Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS State College, PA

186 
WWUS51 KCTP 042208
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
608 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAC009-042217-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-170804T2230Z/
Bedford PA-
608 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central and central Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 3976 7831 3978 7833 4001 7820 4004 7820
      4005 7818 4009 7820 4012 7816 4016 7814
      4013 7808 4011 7794 4009 7790 4006 7787
      4001 7792 3997 7793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 227DEG 16KT 4001 7816 

$$

PAC057-042230-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-170804T2230Z/
Fulton PA-
608 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR FULTON COUNTY...

At 607 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Valley-Hi,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to 
         trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Saluvia, Waterfall, Harrisonville, Fort Littleton, Sideling Hill Rest
Area, Crystal Springs, Valley-Hi, Locust Grove, Wells Tannery and
McConnellsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 7831 3978 7833 4001 7820 4004 7820
      4005 7818 4009 7820 4012 7816 4016 7814
      4013 7808 4011 7794 4009 7790 4006 7787
      4001 7792 3997 7793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 227DEG 16KT 4001 7816 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RXR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
332 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and more humid conditions will prevail for the rest of
today until a strong cold front pushes east through the region
tonight, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend.
Unseasonably cool weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Instability continuing to increase in the warm and humid airmass
and some of the stronger cells (occurring mainly in small
clusters so far) have had cores of 50 dbz a few kft above the
-20C level with borderline large hail and a few instances of
 localized wind damage in the form of downed trees.

Severe TSRA watch #439 in effect until 01Z Sat for all but 4 of
our SE CWA counties.

The latest several runs of the RAP13 continue to paint
an area of increasing 0-1km EHI working its way gradually nwd
across the lower and mid Susq Valley during the afternoon hours.
although most cells occurring in that area now appear sub-
severe, the enhanced southerly LLJ (and apparent highest ML cape
in the CWA of 2000+ J/kg) has resulted in some reports of wind
damage just to the west and north of KCXY over the past hour or
so.

The focus from now until the CFROPA tonight will be on areas of
increasing low-mid level shear and small areas of EHIs
exceeding 2 m2/s2 (mainly across the nrn and eastern parts of
the CWA, where the near sfc wind remains backed to the SE or
SSE, helping to enhance llvl theta-e convergence and updraft/EHI
strength). These values of EHI will support some isolated
supercells with a chc for an isolated EF0/EF1 tornado.

The other threat from the SHRA/TSRA will be at least some
localized poor drainage flooding and minor stream flooding as
there are several areas of low 1-hour FFG just a tad over one
inch, thanks to small pockets of recent very heavy rainfall.

Little change made to temps for the rest of this afternoon,
while pops were adjusted upward slightly in most areas to
the likely and categorical range.

Storms will persist for a few hours after dark (01-06z Sat)
given the degree of large-scale ascent with vigorous upper
level system and timing of the seasonably strong surface cold
front. A blend of WPC/NBM QPF depicts a zone of 0.50-1.00 inch
rainfall amounts along/ahead of cold FROPA ending 06z Sat with
localized 1.5 to 2.5 inch amounts (especially across the Susq
Valley and Ncent mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly
cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as
the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft
combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
With the upper shortwave expected to begin shearing out to our
north, models suggest the best chance for a shower will be over
the higher elevations of the west and north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds over central PA with a cool Sunday morning
lows from the upper 40s in the northern tier to the mid 50s in
the south. Sunny and dry in the east as the high center slides
off the coast. Some clouds in the west with a slight chance of
showers in the afternoon over the mountains and northwest. This
is as the ridge breaks down and weak short-waves move east in
the flow. Increasing chances for showers into the evening and
overnight into Monday. Some thunder possible mainly Monday
afternoon. High temps Sunday and Monday in the 70s.

Low and front crosses PA monday and off the coast Monday night
with diminishing POPs. Just a slight chance of lingering showers
Tuesday in the Northeast and Poconos and Southwest Laurel
Mountains. High pressure and cooler air moves in by Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning with lows again in the 50s most
areas. Just a slight chance of a shower in the Laurel Mountains
Wednesday afternoon. Next system increases chances for rain
moving back into Central PA wednesday night into Thursday. With
a chance of showers or thunderstorms lingering into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
some additional heating for the mid to late afternoon should
continue to gradually expand the areal coverage of convection
across the entire area. More certain timing for TSRA will be
late in the aftn and through the entire evening as a strong
cold front approaches from the west and is preceded by a few
compact mid/upper level jet maxes.

The timing of the cold frontal passage late tonight across the
Susq Valley and points east will mean the likelihood of
shra/sctd TSRA lingering from KMDT and KLNS...north to KIPT.

Will knock the mentions of thunder out after 04Z over the west
and 09Z east.

.OUTLOOK...
Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.
Tue...Chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-057-063-064-051800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition, training of several thunderstorms over a given
location could lead to locally heavy rain of over one inch
in just 30 minutes. This heavy rain could produce minor
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ058-059-065-066-051800-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms with brief gusty winds of 40
to 50 mph and up to dime size hail are expected this
afternoon and this evening. Training of several thunderstorms
over a given location could lead to locally heavy rain of over
one inch in just 30 minutes. This heavy rain could produce minor
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ028-042115-
Juniata PA-
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JUNIATA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 433 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Spruce Hill, moving north at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mcalisterville, Walnut, Mexico, Spruce Hill, Mifflintown, Port Royal
and Mifflin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near an area lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 7751 4062 7748 4065 7742 4064 7727
      4046 7743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 199DEG 19KT 4050 7746

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE DUSHORE            41.49N  76.36W
08/04/2017                   SULLIVAN           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS IN COLLEY
            TOWNSHIP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701327

EVANEGO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
458 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ034-035-042130-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-
458 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 458 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Lake Gordon to near Locust Grove. Movement
was north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Breezewood, Bedford, Lake Gordon, Saluvia, Clearville, Everett,
Buffalo Mills, Valley-Hi, Locust Grove, Barnes Gap, Harrisonville,
Sideling Hill Rest Area, Inglesmith, Crystal Springs, Rainsburg,
Schellsburg, Manns Choice and Hyndman.

LAT...LON 3973 7874 4005 7866 4009 7798 3972 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 196DEG 24KT 3981 7859 3982 7826

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N TYRONE              40.69N  78.25W
08/04/2017                   BLAIR              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WIRES DOWN ON DECKER HOLLOW ROAD NORTH OF TYRONE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701328

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
512 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW DUNCANSVILLE       40.46N  78.47W
08/04/2017                   BLAIR              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ALONG SUGAR RUN ROAD IN ALLEGHENY TOWNSHIP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701329

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
516 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BELLWOOD                40.60N  78.33W
08/04/2017                   BLAIR              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR BELLWOOD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701330

EVANEGO