Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Des Moines, IA

841 
WWUS53 KDMX 070209
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
809 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

IAC039-117-135-070218-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170307T0215Z/
Monroe IA-Lucas IA-Clarke IA-
809 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MONROE...LUCAS AND
EASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CST...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for south central
Iowa.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
eastern portions of Lucas county.

LAT...LON 4116 9288 4090 9309 4090 9384 4116 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 270DEG 39KT 4114 9285 4091 9312 

$$

Curtis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
544 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 312 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Confidence:  Medium to High

Main concerns ongoing wind and severe weather.  Strong winds will
into the evening hours over the west/central and relax late evening.
As front moves east tonight winds will increase over the west and
northwest areas through the overnight hours. Severe threat already
well spelled out with watch covering the entire area through late
evening.  Fast moving storms...damaging thunderstorm winds and hail
as well as potential for isolated tornadoes due to either quasi
linear bowing segments or initially a few discrete cells.  Activity
over western Iowa may weaken with strong shear this evening with
another area of development taking place over Missouri and moving
into southeast Iowa around and after 00z...mainly from I35 east.
With a fast moving and fluid evolution of storms anticipated...
confidence on coverage over the entire area still limited.  May be
more scattered in nature at times...with one or more lines of storms
during the event.  Winds briefly drop off a bit late tonight only to
increase again on Tuesday over much of the region.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Monday/
Issued at 312 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Tuesday the forecast concern revolves around wind. Forecast
soundings mix the atmosphere to around 500mb but slightly lower
than they did yesterday and winds are just a bit less. Further
analysis in BUFKIT shows winds not really reaching high wind
warning criteria...though very close. A wind advisory for high end
wind speeds was issued for Tuesday afternoon across areas North of
a line from Carrol to Waterloo. Strongest winds are expected in
the far Northwest and North near the Minnesota border. There are
also fire weather concerns, discussed in a separate section below.
On Wednesday we will be in strong cold advection in a rather fast
Northwest flow aloft. This will bring in colder temps and once
again create a strong wind scenario. Given the numerous headlines
in place I have opted to not include any mention of strong winds
for Wednesday at this point but they are indeed going to have to
be addressed in later periods.

Beyond Wednesday, the overall pattern has not changed and we
remain in a broad NW flow but a Canadian surface high slides down
bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. We are still looking at a
couple of weak shortwaves riding through the state Friday
afternoon/night and a stronger one Saturday. Yet another wave
passes through in the series on Sunday/Sunday night. Given the
colder temps, precip...especially at night and early
morning...will likely be snow North, rain South and a mix
somewhere in between. There is the possibility that accumulating
snow will occur across Northern Iowa. This will be the next
concern to watch for after the wind/fire threat.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/
Issued at 544 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Line of storms moving through with gusty winds and large hail.
CIGS about VFR, briefly could be IFR. Winds to shift around to the
southwest behind the storms, and then west this evening behind a
cold front. Very gusty westerly winds expected Tuesday with VFR
conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Very strong wind is expected over the state on Tuesday. Trends
from soundings are just slightly less from yesterday's run but are
still very strong. Areas North of Highway 20 are still going to
see the strongest winds with more marginal wind speeds the further
South you go. Calls were made to observers and core partners
regarding the consideration of a red flag warning. The issue is
that the strongest winds are not co-located with the lowest
relative humidity values and the RH values across the North are 35
to 45% which are pretty high when considering a red flag warning.
Countering that is the fact that these are one hour fuels and the
strength of the wind will dry things out fairly quickly. Observers
confirmed that fuels near the ground are moist and that there is
some green up of cool season grasses as well as some new growth of
warm season grasses beginning. Given the time of year and the
lack of any activity due to the wind, cooler temps and high end
advisory type wind speeds, a fire weather watch was issued. Should
winds be stronger and relative humidity values across the North
drop further, a red flag warning would need to be issued. I'll
leave this for the mid shift to consider when the latest data is
available.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>028-033>039-044>050-059>062-074-075.

Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>026-033>037-044>049-057>061-070>074-081>085-092>096.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>037-044>047.

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...Beerends
FIRE WEATHER...FAB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
641 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

IAZ006-007-016-017-025-026-036-037-046>049-058>061-071>074-
081>084-092>095-071000-
Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Hamilton-
Hardin-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Taylor-
Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
641 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the area. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and move very quickly
northeast. There is a slight risk of severe storms with the main
threat from damaging winds. Large hail is also possible along
with an isolated tornado. The threat of severe weather will end
later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very strong winds are expected on Tuesday across much of the area
with strongest winds in northern Iowa. This will also produce a
very high to extreme fire danger across the area as well during
the day on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and into the
evening.

IAZ027-028-038-039-050-062-075-071000-
Butler-Bremer-Grundy-Black Hawk-Tama-Poweshiek-Mahaska-
641 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will become likely by early evening and move very
quickly northeast. There is a slight risk of severe storms with
the main threat from damaging winds. Large hail is also possible
along with an isolated tornado. The threat of severe weather will
end later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong winds are expected on Tuesday across much of the area with
strongest winds in northern Iowa. This will also produce a very
high to extreme fire danger across the area as well during the day
on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and into
the evening.

IAZ085-096-071000-
Monroe-Appanoose-
641 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the area. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Thunderstorms will become likely by early evening and move very
quickly northeast. There is an enhanced risk of severe storms with
the main threat from damaging winds. Large hail is also possible
along with tornados. The threat of severe weather will end late
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very strong winds are expected on Tuesday across much of the area
with strongest winds in northern Iowa. This will also produce a
very high to extreme fire danger across the area as well during
the day on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and into the
evening.

IAZ086-097-071000-
Wapello-Davis-
641 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will become likely by early evening and move very
quickly northeast. There is an enhanced risk of severe storms with
the main threat from damaging winds. Large hail is also possible
along with tornados. The threat of severe weather will end later
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong winds are expected on Tuesday across much of the area with
strongest winds in northern Iowa. This will also produce a very
high to extreme fire danger across the area as well during the day
on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and into the
evening.

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-033>035-044-045-057-070-071000-
Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-
Crawford-Carroll-Audubon-Cass-
641 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the area. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Very strong winds are expected on Tuesday across much of the area
with strongest winds in northern Iowa. This will also produce a
very high to extreme fire danger across the area as well during
the day on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and into the
evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
655 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S POLK CITY           41.74N 93.72W
03/06/2017  E60 MPH          POLK               IA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS AT NWS DES
            MOINES OFFICE. .

&&

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
658 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             1 N EARLHAM             41.51N 94.12W
03/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             IA   PUBLIC

            RELAYED FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

FOWLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
701 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TORNADO          3 NE HARCOURT           42.28N 94.13W
03/06/2017                   WEBSTER            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEBSTER COUNTY EM REPORTED TREE DAMAGE AND
            DEBRIS IN A 1.5 MILE LONG AND 30 YARD WIDE
            DAMAGE PATH.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
703 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE WEST DES MOINES    41.58N 93.74W
03/06/2017  E60 MPH          POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
711 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE WAUKEE            41.60N 93.83W
03/06/2017  E60 MPH          DALLAS             IA   PUBLIC

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZED HAIL.
            .

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
717 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 NNE MARTENSDALE       41.39N 93.73W
03/06/2017  M0.75 INCH       WARREN             IA   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM