Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Northern Rockies.
Southeast of this trough smaller short wave troughs were beginning
to form over Colorado.  At the surface a dry line was extending
northwest from the southeast corner of Colorado toward Denver.

For the rest of the afternoon am expecting strong to severe storms
to move into East Central Colorado around 4 or 5 PM MT as the upper
level short wave trough approaches from the west.  As the trough
approaches, lift will increase along the dry line which will cause
some isolated to scattered storm development.  Due to the drier
environment and weaker lift south of the main short wave trough, do
not anticipate much storm coverage.  However these storms will be in
a much better environment to become severe.

CAPE sharply increases in a corridor east of the dry line until the
surface winds turn more to the southeast than south. Given the
proximity to the surface low, fairly low cloud bases, and 0-1km
shear on the low end for tornado development, cannot rule out the
possibility of a tornado.  This will mainly be a factor for Kit
Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado.  Further east into Kansas
the environment becomes more stable which should limit the potential
for tornadoes to form. Comparing conditions to SPC tornado stats
favor EF1 tornadoes.

Deep layer shear is even stronger than yesterday and CAPE is a bit
higher as well, so foresee a chance for hail up to baseball size
based on what happened yesterday.  Damaging winds will also be
likely with any storms that develop.

This evening storms will move east across the rest of the Tri-State
Area.  Am expecting a cluster of storms to remain north of Highway
24.  The main threat with these storms will be heavy rainfall due to
precipitable water values in the 90th percentile.  Don't have quite
enough confidence to issue a watch at this time due to the storms
moving just fast enough to negate a flood threat.  Along and south
of Highway 24 elevated CAPE will form and may be strong enough for
severe storms to form.  If the elevated CAPE advertised is not
capped off, hail up to baseball size is possible.  The threat for
damaging winds should end by 9 or 10 PM local time.  This round of
storms should move east of the forecast area by midnight.

Another round of strong to severe storms will move in from the
northwest over the east half to third of the forecast area.  Am
anticipating this to be more of a line storms.  These storms will be
be along/behind a cold front moving through.  As with the storms
with the first round, if the elevated CAPE advertised is not capped
off hail up to baseball size is possible.  Due to the inversion in
place am not expecting straight-line winds with these storms.

Saturday the storms over the east part of the forecast area will
push east by mid morning.  During the latter part of the afternoon
the upper level trough axis swings over the west part of the
forecast area.  This will be enough for a few storms to develop, but
not expecting any severe weather to occur.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Saturday night-Sunday: Rain showers linger through the evening over
southwest portions of the CWA as the main trough axis moves
downstream of the area. Upper level ridge will build through Sunday
bringing drier conditions to the area. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.

Monday-Tuesday: Cold front moves into the area during the day Monday
and becomes stalled with a northwest to southeast orientation across
the CWA. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night through Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Friday: Models do not have very good agreement for this
period. GFS and ECMWF differ in synoptic setup and timing of when
upper level ridging will eventually push east of our area. General
consensus is for this period to be wet with periodic chances of rain
and thunderstorms. Heaviest rain appears to be favored for the
eastern half of our area, coming Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. The forecast for this time frame is certain to change, but
will need to be monitored by future shifts since most models do
indicate an active period for this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

At KGLD... thunderstorms will move through the terminal during the
overnight with brief reductions in visibility and ceilings. Some
gusty winds and small hail may accompany the storms. A cold front
will move through the terminal around 12z with increasing
northwest winds. Scattered showers and a period of lower ceilings
will likely follow the frontal passage through about mid
afternoon.

At KMCK...light to occasionally moderate rain will continue
through the overnight hours. Main impact will be reduced
visibility, but ceilings may also lower to MVFR. A cold front will
move through the terminal Saturday morning with surface winds
increasing from the northwest. Scattered showers and a period of
lower ceilings will likely follow the frontal passage through
about mid afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1059 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271700-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1059 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017 /1159 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe storms will develop late this afternoon over
Eastern Colorado, spreading east tonight. Large hail up to baseball
size is possible with these storms, with the odds of giant hail
increasing overnight. A tornado or two may occur over Kit Carson or
Cheyenne counties in Colorado late this afternoon into the early
evening along with damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH that may stretch
from these counties into Sherman and Wallace County.

A second round of severe storms may move through overnight, moving
over McCook, Oberlin, Norton, and Hill City areas. Giant hail up to
baseball size is possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Any strong to severe storms from tonight will exit Norton and Graham
counties around 8 AM CDT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Any weather reports by phone or
social media are very helpful.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1222 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W QUINTER             39.07N 100.27W
05/27/2017  E60 MPH          GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST. ALSO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W GOVE                38.96N 100.55W
05/27/2017                   GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1236 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017

KSZ013-270700-
Sherman KS-
1236 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTY UNTIL
100 AM MDT...

At 1235 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Ruleton, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Sherman County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM MDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3942 10173 3942 10204 3957 10205 3957 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0635Z 265DEG 26KT 3949 10194

DR

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