Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Dodge City, KS

233 
WWUS53 KDDC 162214
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

KSC051-195-162245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170516T2245Z/
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
514 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR TREGO AND NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTIES...

At 514 PM CDT, several severe thunderstorms were located along a 
line extending from 2 miles northwest of Natoma to 9 miles west of 
Trego Center, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Wakeeney, Ellis, Ogallah, Collyer, Voda, Trego Center, Riga and
Turkville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3908 9904 3870 10015 3913 10015 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 188DEG 24KT 3921 9907 3887 10006 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RBURG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Main short term concern is severe weather tonight. Supercell thunderstorms
have developed this afternoon across the OK/TX panhandles. Some activity
has also developed over southwest Kansas to the southwest of Dodge
City. The 19Z KDDC RAOB shows plenty of CAPE and shear for supercells.
The sounding is definitely favorable for supercells with giant hail
(2-4"). The low levels of the sounding right now are not favorable
for tornadoes. This could change as low level SRH increases in association
with a developing LLJ later tonight. In addition, inter-storm dynamics
could change low level shear if current activity kicks out an OFB for
later development to utilize. It is not exactly clear how this will
evolve. The ARW shows a quick evolution to a linear line by early evening.
The HRRRX shows more discrete supercells with a much higher threat
of hail and tornadoes. Mesoanalysis shows strengthening sig torn near
the Oklahoma border over the next few hours. A tornado was just reported
in the OK panhandle. Putting this all together, the highest tornado
threat is expected to be south of Highway 50 and near the Oklahoma
border. Meade, Clark, and Comanche counties will be the most under
the gun for the largest hail and the strongest tornado chances. The
atmosphere will have to change significant through in the next few
hours as the 19Z RAOB is not particularly supportive of large tornadoes.
....However....Low level winds are backing and dewpoints are increasing
across the CWFA, so that change might have just started to occur. Regardless
of this, be sure to pay attention to the weather and take action if
needed!

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

SW Kansas will be in between systems Wednesday. Another synoptic wave
moving through may bring another round of severe convection Thursday.
Details are unclear at this point in time. This system will exit eventually
with a drier regime by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Svr tsra will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Highest probs at KLBL and KDDC. Activity will
exit the region late tonight. SW winds 10-25 kt bcmg southerly overnight.
LLWS psbl at KHYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  51  78 /  60  10   0  30
GCK  53  79  49  72 /  10  10   0  30
EHA  53  79  50  73 /  10   0   0  30
LBL  55  81  53  79 /  20   0   0  20
HYS  58  76  50  71 /  70  20   0  20
P28  60  82  54  84 /  90  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
813 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171315-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
813 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 /713 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Large hail, strong winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes will be possible
this afternoon and evening. Pay attention to the weather and take action
if needed!

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Significant risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Significant risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Severe thunderstorms could be possible on Thursday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
429 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             HOLCOMB                 37.99N 100.99W
05/16/2017  E1.75 INCH       FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
433 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             3 ENE SATANTA           37.45N 100.95W
05/16/2017  E2.50 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
434 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             GARDEN CITY             37.98N 100.86W
05/16/2017  E2.00 INCH       FINNEY             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
444 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             12 WNW ENGLEWOOD        37.12N 100.17W
05/16/2017  E3.00 INCH       MEADE              KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
453 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             8 N GARDEN CITY         38.09N 100.86W
05/16/2017  E2.50 INCH       FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
455 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             HOLCOMB                 37.99N 100.98W
05/16/2017  E3.00 INCH       FINNEY             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GT