Areal Flood Warning 39, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
921 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will ripple along a cold front as they push
southeast across the region tonight. Clouds and a few lingering
showers are expected on Monday along with cooler temperatures.
A disturbance will move across the Ohio Valley Monday night into
Tuesday which will bring a threat for some showers, mainly
along and south of the Ohio River.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure will ripple along a cold front as they push
southeast across the region tonight. Severe threat seems to be
waning, with the main concern now flooding/flash flooding.
Although precipitation is clearing from our northwest, radar
indicates some elevated convection developing just west of
Indianapolis which may push back into this area. As such, will
maintain Flash Flood Watch until 4 am EST for the northern
three fourths of the CWFA. Overnight lows will be dependent on
how fast the front moves through. Have lows ranging from the mid
40s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The front will move southeast of the region on Monday,
with precipitation gradually exiting the southeast during the
morning hours. Clouds will remain in the CAA behind the front.
Temperatures will either slowly fall or recover only slightly
from morning highs.

For Monday night, models continue to show an upper level
disturbance move across the Ohio Valley, perturbing a wave of
low pressure along the old frontal boundary to our south. This
will bring a chance of showers, mainly along and south of the
Ohio River. Likely PoPs may end up skimming our far south. Lows
will range from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong vorticity maxima in the mean westerly h5 flow will combine
with a surface inverted trough nosing northeast from the Tennessee
Valley to permit continued shower activity over northern Kentucky
and portions of south central Ohio early Tuesday. This will then
lead to high pressure keeping any precip chances out of the picture
until the end of the weekend. This will occur as the axis of the
high that will then be moving into Quebec reaches the Appalachians
and return flow sets up in the western Ohio Valley. Models diverge
on the broad pattern, but a H5 trough and surface low moving in from
the Midwest will increase the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday night and Sunday.

High temperatures will be slightly below normal through the end of
the work week and then warm for the weekend. Lows will be similar -
at or slightly below normal until the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will push southeast across the region
through this evening and early morning as low pressure and a
cold front move through. MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR/LIFR
visbilities can be expected with the most intense storms.

For later tonight into Monday, the front and low will push to
the southeast. Showers and storms will taper off to a chance of
showers with MVFR perhaps locally IFR ceilings expected.

On Monday, region should see a reprieve in the precipitation
behind the front, however, clouds and MVFR ceilings will linger.
Models are now indicating that ceilings may go VFR by Monday
evening.

Another embedded disturbance will approach the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Monday night. This will perturb a wave of low
pressure along the boundary to our south and may bring a few
showers to our southern terminals.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Monday for KYZ091>093.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
949 PM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KDAY DAYTON COX APT     39.90N 84.22W
11/05/2017  M3.51 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   ASOS

            STORM TOTAL FOR THE DAY SO FAR. STILL RAINING.

&&

HICKMAN