074-172015-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into this evening.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through evening along and
north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk with any
severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to the size
of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
514 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSZ025-027-035-036-162315-
Carroll MS-Humphreys MS-Leflore MS-Holmes MS-
514 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A LINE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
HOLMES...SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN LEFLORE AND NORTHEASTERN
HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 514 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Sunflower to near Black Hawk.
Movement was west at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Tchula around 615 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Morgan City and
Cruger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central, north central and northwestern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3326 8987 3315 9023 3333 9054 3333 9045
      3340 9046 3369 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 078DEG 10KT 3357 9051 3330 9002

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
516 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSW CARROLLTON        33.42N 89.97W
06/16/2017                   CARROLL            MS   PUBLIC

            TREE AND POWER LINE DOWN.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
533 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW ARCOLA            33.32N 90.90W
06/16/2017                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG OLD HIGHWAY 61.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
549 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KILMICHAEL              33.44N 89.57W
06/16/2017                   MONTGOMERY         MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN NEAR CITY HALL IN DOWNTOWN
            KILMICHAEL. NUMEROUS TREES WERE BLOCKING
            ROADS AROUND THE COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
557 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SSW FOREST            32.24N 89.51W
06/16/2017                   SCOTT              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 35
            NEAR WICKERMILL ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SSW FOREST            32.24N 89.51W
06/16/2017                   SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES WERE DOWN AROUND THE HOMEWOOD
            COMMUNITY.

&&