Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Dodge City, KS

379 
WWUS53 KDDC 162057 RRA
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

KSC025-119-162107-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-170516T2130Z/
Meade KS-Clark KS-
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MEADE AND NORTHWESTERN
CLARK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3703 10042 3719 10062 3744 10048 3745 10003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 217DEG 48KT 3737 10035 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Main short term concern is severe weather tonight. Supercell thunderstorms
have developed this afternoon across the OK/TX panhandles. Some activity
has also developed over southwest Kansas to the southwest of Dodge
City. The 19Z KDDC RAOB shows plenty of CAPE and shear for supercells.
The sounding is definitely favorable for supercells with giant hail
(2-4"). The low levels of the sounding right now are not favorable
for tornadoes. This could change as low level SRH increases in association
with a developing LLJ later tonight. In addition, inter-storm dynamics
could change low level shear if current activity kicks out an OFB for
later development to utilize. It is not exactly clear how this will
evolve. The ARW shows a quick evolution to a linear line by early evening.
The HRRRX shows more discrete supercells with a much higher threat
of hail and tornadoes. Mesoanalysis shows strengthening sig torn near
the Oklahoma border over the next few hours. A tornado was just reported
in the OK panhandle. Putting this all together, the highest tornado
threat is expected to be south of Highway 50 and near the Oklahoma
border. Meade, Clark, and Comanche counties will be the most under
the gun for the largest hail and the strongest tornado chances. The
atmosphere will have to change significant through in the next few
hours as the 19Z RAOB is not particularly supportive of large tornadoes.
....However....Low level winds are backing and dewpoints are increasing
across the CWFA, so that change might have just started to occur. Regardless
of this, be sure to pay attention to the weather and take action if
needed!

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

SW Kansas will be in between systems Wednesday. Another synoptic wave
moving through may bring another round of severe convection Thursday.
Details are unclear at this point in time. This system will exit eventually
with a drier regime by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Svr tsra will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Highest probs at KLBL and KDDC. Activity will
exit the region late tonight. SW winds 10-25 kt bcmg southerly overnight.
LLWS psbl at KHYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  51  78 /  60  10   0  30
GCK  53  79  49  72 /  10  10   0  30
EHA  53  79  50  73 /  10   0   0  30
LBL  55  81  53  79 /  20   0   0  20
HYS  58  76  50  71 /  70  20   0  20
P28  60  82  54  84 /  90  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
813 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171315-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
813 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 /713 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Large hail, strong winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes will be possible
this afternoon and evening. Pay attention to the weather and take action
if needed!

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Significant risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Significant risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Severe thunderstorms could be possible on Thursday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OTIS                    38.54N 99.05W
05/16/2017                   RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS REPORTED DOWN IN OTIS.
            WINDS DUE TO HEAT BURST EVENT. REPORT
            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0102 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW TOULON            38.85N 99.27W
05/16/2017  M66 MPH          ELLIS              KS   AWOS

            AWOS STATION HYS, HAYS REGIONAL AIRPORT AWOS
            SITE. WINDS DUE TO HEAT BURST.

1035 PM     HAIL             HAYNE                   37.10N 100.80W
05/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       SEWARD             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1014 PM     HAIL             LIBERAL                 37.05N 100.94W
05/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       SEWARD             KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
            QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

1008 PM     HAIL             4 SW LIBERAL            37.00N 100.99W
05/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       SEWARD             KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0914 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E SCOTT CITY          38.48N 100.88W
05/15/2017  M60 MPH          SCOTT              KS   AWOS

0914 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E SCOTT CITY          38.48N 100.88W
05/15/2017  M60 MPH          SCOTT              KS   AWOS

0854 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW PIERCEVILLE        37.93N 100.72W
05/15/2017  M63 MPH          FINNEY             KS   ASOS

0854 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW PIERCEVILLE        37.93N 100.72W
05/15/2017  M63 MPH          FINNEY             KS   ASOS

0818 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW SCOTT STATE LAKE  38.67N 100.97W
05/15/2017  E60 MPH          SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. REPORTS OF A MICROBURST JUST
            WEST OF LAKE SCOTT.

0814 PM     HAIL             9 WSW SCOTT STATE LAKE  38.63N 101.07W
05/15/2017  E2.50 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW HUGOTON           37.17N 101.37W
05/15/2017  M61 MPH          STEVENS            KS   AWOS

0730 PM     HAIL             LAKIN                   37.94N 101.26W
05/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       KEARNY             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

0729 PM     HAIL             3 W LAKIN               37.94N 101.31W
05/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       KEARNY             KS   PUBLIC

0659 PM     HAIL             1 W ULYSSES             37.58N 101.38W
05/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       GRANT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF HALF DOLLAR TO PING PONG SIZED
            HAIL.

0654 PM     HAIL             4 ESE BIG BOW           37.54N 101.49W
05/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

0654 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE BIG BOW           37.54N 101.49W
05/15/2017  E60 MPH          GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

0652 PM     HAIL             3 SSE BIG BOW           37.52N 101.54W
05/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       STANTON            KS   PUBLIC

0638 PM     HAIL             11 ENE RICHFIELD        37.32N 101.59W
05/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             6 NNW THE HAGGARD ELEVA 37.71N 100.35W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             3 E CIMARRON            37.81N 100.29W
05/16/2017  E2.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
328 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             5 SE CIMARRON           37.76N 100.28W
05/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             SATANTA                 37.44N 100.98W
05/16/2017  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             9 SE MEADE STATE PARK   37.06N 100.34W
05/16/2017  E2.00 INCH       MEADE              KS   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL TO HEN EGG SIZED HAIL.

&&

GT