Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
718 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.AVIATION...
The primary aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be
thunderstorms this evening. As of 00Z, the cold front had just
cleared all the Metroplex TAF sites. However, some storms were
riding up over the front and were in the vicinity of DAL and GKY.
We have decided to keep thunder in the vicinity at those terminals
through about 03Z. Waco should see temporary periods of
thunderstorms through about 04Z with most activity shifting to the
south of Waco overnight with the front.

Low end VFR ceilings will prevail through Tuesday morning with
some temporary ceilings between 2000 and 3000 FT this evening.
The only exception will be in Waco where MVFR ceilings will
prevail overnight through Tuesday morning. All ceilings should
slowly lift Tuesday afternoon with daytime mixing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/
Convection continues to develop along and ahead of a slow moving
cold front which was near a line from Paris to Dallas to
Goldthwaite at 3 PM. The atmosphere is quite unstable and severe
thunderstorms will likely continue into the mid evening hours with
storms slowly shifting southward with the cold front. Some
elevated showers and storms are possible north of the front
through the evening, but these should remain below severe limits.
Along with the threat for large hail and damaging winds, there
will be a potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
especially southeast of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to
Athens where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM CDT
Tuesday. There is a good chance that the heavy rainfall will shift
south of the CWA overnight with the development of a strong cold
pool. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch may be canceled during the
overnight hours if this occurs.

A weak shortwave will translate across the region on Tuesday and
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day.
This activity will remain elevated above the front and should
remain well below severe limits.

Once the shortwave trough axis passes to the east, a weak ridge
will build in from the west and result in a brief dry period
Tuesday night. The presence of the ridge will be very temporary
due to the development of a strong trough across the western
states. A series of shortwaves will round the base of the long
wave trough and bring multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms
Thursday through Sunday with the best chances Thursday and again
on Sunday. At this time the severe potential appears low with the
end of the week/weekend storms.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  73  61  79  63 /  50  20  10  20  10
Waco                61  74  61  79  62 /  70  40  10  20  10
Paris               58  71  58  75  60 /  60  20  10  20  10
Denton              55  72  57  77  61 /  20  10  10  20  20
McKinney            57  71  58  77  61 /  50  20  10  20  10
Dallas              61  74  62  79  64 /  50  20  10  20  10
Terrell             60  73  60  78  62 /  60  40  10  20  10
Corsicana           62  73  62  79  62 /  70  40  20  20  10
Temple              62  73  61  78  62 /  80  50  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       54  72  57  78  61 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.

&&

79/79

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
419 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111245-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
419 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across all of North and Central
Texas through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are likely through the
evening generally along and southeast of a line from Bonham to Fort
Worth to Goldthwaite. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards. Heavy rainfall is also likely and may result in
flash flooding, especially along and south of a line from
Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens, where a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect until 7 AM. The severe threat will diminish by late evening
but the flash flood threat will continue overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday southeast of a line
from Bonham to Weatherford to Comanche. Severe storms are not
expected.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, periodically,
across much of the region Tuesday night through Friday. Cloud to
ground lightning will be the primary hazard. Severe weather appears
unlikely at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely southeast of a line from Bonham to Fort
Worth to Goldthwaite through this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
727 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             5 N PARIS               33.72N  95.53W
04/10/2017  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 5 MI N OF PARIS NEAR HWY 271

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
730 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

TXZ144-145-110115-
Bosque TX-Hill TX-
730 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BOSQUE AND
NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Meridian, or 16 miles north of Clifton, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Whitney, Blum, Covington and Morgan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Texas.

LAT...LON 3215 9747 3222 9730 3222 9728 3197 9717
      3193 9758 3203 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 249DEG 20KT 3201 9752

Carlaw

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
737 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             16 NE PARIS             33.81N  95.33W
04/10/2017  E1.75 INCH       LAMAR              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL ON FM 906E APPROX 2 MI OF FM 195 NEAR
            THE COMMUNITY OF NOVICE, 16 MI NE OF PARIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
738 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

TXZ148-110130-
Anderson TX-
738 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Palestine, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frankston and Berryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Texas.

LAT...LON 3190 9544 3187 9544 3178 9569 3188 9577
      3206 9560 3209 9543 3208 9542 3206 9544
      3204 9542 3203 9544 3201 9543 3198 9545
      3196 9544 3196 9545 3193 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 233DEG 18KT 3187 9567

Carlaw

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLIFTON                 31.78N  97.58W
04/10/2017                   BOSQUE             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ON FM 708 NEAR CLIFTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
810 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

TXZ144-145-159-110200-
Bosque TX-Hill TX-McLennan TX-
810 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MCLENNAN...SOUTHEASTERN
BOSQUE AND SOUTHWESTERN HILL COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Lake Whitney State Park, or 13 miles east of Clifton,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsboro, Clifton, West, Whitney, Valley Mills, Lake Whitney State
Park, Gholson, Leroy, Ross and Aquilla.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Texas.

LAT...LON 3171 9769 3170 9772 3171 9773 3206 9720
      3172 9698 3160 9744 3158 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 246DEG 14KT 3178 9735

Carlaw