Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
241 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front from the northwest will bring the likelihood for
showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. High pressure will
follow the front, providing dry weather for Saturday and
Sunday. Another cold front is forecast to sag south from the
Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday, with more showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401 in effect until 5 PM EDT this
afternoon across central Ohio and Indiana.

Main update to morning package was to the PoPs as showers and
thunderstorms have already developed across northern Indiana and
are pushing southeast. Earlier this morning another complex of
showers and thunderstorms pushed east across the area and left a
outflow just southeast of Columbus (as seen on GOES R). The
showers and thunderstorms currently in Indiana will likely dive
southeast and follow the old out flow. ML Cape out ahead of the
showers and thunderstorms are around 1500 to 2500 J/kg with
around 20 to 30 kts of SFC - 3km and SFC - 6km shear. The better
shear remains further northwest near the upper level support.
Latest high res guidance has struggled catching on with the
latest trends with the HRRRX seeming to try and catch on.
Current thinking is for current complex of showers and
thunderstorms over northern Indiana to dive southeast and
weaken. More redevelopment is then forecasted on the western
edge and is forecasted to push south towards Cincinnati this
afternoon into evening.

The surface cold front will then trail behind this evening.
Secondary development along the cold front looks less likely
given the convection that looks likely to have occurred out
ahead of the front. New zones already out.

Prev Discussion->
Patchy fog has developed over ground that is moist after recent
rainfall. Have issued SPS for reduced visibilities through 9
am. Though visibilities seem to be improving a bit as drier air
works in from the west, will continue to monitor for possible
NPW.

Once fog burns off by mid morning, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase with daytime heating, especially
this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

As thunderstorms become likely by late afternoon, some storms
could reach severe limits in an environment containing moderate
instability and ample wind fields. Severe weather may be more
prevalent in northern locations where stronger winds will
further enhance storm organization.

High temperatures in the mid 80s will be around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Cold front will be over the southern part of the CWA this
evening, before traveling across the Ohio River tonight.
Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will continue early
tonight in southern counties, until daytime instability wanes,
and frontal forcing diminishes.

For Saturday, an area of high pressure is forecast to move in on
a northwest flow aloft, bringing mostly sunny and dry weather.

Cold advection will allow below normal highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow with surface high pressure building across the region
Sunday. This high will provide dry weather with highs generally in
the lower 80s.

Southerly flow on the back side of the high will result in an
increase in moisture. Will show chance pops for thunderstorms Monday
with the best chance across the north, closer to an east-west
oriented frontal boundary. Temperatures will be a little warmer with
highs Monday from the lower 80s north to the mid 80s south.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Tuesday and
Wednesday as the front drops south across the region toward mid
week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be generally in the mid 80s.
Model solutions differ on timing but show a wave pushing through the
Great Lakes Thursday and the front slipping south of the Ohio River
by the end of the week. Uncertainty increases due to model solution
spread but this front will keep the threat of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures look to continue close
to normal with highs generally in the mid 80s Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms continue to approach the
TAF sites this afternoon ahead of a mid level shortwave. During
the afternoon this line of showers and thunderstorms will
dive southeast and affect the TAF sites (except KCVG/ KLUK).
The outflow from these storms can then be seen extending
northwest towards Lake Michigan (seen on GOES R). It is likely
that the ongoing convection currently just southeast of Lake
Michigan will likely dive southeast towards KCVG/ KLUK.

In the line of showers and thunderstorms gusts of 30 to 50 kts
will be possible with restrictions in visibilities to LIFR. The
second line will likely clear the TAF sites this evening. A cold
front will then dive southeast through the TAF sites late this
evening with high pressure slowly building in from the north.
High res guidance continues to also advertise restricted
visibilities/fog near the Indiana/ Ohio state line Saturday
morning which looks likely given the wet ground and light winds.
Have added a mention of fog into KLUK for now with restrictions
in visibilities possibly needed at KCVG and KDAY.

Saturday morning after any fog lifts, northwest winds with VFR
conditions can be expected.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Haines
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Haines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1112 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>074-077>082-088-081515-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1112 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening.
Some of these storms may become severe, with a threat for damaging
winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-081515-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-
1112 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening.
Some of these storms may become severe, with a threat for damaging
winds and large hail.

Some storms also have the potential for heavy rain. Flash flooding
will be possible in some of the heavier storms or where training
occurs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW DOWNTOWN COLUMBUS 39.94N 83.07W
07/07/2017                   FRANKLIN           OH   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE FELL ON WIRES AT OGDEN AND MOUND. PHOTO
            VERIFIED. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JGIBSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

INZ050-072015-
Wayne IN-
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 347 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 11 miles
southeast of Muncie, moving southeast at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Nickel size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Centerville, Hagerstown, Fountain City, Franklin, Abington,
Greens Fork, Spring Grove, Bethel, Economy, Boston, Whitewater.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 138 and 156.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4000 8520 4000 8481 3973 8481 3973 8497
      3989 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 302DEG 27KT 4007 8525

Sites

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE SUNBURY           40.24N 82.83W
07/07/2017                   DELAWARE           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN PORTER TOWNSHIP, GENOA
            TOWNSHIP, AND HARLEM TOWNSHIP. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JGIBSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
409 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

OHZ073-082-072045-
Pike OH-Ross OH-
409 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PIKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Waverly,
moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Penny size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Piketon, Beaver, Givens, Pike County Airport, Richmond Dale,
Linn, Lake White and Omega.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3917 8277 3917 8278 3903 8280 3903 8303
      3920 8303 3925 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 252DEG 22KT 3914 8298

Sites

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

INZ050-059-OHZ042-060-072045-
Union IN-Wayne IN-Darke OH-Preble OH-
412 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN PREBLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN DARKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Hagerstown,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Nickel size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Centerville, Hagerstown, New Paris, New Madison, Fountain
City, Abington, Wayne Lakes, Greens Fork, East Germantown, Spring
Grove, Bethel, Hollansburg, Palestine, Economy, Boston, Whitewater,
Richmond Municipal Airport, Witts Station and Middleboro.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 134 and 156.
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 3.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3987 8520 3995 8520 4000 8515 4000 8481
      4010 8481 4005 8462 3967 8485 3986 8522
      3987 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 301DEG 23KT 3992 8511

Novak