Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Jackson, MS

242 
WWUS54 KJAN 162348
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
648 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSC023-075-170045-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-170617T0045Z/
Clarke MS-Lauderdale MS-
648 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR CLARKE AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...

At 648 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Zero to near Quitman, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

These severe storms will be near...
  Alamucha and Toomsuba around 700 PM CDT. 
  Kewanee around 705 PM CDT. 
  Snell around 710 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Pachuta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3202 8846 3194 8891 3219 8889 3249 8881
      3251 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 259DEG 34KT 3236 8862 3210 8873 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CME

261 
WWUS54 KJAN 170000
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSC023-075-170045-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-170617T0045Z/
Clarke MS-Lauderdale MS-
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...

At 700 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Toomsuba to near Sykes, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

These severe storms will be near...
  Toomsuba around 705 PM CDT. 
  Alamucha and Kewanee around 710 PM CDT. 
  Snell around 715 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8879 3221 8875 3247 8868 3251 8840
      3202 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 270DEG 26KT 3238 8853 3212 8864 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CME

398 
WWUS54 KJAN 170019
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
719 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSC023-075-170029-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-170617T0045Z/
Clarke MS-Lauderdale MS-
719 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3196 8879 3221 8875 3247 8868 3251 8840
      3202 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 258DEG 26KT 3241 8839 3215 8850 

$$

CME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday:

Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage over the northern
half of the forecast area over the past few hours as lift from the
combined MCV/disturbance aloft filters southeast into the Lower MS
Valley. The atmosphere across our region is very unstable with
surface-based CAPE values ranging from 3500 to 5000 j/kg currently
and some dry air aloft is helping enhance the threat for storms
producing gusty (and possibly damaging) winds from microbursts.
There is also a decent amount of deep layer wind shear in place (by
summer standards) and this aspect of the environment will likely
lead to one or two storm clusters aggregating within the next few
hours along and north of I-20, and then advancing more or less
southeastward into southern zones late this afternoon into the
evening. The going severe thunderstorm watch will be kept in place
through 9 pm in all areas at this juncture to cover the damaging
wind threat from storms. There will also be a more secondary risk
of hail. It is likely at least some portions of watch in northern
and western zones will be able to be dropped from the watch before
the official 9 pm expiration time.

There have recently been some signals showing up for late tonight
in high resolution model output suggesting convection could again
pop up along the lingering convergent boundary (which helped
trigger today's activity). This boundary should become oriented
more north to south (near I-55) late tonight and into tomorrow
and the question mark of whether or not much late night into early
Saturday convection will occur provides more than wanted
uncertainty for first half of the weekend. Initial thinking was
that the current upper pattern (susceptible to somewhat chaotic
thunderstorm clusters) would be breaking down after today but
subtle hints of energy aloft trying to cut-off just to our south
could possibly extend the unsettled window through Saturday. For
now we are going with 30 PoPs tomorrow along and east of the I-55
corridor and will watch closely for trends in observations and
near-term high resolution forecast models. As for impacts, it is
certainly not out of the question a few strong storms could be in
the cards for tomorrow (especially in the mentioned areas) but
there is far too much uncertainty, and a general expected
lessening of instability, to considering advertising a severe risk
in the HWO/graphics at this time. Otherwise, expect highs
generally ranging from 90 to 93 with plenty of humidity to
occasional peak heat index values up to the century mark in spots.
/BB/

Saturday night through Thursday night:

On Sunday the mid-level ridge will continue to strengthen over
the region. With plenty of moisture and decent lapse rates, expect
there to be at least some isolated to scattered convection on the
periphery of the ridge in the east Sunday afternoon. Once again a
strong storm or two looks possible.

On Monday into Tuesday, an upper trough will drag a cold front south
across the area. The models are not overly robust with the
convection with this system, as the models are struggling with the
potential for a tropical system in the golf. The models want to turn
the flow around to the North in advance of this potential low and
cut off the flow of moisture to the area. High pressure and much
drier air will build in for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
upper 80s Tuesday and in the low 90s by Wednesday. By Thursday the
Global models diverge with the latest run of the ECMWF trying to
bring some remnant tropical moisture northward over the area, while
the GFS keeps the moisture to the south. Will lean towards the Drier
GFS solution and keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday
night./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

Expected scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to affect the
region through the afternoon and into the early evening at all
sites (although a majority of the activity will likely be through
before the afternoon is out along the GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR corridor).
Any storms will have the potential to produce IFR conditions,
hail, gusty winds, IFR flight cats, and severe turbulence in the
vicinity. Most of the storms should be through by late evening
into the overnight with potential of patchy fog and low clouds
by daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow should hold less convective
potential and mostly VFR conditions after morning low clouds and
fog dissipate. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  91  74  91 /  30  26  14  13
Meridian      70  90  74  91 /  41  28  17  24
Vicksburg     74  92  74  91 /  24  23  12   9
Hattiesburg   71  90  72  91 /  59  26  16  27
Natchez       73  90  73  90 /  28  21  11  16
Greenville    74  91  75  91 /  16  20  10  10
Greenwood     72  91  75  90 /  17  23  12  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-172015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of the
afternoon north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk
with any severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to
the size of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>066-072>074-172015-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into this evening.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through evening along and
north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk with any
severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to the size
of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SSW FOREST            32.24N 89.51W
06/16/2017                   SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES WERE DOWN AROUND THE HOMEWOOD
            COMMUNITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
609 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW CLEVELAND          33.76N 90.76W
06/16/2017  U49 MPH          BOLIVAR            MS   AWOS

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
611 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NE FRENCH CAMP        33.36N 89.31W
06/16/2017                   CHOCTAW            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON THE TRACE.

&&

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
618 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSZ039-162345-
Noxubee MS-
618 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

At 618 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Pickensville to near Paulette.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Noxubee
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3300 8834 3299 8865 3329 8853 3329 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 271DEG 25KT 3328 8820 3295 8844

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE WEIR               33.29N 89.25W
06/16/2017                   CHOCTAW            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 12.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE ACKERMAN           33.34N 89.14W
06/16/2017                   CHOCTAW            MS   PUBLIC

            A COUPLE BLOCKING HIGHWAY 12 NEAR ACKERMAN.

&&