Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1105 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and more humid conditions will prevail for the rest of
today until a strong cold front pushes east through the region
tonight, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend.
Unseasonably cool weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Airmass becoming primed for the development of scattered to
numerous showers and some strong to severe TSRA from 17Z through
02Z Sat along and in advance of a strong cold front...currently
near the Indiana/Ohio border.

SPC's Slight Risk for severe TSRA covers all but our far
eastern zones where a marginal risk is in effect.

Primary, initial concern for SVR TSRA should be across the Susq
Valley and Northcentral Mountains where the best combination of
high cape and moderately stg llvl shear will produce 0-1 km EHIs
of 1-2 m2/s2. These values of EHI will support some isolated
supercells with a chc for an isolated EF0/EF1 tornado.

Little change made to pops and temps for this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Storms may persist after dark (00-06z Sat) given degree of
large-scale ascent with vigorous upper level system and
seasonably strong surface cold front. A blend of WPC/NBM QPF
depicts a zone of 0.50-1.00 inch rainfall amounts along/ahead of
cold FROPA ending 06z Sat.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold
front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon.
They also agree in generating impressive instability with the
added ingredient of increasing deep layer shear later in the
day. The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms,
and at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be
entering the region after max heating with waning instability.
But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing
over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for
developing convection during the afternoon. Additionally, the
GFS/ECMWF paint a relatively broad area of enhanced low level
EHI's by afternoon and evening which should support scattered
supercells and even an isolated tornado. So anticipate scattered
convection to kick off in the early afternoon with the main
show later in the day through the evening.

Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly
cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as
the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft
combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
With the upper shortwave expected to begin shearing out to our
north, models suggest the best chance for a shower will be over
the higher elevations of the west and north.

Sunday will be dry and unseasonably cool as high pressure slides
over the state. The cooler than normal conditions look to
continue for much of next week.

A new shortwave is made to approach for Monday. The ECMWF
shows a stronger trough and even a well developed surface low
racing through the state during the day. The GEFS shows a weaker
inverted surface trough and a much flatter wave aloft. The
ECENS agrees with its deterministic counterpart showing a well
organized surface low. A model blend for POPs yields a fairly
wet day as the new surge of showers pushes through the area
during the day.

Drier air is slated to return for midweek as the frontal system
is moved off to our east. From Wed-Thu there is some
disagreement with rainfall potential. The GFS/GEFS are wetter
under a flatter upper zonal flow regime while the ECMWF keeps
us mainly dry until the end of the week. Too early to tease out
the details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Daytime heating should pop convection around the entire area in
the aftn, but the more certain timing for TSRA will be late in
the aftn and through the entire evening. This will be due to the
passage of a cold front. The front will drag along and ts/shra
will likely linger near/over the eastern terminals through much
of the night. Will knock the mentions of thunder out after 04Z
west and 09Z east.

.OUTLOOK...
Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.
Tue...Chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Gartner
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo/Lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-057-063-064-051800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition, training of several thunderstorms over a given
location could lead to locally heavy rain of over one inch
in just 30 minutes. This heavy rain could produce minor
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ058-059-065-066-051800-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms with brief gusty winds of 40
to 50 mph and up to dime size hail are expected this
afternoon and this evening. Training of several thunderstorms
over a given location could lead to locally heavy rain of over
one inch in just 30 minutes. This heavy rain could produce minor
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
151 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ057-059-063-065-041830-
York PA-Cumberland PA-Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-
151 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF DAUPHIN...YORK...
CUMBERLAND...AND LEBANON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 150 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Dehart Dam to Siddonsburg. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hummelstown, Lower Allen, Steelton, Hershey, Enola, Mechanicsburg,
Camp Hill, Palmyra, Colonial Park, Middletown, Harrisburg, New
Cumberland, Linglestown, Progress, Lemoyne, Lawnton, Siddonsburg,
Hogestown, Dillsburg and Bressler-Enhaut-Oberlin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 7702 4033 7691 4036 7694 4036 7700
      4047 7695 4049 7695 4061 7691 4061 7689
      4063 7686 4062 7684 4065 7680 4066 7670
      4052 7649 4019 7659 4009 7709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 215DEG 19KT 4045 7685 4015 7699

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
220 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE CARLISLE          40.21N  77.19W
08/04/2017                   CUMBERLAND         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN BLOCKING 2600 BLOCK OF ROUTE 11.
            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701323

HEAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
232 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ057>059-041915-
Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-Schuylkill PA-
232 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SCHUYLKILL...DAUPHIN...
AND LEBANON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 232 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Pine Grove to near Lykens to Linglestown.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hummelstown, Hershey, Pottsville, Minersville, Palmyra, Colonial
Park, Annville, Harrisburg, Linglestown, Progress, St. Clair,
Lemoyne, New Cumberland, Lawnton, Valley View, Rutherford, Port
Carbon, Fredericksburg, Klingerstown and Paxtang.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4051 7632 4049 7644 4046 7638 4026 7657
      4024 7689 4026 7690 4029 7692 4034 7692
      4067 7669 4074 7646 4071 7611
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 237DEG 16KT 4059 7636 4052 7664 4033 7682

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
239 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMP HILL               40.24N  76.93W
08/04/2017                   CUMBERLAND         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON ROAD NEAR TWO LANE TO FOUR LANE
            SPLIT ON ROUTE 11/15

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701324

HEAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
251 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ046-049>052-041930-
Southern Lycoming PA-Union PA-Northumberland PA-Montour PA-Snyder PA-
251 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHUMBERLAND...
SNYDER...LYCOMING...MONTOUR...AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Mifflinburg to near Selinsgrove. Movement was
north at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Montoursville, Northumberland, Sunbury, Williamsport, Lewisburg,
Mifflinburg, Selinsgrove, Milton, Elimsport, Winfield, Allenwood,
Montandon, Forest Hill, Shamokin Dam, Hummels Wharf, Kratzerville,
Sand Bridge State Park, Vicksburg, Watsontown and New Columbia.

LAT...LON 4135 7674 4133 7668 4073 7673 4091 7712
      4129 7717 4135 7702 4136 7683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 184DEG 24KT 4093 7704 4078 7679

RXR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
252 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ035-041915-
Fulton PA-
252 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF FULTON COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Needmore, moving north at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain and winds in excess of 40 mph can be expected.

Locations impacted include...
Saluvia, Needmore, Harrisonville, Big Cove Tannery, Sideling Hill
Rest Area, Crystal Springs, McConnellsburg, Valley-Hi and Locust
Grove.

LAT...LON 3982 7829 4005 7819 4005 7818 4006 7819
      4008 7818 4004 7790 3978 7806
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 193DEG 15KT 3987 7816

La Corte