Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
430 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front from the northwest will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region today with the potential for some
storms to be severe. High pressure will follow the front,
providing dry weather for Saturday and Sunday. A series of upper
level disturbances will move across the region Monday through
Wednesday providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms that formed this morning has
pushed southeast and is currently approaching Hillsboro. An
outflow boundary from the earlier convection now extends from
the central of the CWA northwest towards Lake Michigan (as seen
on radar and GOES R). ML Cape values on the SPC mesoanalysis
are between 1000 and 1500 J/kg which matches up nicely with the
07.18z KILN sounding. DCAPE ahead of the line is around 1400 J/
kg with SFC - 6 km shear around 35 kts. Low level lapse rates
also remain favorable at 7 degrees C/ km. Given the extending
outflow and existing instability see no reason why ongoing
development upstream won't continue to work its way southeast
along the old outflow. Also, with the parameters above the
threat for severe weather will continue through the afternoon
into evening. Shear is sufficient to support cellular
organization initially with a linear feature being the most
probable outcome. Hail and wind will the primary threats
initially with individual cells. The primary threat will then
transition to damaging winds as cell mergers occur.

By later this evening the mid level ridging across the mountain
west will continue to amplify with the upper level through axis
swinging through Indiana. The 850 mb front is then forecasted
to swing through late this evening which should finally help to
bring an end to the showers and thunderstorms. The surface cold
front in association with the upper level trough axis will pass
through the CWA this evening and clear the CWA Saturday morning.
The 850 mb front and much lower PWAT air will be right on its
heels with PWATs falling from around 1.70" to around 0.79"
Saturday morning.

The back side of the trough axis remains more across the midwest
though and surface high pressure will initially build in across
the plains Saturday morning. The pressure gradient does remain
slightly elevated Saturday morning, but with saturated ground
fog looks possible. Overall have discounted the effect of the
light wind and think the falling dewpoints will lag slightly
behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A surface cold front will be pushing southeast of the CWA
Saturday morning with drier air slowly working into the region.
Some high res models and global models (GFS/ NAM/ NMM) are
trying to indicate some weak showers forming Saturday afternoon
as another weak shortwave rotates around the trough axis.
Looking at forecast soundings does reveal a layer of saturation
around 800 mb, but the layer does appear thin. Above this
saturation layer (700 to 200 mb) significant dry air
encroaches from the north. The ILN CWA also lies on the
covergent side of the upper level trough axis. Due to the
mentioned above have kept the forecast area dry Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
West northwest upper level flow between a long wave trough over
eastern Canada and high pressure in the central/southern Plains will
prevail through the week. This will set the stage for a convectively
active period. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
Monday into Tuesday as a front lays out across the lower Great
Lakes. Appears that there will be a lull in activity around mid
week. The chance of storms returns Thursday into Friday as another
weak boundary sags towards the region.

Temperatures will warm to near or above normal after Sunday with
more humid conditions also returning and then persisting through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms continue to approach the
TAF sites this afternoon ahead of a mid level shortwave. During
the afternoon this line of showers and thunderstorms will
dive southeast and affect the TAF sites (except KCVG/ KLUK).
The outflow from these storms can then be seen extending
northwest towards Lake Michigan (seen on GOES R). It is likely
that the ongoing convection currently just southeast of Lake
Michigan will likely dive southeast towards KCVG/ KLUK.

In the line of showers and thunderstorms gusts of 30 to 50 kts
will be possible with restrictions in visibilities to LIFR. The
second line will likely clear the TAF sites this evening. A cold
front will then dive southeast through the TAF sites late this
evening with high pressure slowly building in from the north.
High res guidance continues to also advertise restricted
visibilities/fog near the Indiana/ Ohio state line Saturday
morning which looks likely given the wet ground and light winds.
Have added a mention of fog into KLUK for now with restrictions
in visibilities possibly needed at KCVG and KDAY.

Saturday morning after any fog lifts, northwest winds with VFR
conditions can be expected.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Haines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
538 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-082145-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
538 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon and are
forecast to continue into the evening. Some of these storms will be
severe, with a threat for damaging winds and large hail.

Some storms also have the potential for heavy rain. Flash flooding
will be possible in some of the heavier storms or where training
occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should activate and report significant weather conditions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
556 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

OHZ063-072-080-072230-
Highland OH-Fayette OH-Clinton OH-
556 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE...CENTRAL
CLINTON AND NORTHWESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Blanchester, moving east at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Nickel size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Wilmington, Blanchester, Sabina, Leesburg, New Vienna, Clarksville,
Martinsville, Midland, Highland, New Antioch, Samantha, Westboro,
Cuba, Lees Creek, Morrisville, Cowan Lake State Park and Burtonville.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3926 8400 3940 8399 3951 8353 3924 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 253DEG 29KT 3934 8393

Novak

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONNERSVILLE            39.66N 85.14W
07/07/2017                   FAYETTE            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN -- TIME ESTIMATED

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST ELKTON             39.59N 84.55W
07/07/2017                   PREBLE             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIBERTY                 39.63N 84.93W
07/07/2017                   UNION              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN -- TIME ESTIMATED

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLLEGE CORNER          39.57N 84.81W
07/07/2017                   PREBLE             OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN -- TIME ESTIMATED

0540 PM     FLOOD            CAMDEN                  39.64N 84.65W
07/07/2017                   PREBLE             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLOODING ON RTE 725

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
606 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

INZ066-073-074-072230-
Franklin IN-Ripley IN-Dearborn IN-
606 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHEASTERN RIPLEY AND NORTHWESTERN DEARBORN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
EDT...

At 606 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Greensburg,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Penny size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Oldenburg, Lake Santee, Sunman, Napoleon, Huntersville,
Hamburg, Ballstown, Lawrenceville, Penntown, Saint Peter and
Interstate 74 at State Route 101.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 159.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3927 8530 3944 8530 3933 8499 3910 8518
      3923 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 302DEG 24KT 3938 8540

Sites

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON                39.40N 84.56W
07/07/2017  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL MEASURED IN HAMILTON.

&&

HAINES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
612 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLERAIN TOWNSHIP       39.26N 84.63W
07/07/2017                   HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

JGIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
617 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             WEST CHESTER            39.33N 84.40W
07/07/2017  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&