River Flood Warning 23, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
443 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to work through the region this
morning. A disturbance will work across southern portions of the
region Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front will continue to work through the region this
morning. Scattered showers and some drizzle will still be
possible this morning after the frontal passage. Winds also pick
up with the frontal passage with some wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph. Expect these wind gusts to be short lived and only for a
few hours after the frontal passage. Model soundings indicate
that drizzle should taper off later this morning, however plenty
of cloud cover will remain. With CAA temperatures today will
struggle to rise across the region.

Although some rain remains across the region, the heaviest and
most widespread rain has come to an end therefore the flash
flood watch was allowed to be cancelled. Some residual flooding
will remain across the region this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Although dry conditions will start out the short term expect the
dry conditions to be short lived as isentropic lift increases
across southern portions of the region overnight. Increased
precipitation chances across southern portions of the area due
to this. There is no instability therefore do not have any
thunder mention in. Rain showers will begin to taper off Tuesday
morning into the afternoon hours as the best lift moves out of
the region. With continued cloud cover across the region on
Tuesday do not expect most locations to make it out of the 40s.
Winds will also be breezy on Tuesday with wind gusts around 20
to 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak positively tilted short wave will push across the area early
in the period, which could bring some additional light showers to
far southern counties Tuesday night. Thereafter, high pressure will
build in with dry and cool conditions. There will be a reenforcement
of the cooler air late in the week which will drop high to 10
degrees below normal. The high pressure system will move off to the
east over the weekend. 00Z models continue to have timing
differences with the next short wave tracking across the country.
Forecast leans towards the slower ECMWF which would hold off on
showers until Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thunderstorms will move out of the TAF sites overnight. Vsbys
will be reduced at times with this activity. Some residual
showers may linger into the early daytime hours. IFR to MVFR
cigs are expected for most of the TAF period, with improvement
to VFR at the end of the TAF period.

A brief period of gusty winds around 20 knots will be possible
later tonight and into the early daytime morning hours.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
405 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-071000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
405 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
147 AM EST MON NOV 6 2017

OHZ081-082-088-060715-
Pike OH-Scioto OH-Adams OH-
147 AM EST MON NOV 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ADAMS...
SOUTHWESTERN PIKE AND NORTHWESTERN SCIOTO COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM
EST...

At 146 AM EST, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Peebles,
moving east at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Piketon, Peebles, Kincaid Springs, Lucasville, Rarden,
Ladd, Mount Joy, Bear Creek, Lake White, Smoky Corners and Idaho.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3889 8346 3905 8341 3906 8339 3910 8337
      3912 8294 3885 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 268DEG 19KT 3899 8337

Sites

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
148 AM EST MON NOV 6 2017

OHZ073-082-060715-
Pike OH-Ross OH-
148 AM EST MON NOV 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EST...

At 147 AM EST, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Bainbridge,
moving east at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Waverly, Bainbridge, Pike Lake, North Folk Village,
Summithill, Bourneville, Knockemstiff, Pike County Airport,
Massieville, Scioto Trail State Park and Buchanan.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3913 8336 3933 8328 3938 8293 3914 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 268DEG 19KT 3924 8326

Sites

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 AM EST MON NOV 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     FLOOD            BLUE ASH                39.25N 84.38W
11/06/2017                   HAMILTON           OH   PUBLIC

            TWO FEET OF WATER IN APARTMENT ON FOX RUN DRIVE.

&&

MBP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
207 AM EST MON NOV 6 2017

INZ066-073-074-060745-
Franklin IN-Ripley IN-Dearborn IN-
207 AM EST MON NOV 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN
RIPLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL DEARBORN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EST...

At 207 AM EST, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Batesville,
moving east at 40 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Brookville, Oldenburg, Metamora, St. Leon, Peppertown,
Huntersville, Hamburg, Ballstown, Penntown, Saint Peter and
Interstate 74 at State Route 101.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 159.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3927 8530 3937 8529 3949 8504 3930 8495
      3922 8533 3924 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0707Z 251DEG 36KT 3929 8531

Sites

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 AM EST MON NOV 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MASON                   39.36N 84.31W
11/06/2017                   WARREN             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING HAD CLOSED HAMILTON ROAD AND MASON
            MONTGOMERY ROAD, WITH HIGH WATER NEAR COLUMBIA AND IRWIN
            SIMPSON ROAD.

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EST MON NOV 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLUE ASH                39.25N 84.38W
11/06/2017                   HAMILTON           OH   PUBLIC

            TWO FEET OF WATER IN APARTMENT ON FOX RUN DRIVE.

&&

JDR