Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
718 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.AVIATION...
The primary aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be
thunderstorms this evening. As of 00Z, the cold front had just
cleared all the Metroplex TAF sites. However, some storms were
riding up over the front and were in the vicinity of DAL and GKY.
We have decided to keep thunder in the vicinity at those terminals
through about 03Z. Waco should see temporary periods of
thunderstorms through about 04Z with most activity shifting to the
south of Waco overnight with the front.

Low end VFR ceilings will prevail through Tuesday morning with
some temporary ceilings between 2000 and 3000 FT this evening.
The only exception will be in Waco where MVFR ceilings will
prevail overnight through Tuesday morning. All ceilings should
slowly lift Tuesday afternoon with daytime mixing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/
Convection continues to develop along and ahead of a slow moving
cold front which was near a line from Paris to Dallas to
Goldthwaite at 3 PM. The atmosphere is quite unstable and severe
thunderstorms will likely continue into the mid evening hours with
storms slowly shifting southward with the cold front. Some
elevated showers and storms are possible north of the front
through the evening, but these should remain below severe limits.
Along with the threat for large hail and damaging winds, there
will be a potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding,
especially southeast of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to
Athens where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM CDT
Tuesday. There is a good chance that the heavy rainfall will shift
south of the CWA overnight with the development of a strong cold
pool. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch may be canceled during the
overnight hours if this occurs.

A weak shortwave will translate across the region on Tuesday and
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day.
This activity will remain elevated above the front and should
remain well below severe limits.

Once the shortwave trough axis passes to the east, a weak ridge
will build in from the west and result in a brief dry period
Tuesday night. The presence of the ridge will be very temporary
due to the development of a strong trough across the western
states. A series of shortwaves will round the base of the long
wave trough and bring multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms
Thursday through Sunday with the best chances Thursday and again
on Sunday. At this time the severe potential appears low with the
end of the week/weekend storms.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  73  61  79  63 /  50  20  10  20  10
Waco                61  74  61  79  62 /  70  40  10  20  10
Paris               58  71  58  75  60 /  60  20  10  20  10
Denton              55  72  57  77  61 /  20  10  10  20  20
McKinney            57  71  58  77  61 /  50  20  10  20  10
Dallas              61  74  62  79  64 /  50  20  10  20  10
Terrell             60  73  60  78  62 /  60  40  10  20  10
Corsicana           62  73  62  79  62 /  70  40  20  20  10
Temple              62  73  61  78  62 /  80  50  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       54  72  57  78  61 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.

&&

79/79

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
419 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111245-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
419 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across all of North and Central
Texas through tonight. Severe thunderstorms are likely through the
evening generally along and southeast of a line from Bonham to Fort
Worth to Goldthwaite. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards. Heavy rainfall is also likely and may result in
flash flooding, especially along and south of a line from
Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens, where a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect until 7 AM. The severe threat will diminish by late evening
but the flash flood threat will continue overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday southeast of a line
from Bonham to Weatherford to Comanche. Severe storms are not
expected.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible, periodically,
across much of the region Tuesday night through Friday. Cloud to
ground lightning will be the primary hazard. Severe weather appears
unlikely at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely southeast of a line from Bonham to Fort
Worth to Goldthwaite through this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
849 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     HAIL             5 WNW CHINA SPRING      31.68N  97.40W
04/10/2017  E1.75 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 5 MI WNW OF CHINA SPRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
851 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLIFTON                 31.78N  97.58W
04/10/2017                   BOSQUE             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING ON FM 2114 NEAR FM 2490

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
904 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

TXZ134-145-146-110245-
Ellis TX-Hill TX-Navarro TX-
904 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HILL...SOUTHWESTERN
ELLIS AND WEST CENTRAL NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 904 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Carl's Corner, or 8 miles northeast of Hillsboro, moving east at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Italy, Blooming Grove, Bardwell, Carl's Corner, Milford, Frost and
Mertens.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3200 9706 3212 9712 3236 9674 3218 9666
      3203 9669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 248DEG 25KT 3209 9700

Carlaw

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             LEROY                   31.73N  97.02W
04/10/2017  E1.00 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN LEROY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
923 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             13 NE PALESTINE         31.88N  95.47W
04/10/2017  E0.75 INCH       ANDERSON           TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED 13 MI NE OF PALESTINE IN BRUSHY
            CREEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SSE BLUM              32.07N  97.36W
04/10/2017                   HILL               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COMPLETELY COVERING THE HIGHWAY... FM 933 6 MI SSE
            OF BLUM