Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
138 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

A frontal boundary is south of the I-20 corridor, but a
thunderstorm-disrupted wind field is making it difficult to
discern its precise location. The Metroplex will remain well north
of the boundary, and north flow will prevail through the daylight
hours today. In Central Texas, thunderstorms will maintain the
chaotic wind field though northeast winds should dominate.

The most intense convection will be near the front, impacting Waco
into the predawn hours. But redevelopment in the vicinity of
Coleman is proof that there is still plenty of forcing upstream.
Although severe weather is not anticipated in the Metroplex,
elevated convection is currently developing above the frontal
boundary west of the I-35 corridor, and these cells may pose a
lightning threat beyond the current AWW expiration time of 07Z.

Outside of any temporary lowerings with thunderstorms, VFR
ceilings will prevail within the Metroplex. Guidance continues to
believe ceilings should fall into the MVFR category, but with the
frontal boundary being nearly stationary and even higher VFR
ceilings deeper into the cool air, this is looking unlikely.
However, Waco will be close enough to the surface front that MVFR
ceilings are expected to persist much of the morning.

Winds will veer today, and by Tuesday night, light easterly
surface flow will prevail. This should result in a deterioration
of both ceilings and visibility, which is reflected in the Waco
TAF and the extended portion of the DFW TAF.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to let Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139 expire
and replace it with Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140 which includes
locations along and south of an Athens to Waco line.

Storms will continue along and ahead of a nearly stationary
front. Since convection has been scattered in nature and slow to
develop, the expected cold pool has also not developed as
expected. Therefore, the cold front should linger across the
southern zones for much of the overnight hours. Convection will
not only continue to develop along and ahead of the front but also
well behind the front where mid level lapse rates are still high.
Large scale forcing is also increasing due to the arrival of a
shortwave trough from West Texas. The storms north of the front
may produce some brief hail around 1 inch or a bit larger. The
storms along and ahead of the front will be capable of large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Flash flooding has already
been observed in some of the southern counties this evening and
this will likely continue overnight. Therefore, we will leave the
Flash Flood Watch in place across the southern zones through 7 AM.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/
A weak shortwave will translate across the region on Tuesday and
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day.
This activity will remain elevated above the front and should
remain well below severe limits.

Once the shortwave trough axis passes to the east, a weak ridge
will build in from the west and result in a brief dry period
Tuesday night. The presence of the ridge will be very temporary
due to the development of a strong trough across the western
states. A series of shortwaves will round the base of the long
wave trough and bring multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms
Thursday through Sunday with the best chances Thursday and again
on Sunday. At this time the severe potential appears low with the
end of the week/weekend storms.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  79  63  80  63 /  10  20  10  30  20
Waco                61  79  62  79  62 /  10  20  10  20  10
Paris               58  75  60  79  60 /  10  20  10  20  10
Denton              57  77  61  79  61 /  10  20  20  40  20
McKinney            58  77  61  78  61 /  10  20  10  30  20
Dallas              62  79  64  80  63 /  10  20  10  30  10
Terrell             60  78  62  79  61 /  10  20  10  20  10
Corsicana           62  79  62  79  61 /  20  20  10  20  10
Temple              61  78  62  78  62 /  20  20  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       57  78  61  78  60 /  10  20  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.

&&

25/58

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1140 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across all of North and Central
Texas through the night. Severe thunderstorms are possible, but most
likely south of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens.
Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards. Heavy
rainfall is also likely in the most favored severe weather area which
may result in flash flooding. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect until 7 AM. Locations north of a Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to
Athens line may see hail near or slightly larger than the size of
quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday southeast of a line
from Bonham to Weatherford to Comanche. Severe storms are not
expected.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, periodically,
across much of the region Tuesday night through Friday. Cloud to
ground lightning will be the primary hazard. Severe weather appears
unlikely at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible through the night but especially
southeast of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

TXZ095-110645-
Lamar TX-
122 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL
145 AM CDT...

At 121 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
north of Paris, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paris and Sun Valley.

LAT...LON 3363 9554 3378 9565 3389 9547 3389 9546
      3387 9546 3387 9534 3389 9533 3389 9532
      3388 9531 3371 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 241DEG 25KT 3375 9552

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
129 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NOLANVILLE              31.08N  97.62W
04/11/2017                   BELL               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING IN NOLANVILLE. 6 INCHES OF WATER COVERING
            FM 439.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
143 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

TXZ117-131-110715-
Hood TX-Parker TX-
143 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARKER AND
NORTHEASTERN HOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oak Trail Shores, or near Granbury, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Granbury, Aledo, Annetta, Oak Trail Shores, Annetta South and Annetta
North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 9780 3272 9755 3255 9755 3255 9761
      3251 9762 3242 9777 3250 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 232DEG 13KT 3250 9782

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
146 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

TXZ102-103-110715-
Denton TX-Wise TX-
146 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WISE AND
SOUTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 146 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Fairview, or 8 miles northeast of Briar, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Denton, Flower Mound, Southlake, Trophy Club, Roanoke, Pecan Acres,
Argyle, Justin, Northlake, Haslet, Bartonville, New Fairview, Aurora,
Corral City, Rhome, Ponder, Newark, Westlake and Marshall Creek.

LAT...LON 3322 9721 3299 9715 3299 9740 3300 9750
      3311 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 256DEG 14KT 3305 9743

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
150 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

TXZ103-118-119-110730-
Denton TX-Tarrant TX-Dallas TX-
150 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 150 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grapevine, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plano, Irving, Carrollton, Frisco, Richardson, Lewisville, Flower
Mound, Euless, Bedford, Grapevine, Coppell, The Colony, Farmers
Branch, Southlake, Colleyville, Addison and Hebron.

LAT...LON 3315 9684 3299 9684 3298 9675 3283 9708
      3292 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 225DEG 30KT 3291 9707

05