Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
241 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front from the northwest will bring the likelihood for
showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. High pressure will
follow the front, providing dry weather for Saturday and
Sunday. Another cold front is forecast to sag south from the
Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday, with more showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401 in effect until 5 PM EDT this
afternoon across central Ohio and Indiana.

Main update to morning package was to the PoPs as showers and
thunderstorms have already developed across northern Indiana and
are pushing southeast. Earlier this morning another complex of
showers and thunderstorms pushed east across the area and left a
outflow just southeast of Columbus (as seen on GOES R). The
showers and thunderstorms currently in Indiana will likely dive
southeast and follow the old out flow. ML Cape out ahead of the
showers and thunderstorms are around 1500 to 2500 J/kg with
around 20 to 30 kts of SFC - 3km and SFC - 6km shear. The better
shear remains further northwest near the upper level support.
Latest high res guidance has struggled catching on with the
latest trends with the HRRRX seeming to try and catch on.
Current thinking is for current complex of showers and
thunderstorms over northern Indiana to dive southeast and
weaken. More redevelopment is then forecasted on the western
edge and is forecasted to push south towards Cincinnati this
afternoon into evening.

The surface cold front will then trail behind this evening.
Secondary development along the cold front looks less likely
given the convection that looks likely to have occurred out
ahead of the front. New zones already out.

Prev Discussion->
Patchy fog has developed over ground that is moist after recent
rainfall. Have issued SPS for reduced visibilities through 9
am. Though visibilities seem to be improving a bit as drier air
works in from the west, will continue to monitor for possible
NPW.

Once fog burns off by mid morning, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase with daytime heating, especially
this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

As thunderstorms become likely by late afternoon, some storms
could reach severe limits in an environment containing moderate
instability and ample wind fields. Severe weather may be more
prevalent in northern locations where stronger winds will
further enhance storm organization.

High temperatures in the mid 80s will be around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Cold front will be over the southern part of the CWA this
evening, before traveling across the Ohio River tonight.
Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will continue early
tonight in southern counties, until daytime instability wanes,
and frontal forcing diminishes.

For Saturday, an area of high pressure is forecast to move in on
a northwest flow aloft, bringing mostly sunny and dry weather.

Cold advection will allow below normal highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow with surface high pressure building across the region
Sunday. This high will provide dry weather with highs generally in
the lower 80s.

Southerly flow on the back side of the high will result in an
increase in moisture. Will show chance pops for thunderstorms Monday
with the best chance across the north, closer to an east-west
oriented frontal boundary. Temperatures will be a little warmer with
highs Monday from the lower 80s north to the mid 80s south.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Tuesday and
Wednesday as the front drops south across the region toward mid
week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be generally in the mid 80s.
Model solutions differ on timing but show a wave pushing through the
Great Lakes Thursday and the front slipping south of the Ohio River
by the end of the week. Uncertainty increases due to model solution
spread but this front will keep the threat of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures look to continue close
to normal with highs generally in the mid 80s Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms continue to approach the
TAF sites this afternoon ahead of a mid level shortwave. During
the afternoon this line of showers and thunderstorms will
dive southeast and affect the TAF sites (except KCVG/ KLUK).
The outflow from these storms can then be seen extending
northwest towards Lake Michigan (seen on GOES R). It is likely
that the ongoing convection currently just southeast of Lake
Michigan will likely dive southeast towards KCVG/ KLUK.

In the line of showers and thunderstorms gusts of 30 to 50 kts
will be possible with restrictions in visibilities to LIFR. The
second line will likely clear the TAF sites this evening. A cold
front will then dive southeast through the TAF sites late this
evening with high pressure slowly building in from the north.
High res guidance continues to also advertise restricted
visibilities/fog near the Indiana/ Ohio state line Saturday
morning which looks likely given the wet ground and light winds.
Have added a mention of fog into KLUK for now with restrictions
in visibilities possibly needed at KCVG and KDAY.

Saturday morning after any fog lifts, northwest winds with VFR
conditions can be expected.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Haines
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Haines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1112 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>074-077>082-088-081515-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1112 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening.
Some of these storms may become severe, with a threat for damaging
winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-081515-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-
1112 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening.
Some of these storms may become severe, with a threat for damaging
winds and large hail.

Some storms also have the potential for heavy rain. Flash flooding
will be possible in some of the heavier storms or where training
occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

OHZ056-071830-
Licking OH-
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LICKING COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

At 154 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorms in Licking
County.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Penny size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Heath, Granville, Pataskala, Buckeye Lake, Hebron, Utica,
Hanover, Harbor Hills, Granville South, Marne, Thornport, Etna.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 116 and 142, and near
mile marker 144.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3995 8220 3995 8223 3991 8223 3995 8273
      4010 8248 4016 8261 4025 8247 4024 8239
      4024 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 316DEG 23KT 4009 8246

Sites

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KILBOURNE               40.33N 82.96W
07/07/2017  M1.70 INCH       DELAWARE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

MBP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

OHZ054>056-063>065-073-071845-
Licking OH-Fairfield OH-Ross OH-Fayette OH-Madison OH-Franklin OH-
Pickaway OH-
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...
FAIRFIELD...FAYETTE...PICKAWAY...SOUTHWESTERN LICKING...SOUTHERN
MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 214 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Reynoldsburg to Jeffersonville, moving south at
25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Lancaster, Reynoldsburg, Grove City, Gahanna, Pickerington,
Washington Court House, Circleville, Bexley, Canal Winchester,
Groveport, Ashville, Baltimore, Buckeye Lake, Mount Sterling, South
Bloomfield, Bremen, Jeffersonville, Millersport and Williamsport.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 102 and 114.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 69 and 105.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3939 8341 3974 8362 4002 8277 3995 8278
      3993 8246 3984 8247 3984 8243 3983 8240
      3983 8239 3975 8240 3974 8237 3972 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 346DEG 22KT 3994 8275 3963 8355

Sites

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
224 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND GST     KLCK RICKENBACKER APT   39.81N 82.93W
07/07/2017  M58 MPH          FRANKLIN           OH   AWOS

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>