Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Wilmington, OH

670 
WWUS51 KILN 072303
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
703 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

OHC001-015-071-131-141-145-072315-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-170707T2315Z/
Brown OH-Adams OH-Pike OH-Highland OH-Scioto OH-Ross OH-
703 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BROWN...NORTHERN ADAMS...WESTERN PIKE...SOUTHERN
HIGHLAND...NORTHWESTERN SCIOTO AND SOUTHERN ROSS COUNTIES...

At 703 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Cynthiana,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Hillsboro, Peebles, Winchester, Marshall, Sardinia,
Seaman, Bainbridge, Pike Lake, Kincaid Springs, Belfast, Rocky Fork
Point, Highland Holiday, Cynthiana, North Folk Village, New Market,
Emerald, Mowrystown, South Salem and Sinking Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 8334 3897 8387 3917 8373 3938 8325
      3939 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 290DEG 28KT 3918 8328 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Novak

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
430 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front from the northwest will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region today with the potential for some
storms to be severe. High pressure will follow the front,
providing dry weather for Saturday and Sunday. A series of upper
level disturbances will move across the region Monday through
Wednesday providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms that formed this morning has
pushed southeast and is currently approaching Hillsboro. An
outflow boundary from the earlier convection now extends from
the central of the CWA northwest towards Lake Michigan (as seen
on radar and GOES R). ML Cape values on the SPC mesoanalysis
are between 1000 and 1500 J/kg which matches up nicely with the
07.18z KILN sounding. DCAPE ahead of the line is around 1400 J/
kg with SFC - 6 km shear around 35 kts. Low level lapse rates
also remain favorable at 7 degrees C/ km. Given the extending
outflow and existing instability see no reason why ongoing
development upstream won't continue to work its way southeast
along the old outflow. Also, with the parameters above the
threat for severe weather will continue through the afternoon
into evening. Shear is sufficient to support cellular
organization initially with a linear feature being the most
probable outcome. Hail and wind will the primary threats
initially with individual cells. The primary threat will then
transition to damaging winds as cell mergers occur.

By later this evening the mid level ridging across the mountain
west will continue to amplify with the upper level through axis
swinging through Indiana. The 850 mb front is then forecasted
to swing through late this evening which should finally help to
bring an end to the showers and thunderstorms. The surface cold
front in association with the upper level trough axis will pass
through the CWA this evening and clear the CWA Saturday morning.
The 850 mb front and much lower PWAT air will be right on its
heels with PWATs falling from around 1.70" to around 0.79"
Saturday morning.

The back side of the trough axis remains more across the midwest
though and surface high pressure will initially build in across
the plains Saturday morning. The pressure gradient does remain
slightly elevated Saturday morning, but with saturated ground
fog looks possible. Overall have discounted the effect of the
light wind and think the falling dewpoints will lag slightly
behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A surface cold front will be pushing southeast of the CWA
Saturday morning with drier air slowly working into the region.
Some high res models and global models (GFS/ NAM/ NMM) are
trying to indicate some weak showers forming Saturday afternoon
as another weak shortwave rotates around the trough axis.
Looking at forecast soundings does reveal a layer of saturation
around 800 mb, but the layer does appear thin. Above this
saturation layer (700 to 200 mb) significant dry air
encroaches from the north. The ILN CWA also lies on the
covergent side of the upper level trough axis. Due to the
mentioned above have kept the forecast area dry Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
West northwest upper level flow between a long wave trough over
eastern Canada and high pressure in the central/southern Plains will
prevail through the week. This will set the stage for a convectively
active period. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
Monday into Tuesday as a front lays out across the lower Great
Lakes. Appears that there will be a lull in activity around mid
week. The chance of storms returns Thursday into Friday as another
weak boundary sags towards the region.

Temperatures will warm to near or above normal after Sunday with
more humid conditions also returning and then persisting through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms continue to approach the
TAF sites this afternoon ahead of a mid level shortwave. During
the afternoon this line of showers and thunderstorms will
dive southeast and affect the TAF sites (except KCVG/ KLUK).
The outflow from these storms can then be seen extending
northwest towards Lake Michigan (seen on GOES R). It is likely
that the ongoing convection currently just southeast of Lake
Michigan will likely dive southeast towards KCVG/ KLUK.

In the line of showers and thunderstorms gusts of 30 to 50 kts
will be possible with restrictions in visibilities to LIFR. The
second line will likely clear the TAF sites this evening. A cold
front will then dive southeast through the TAF sites late this
evening with high pressure slowly building in from the north.
High res guidance continues to also advertise restricted
visibilities/fog near the Indiana/ Ohio state line Saturday
morning which looks likely given the wet ground and light winds.
Have added a mention of fog into KLUK for now with restrictions
in visibilities possibly needed at KCVG and KDAY.

Saturday morning after any fog lifts, northwest winds with VFR
conditions can be expected.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Haines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
538 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-082145-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
538 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon and are
forecast to continue into the evening. Some of these storms will be
severe, with a threat for damaging winds and large hail.

Some storms also have the potential for heavy rain. Flash flooding
will be possible in some of the heavier storms or where training
occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should activate and report significant weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON                39.40N 84.56W
07/07/2017  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL MEASURED IN HAMILTON.

&&

HAINES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
612 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLERAIN TOWNSHIP       39.26N 84.63W
07/07/2017                   HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

JGIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
617 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             WEST CHESTER            39.33N 84.40W
07/07/2017  M1.00 INCH       BUTLER             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W BLUE ASH            39.25N 84.45W
07/07/2017  U0.00 INCH       HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PONDING ON ALL LANES OF I-75 AT EXIT 14.

&&

JGIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND GST     KLUK LUNKEN AIRPORT     39.10N 84.42W
07/07/2017  M47 MPH          HAMILTON           OH   ASOS

&&

BHAINES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTEVILLE            39.19N 83.93W
07/07/2017                   BROWN              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF AND 5-6 TREES DOWN ACCORDING TO
            DISPATCHER.

&&

JGIBSON