Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Jackson, MS

448 
WWUS54 KJAN 170029
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
729 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

ARC017-MSC151-170038-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0312.000000T0000Z-170617T0100Z/
Chicot AR-Washington MS-
729 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CHICOT AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central, northwestern and west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3310 9051 3297 9055 3296 9084 3298 9091
      3310 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 353DEG 40KT 3304 9112 3294 9044 

$$

MSC053-125-170100-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0312.000000T0000Z-170617T0100Z/
Humphreys MS-Sharkey MS-
729 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS AND NORTHERN SHARKEY COUNTIES...

At 728 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Glen Allan to near Yazoo City, moving south at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

these severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Humphreys and northern Sharkey Counties, including the
following locations: Louise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 9051 3297 9055 3296 9084 3298 9091
      3310 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 353DEG 40KT 3304 9112 3294 9044 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BYB

785 
WWUS54 KJAN 170054
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
754 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSC053-125-170104-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0312.000000T0000Z-170617T0100Z/
Humphreys MS-Sharkey MS-
754 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS AND
NORTHERN SHARKEY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3310 9051 3297 9055 3296 9084 3298 9091
      3310 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 270DEG 21KT 3290 9112 3280 9044 

$$

BYB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
637 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
The threat for SHRA/TSRA will linger well into the night as extra
lift associated with a disturbance helps to maintain convection
beyond sunset and this will keep the threat for IFR category
ceilings/vsby relatively high at most sites. Outside of the
SHRA/TSRA, expect mainly VFR conditions with some potential for
early morning fog. Additional storms could redevelop for locations
mainly east of the GWO/JAN corridor Saturday afternoon. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday:

Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage over the northern
half of the forecast area over the past few hours as lift from the
combined MCV/disturbance aloft filters southeast into the Lower MS
Valley. The atmosphere across our region is very unstable with
surface-based CAPE values ranging from 3500 to 5000 j/kg currently
and some dry air aloft is helping enhance the threat for storms
producing gusty (and possibly damaging) winds from microbursts.
There is also a decent amount of deep layer wind shear in place (by
summer standards) and this aspect of the environment will likely
lead to one or two storm clusters aggregating within the next few
hours along and north of I-20, and then advancing more or less
southeastward into southern zones late this afternoon into the
evening. The going severe thunderstorm watch will be kept in place
through 9 pm in all areas at this juncture to cover the damaging
wind threat from storms. There will also be a more secondary risk
of hail. It is likely at least some portions of watch in northern
and western zones will be able to be dropped from the watch before
the official 9 pm expiration time.

There have recently been some signals showing up for late tonight
in high resolution model output suggesting convection could again
pop up along the lingering convergent boundary (which helped
trigger today's activity). This boundary should become oriented
more north to south (near I-55) late tonight and into tomorrow
and the question mark of whether or not much late night into early
Saturday convection will occur provides more than wanted
uncertainty for first half of the weekend. Initial thinking was
that the current upper pattern (susceptible to somewhat chaotic
thunderstorm clusters) would be breaking down after today but
subtle hints of energy aloft trying to cut-off just to our south
could possibly extend the unsettled window through Saturday. For
now we are going with 30 PoPs tomorrow along and east of the I-55
corridor and will watch closely for trends in observations and
near-term high resolution forecast models. As for impacts, it is
certainly not out of the question a few strong storms could be in
the cards for tomorrow (especially in the mentioned areas) but
there is far too much uncertainty, and a general expected
lessening of instability, to considering advertising a severe risk
in the HWO/graphics at this time. Otherwise, expect highs
generally ranging from 90 to 93 with plenty of humidity to
occasional peak heat index values up to the century mark in spots.
/BB/

Saturday night through Thursday night:

On Sunday the mid-level ridge will continue to strengthen over
the region. With plenty of moisture and decent lapse rates, expect
there to be at least some isolated to scattered convection on the
periphery of the ridge in the east Sunday afternoon. Once again a
strong storm or two looks possible.

On Monday into Tuesday, an upper trough will drag a cold front south
across the area. The models are not overly robust with the
convection with this system, as the models are struggling with the
potential for a tropical system in the golf. The models want to turn
the flow around to the North in advance of this potential low and
cut off the flow of moisture to the area. High pressure and much
drier air will build in for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
upper 80s Tuesday and in the low 90s by Wednesday. By Thursday the
Global models diverge with the latest run of the ECMWF trying to
bring some remnant tropical moisture northward over the area, while
the GFS keeps the moisture to the south. Will lean towards the Drier
GFS solution and keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday
night./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  91  74  91 /  71  26  14  13
Meridian      70  90  74  91 /  80  28  17  24
Vicksburg     74  92  74  91 /  52  23  12   9
Hattiesburg   71  90  72  91 /  48  26  16  27
Natchez       73  90  73  90 /  30  21  11  16
Greenville    74  91  75  91 /  80  20  10  10
Greenwood     71  91  75  90 /  80  23  12  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-172015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of the
afternoon north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk
with any severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to
the size of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>066-072>074-172015-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into this evening.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through evening along and
north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk with any
severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to the size
of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE ACKERMAN           33.34N 89.14W
06/16/2017                   CHOCTAW            MS   PUBLIC

            A COUPLE BLOCKING HIGHWAY 12 NEAR ACKERMAN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
626 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW CLEVELAND         33.74N 90.75W
06/16/2017  E2.00 INCH       BOLIVAR            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER WAS COVERING THE ROAD NEAR BISHOP AND
            TERRACE AFTER TORRENTIAL RAINS FOR NEARLY 30
            MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
629 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE METCALFE          33.49N 90.98W
06/16/2017  M47 MPH          WASHINGTON         MS   ASOS

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
631 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE STARKVILLE        33.46N 88.80W
06/16/2017  E3.00 INCH       OKTIBBEHA          MS   PUBLIC

            NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN WAS CAUSING WATER TO
            COLLECT AROUND TOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
642 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW LOUISVILLE         33.15N 89.08W
06/16/2017                   WINSTON            MS   PUBLIC

            TREE FELL ON A HOUSE ON NORTHWOOD DR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
643 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOUISVILLE              33.13N 89.05W
06/16/2017                   WINSTON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWN AROUND LOUISVILEE.

&&