Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Jackson, MS

473 
WWUS54 KJAN 162151
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
451 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSC083-162200-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-170616T2215Z/
Leflore MS-
451 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEFLORE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and north central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3356 8988 3326 8993 3327 8995 3337 9017
      3342 9017 3342 9014 3346 9014 3346 9010
      3351 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 275DEG 13KT 3345 8997 

$$

MSC015-162215-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0296.000000T0000Z-170616T2215Z/
Carroll MS-
451 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY...

At 450 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Coila, or 9
miles north of Black Hawk, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  North Carrollton around 500 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Carrollton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 8988 3326 8993 3327 8995 3337 9017
      3342 9017 3342 9014 3346 9014 3346 9010
      3351 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 275DEG 13KT 3345 8997 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BYB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday:

Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage over the northern
half of the forecast area over the past few hours as lift from the
combined MCV/disturbance aloft filters southeast into the Lower MS
Valley. The atmosphere across our region is very unstable with
surface-based CAPE values ranging from 3500 to 5000 j/kg currently
and some dry air aloft is helping enhance the threat for storms
producing gusty (and possibly damaging) winds from microbursts.
There is also a decent amount of deep layer wind shear in place (by
summer standards) and this aspect of the environment will likely
lead to one or two storm clusters aggregating within the next few
hours along and north of I-20, and then advancing more or less
southeastward into southern zones late this afternoon into the
evening. The going severe thunderstorm watch will be kept in place
through 9 pm in all areas at this juncture to cover the damaging
wind threat from storms. There will also be a more secondary risk
of hail. It is likely at least some portions of watch in northern
and western zones will be able to be dropped from the watch before
the official 9 pm expiration time.

There have recently been some signals showing up for late tonight
in high resolution model output suggesting convection could again
pop up along the lingering convergent boundary (which helped
trigger today's activity). This boundary should become oriented
more north to south (near I-55) late tonight and into tomorrow
and the question mark of whether or not much late night into early
Saturday convection will occur provides more than wanted
uncertainty for first half of the weekend. Initial thinking was
that the current upper pattern (susceptible to somewhat chaotic
thunderstorm clusters) would be breaking down after today but
subtle hints of energy aloft trying to cut-off just to our south
could possibly extend the unsettled window through Saturday. For
now we are going with 30 PoPs tomorrow along and east of the I-55
corridor and will watch closely for trends in observations and
near-term high resolution forecast models. As for impacts, it is
certainly not out of the question a few strong storms could be in
the cards for tomorrow (especially in the mentioned areas) but
there is far too much uncertainty, and a general expected
lessening of instability, to considering advertising a severe risk
in the HWO/graphics at this time. Otherwise, expect highs
generally ranging from 90 to 93 with plenty of humidity to
occasional peak heat index values up to the century mark in spots.
/BB/

Saturday night through Thursday night:

On Sunday the mid-level ridge will continue to strengthen over
the region. With plenty of moisture and decent lapse rates, expect
there to be at least some isolated to scattered convection on the
periphery of the ridge in the east Sunday afternoon. Once again a
strong storm or two looks possible.

On Monday into Tuesday, an upper trough will drag a cold front south
across the area. The models are not overly robust with the
convection with this system, as the models are struggling with the
potential for a tropical system in the golf. The models want to turn
the flow around to the North in advance of this potential low and
cut off the flow of moisture to the area. High pressure and much
drier air will build in for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
upper 80s Tuesday and in the low 90s by Wednesday. By Thursday the
Global models diverge with the latest run of the ECMWF trying to
bring some remnant tropical moisture northward over the area, while
the GFS keeps the moisture to the south. Will lean towards the Drier
GFS solution and keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday
night./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

Expected scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to affect the
region through the afternoon and into the early evening at all
sites (although a majority of the activity will likely be through
before the afternoon is out along the GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR corridor).
Any storms will have the potential to produce IFR conditions,
hail, gusty winds, IFR flight cats, and severe turbulence in the
vicinity. Most of the storms should be through by late evening
into the overnight with potential of patchy fog and low clouds
by daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow should hold less convective
potential and mostly VFR conditions after morning low clouds and
fog dissipate. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  91  74  91 /  30  26  14  13
Meridian      70  90  74  91 /  41  28  17  24
Vicksburg     74  92  74  91 /  24  23  12   9
Hattiesburg   71  90  72  91 /  59  26  16  27
Natchez       73  90  73  90 /  28  21  11  16
Greenville    74  91  75  91 /  16  20  10  10
Greenwood     72  91  75  90 /  17  23  12  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-172015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of the
afternoon north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk
with any severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to
the size of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>066-072>074-172015-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into this evening.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through evening along and
north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk with any
severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to the size
of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
254 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSZ040-047-162045-
Warren MS-Issaquena MS-
254 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ISSAQUENA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 254 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Valley Park, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Redwood around 320 PM CDT.
  Oak Ridge around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Louisiana...and west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3261 9101 3263 9100 3266 9096 3266 9087
      3250 9065 3236 9079 3258 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 317DEG 20KT 3257 9092

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
328 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSZ026-162100-
Grenada MS-
328 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRENADA COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Bew Springs, or 7 miles northwest of Grenada, moving east at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Grenada around 340 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
north central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3387 8977 3387 8959 3368 8969 3368 9014
      3381 9014 3381 8998 3382 8998 3382 8993
      3390 8992 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 269DEG 17KT 3384 8991

10