Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
332 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and more humid conditions will prevail for the rest of
today until a strong cold front pushes east through the region
tonight, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend.
Unseasonably cool weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Instability continuing to increase in the warm and humid airmass
and some of the stronger cells (occurring mainly in small
clusters so far) have had cores of 50 dbz a few kft above the
-20C level with borderline large hail and a few instances of
 localized wind damage in the form of downed trees.

Severe TSRA watch #439 in effect until 01Z Sat for all but 4 of
our SE CWA counties.

The latest several runs of the RAP13 continue to paint
an area of increasing 0-1km EHI working its way gradually nwd
across the lower and mid Susq Valley during the afternoon hours.
although most cells occurring in that area now appear sub-
severe, the enhanced southerly LLJ (and apparent highest ML cape
in the CWA of 2000+ J/kg) has resulted in some reports of wind
damage just to the west and north of KCXY over the past hour or
so.

The focus from now until the CFROPA tonight will be on areas of
increasing low-mid level shear and small areas of EHIs
exceeding 2 m2/s2 (mainly across the nrn and eastern parts of
the CWA, where the near sfc wind remains backed to the SE or
SSE, helping to enhance llvl theta-e convergence and updraft/EHI
strength). These values of EHI will support some isolated
supercells with a chc for an isolated EF0/EF1 tornado.

The other threat from the SHRA/TSRA will be at least some
localized poor drainage flooding and minor stream flooding as
there are several areas of low 1-hour FFG just a tad over one
inch, thanks to small pockets of recent very heavy rainfall.

Little change made to temps for the rest of this afternoon,
while pops were adjusted upward slightly in most areas to
the likely and categorical range.

Storms will persist for a few hours after dark (01-06z Sat)
given the degree of large-scale ascent with vigorous upper
level system and timing of the seasonably strong surface cold
front. A blend of WPC/NBM QPF depicts a zone of 0.50-1.00 inch
rainfall amounts along/ahead of cold FROPA ending 06z Sat with
localized 1.5 to 2.5 inch amounts (especially across the Susq
Valley and Ncent mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly
cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as
the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft
combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
With the upper shortwave expected to begin shearing out to our
north, models suggest the best chance for a shower will be over
the higher elevations of the west and north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds over central PA with a cool Sunday morning
lows from the upper 40s in the northern tier to the mid 50s in
the south. Sunny and dry in the east as the high center slides
off the coast. Some clouds in the west with a slight chance of
showers in the afternoon over the mountains and northwest. This
is as the ridge breaks down and weak short-waves move east in
the flow. Increasing chances for showers into the evening and
overnight into Monday. Some thunder possible mainly Monday
afternoon. High temps Sunday and Monday in the 70s.

Low and front crosses PA monday and off the coast Monday night
with diminishing POPs. Just a slight chance of lingering showers
Tuesday in the Northeast and Poconos and Southwest Laurel
Mountains. High pressure and cooler air moves in by Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning with lows again in the 50s most
areas. Just a slight chance of a shower in the Laurel Mountains
Wednesday afternoon. Next system increases chances for rain
moving back into Central PA wednesday night into Thursday. With
a chance of showers or thunderstorms lingering into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
some additional heating for the mid to late afternoon should
continue to gradually expand the areal coverage of convection
across the entire area. More certain timing for TSRA will be
late in the aftn and through the entire evening as a strong
cold front approaches from the west and is preceded by a few
compact mid/upper level jet maxes.

The timing of the cold frontal passage late tonight across the
Susq Valley and points east will mean the likelihood of
shra/sctd TSRA lingering from KMDT and KLNS...north to KIPT.

Will knock the mentions of thunder out after 04Z over the west
and 09Z east.

.OUTLOOK...
Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.
Tue...Chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-057-063-064-051800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition, training of several thunderstorms over a given
location could lead to locally heavy rain of over one inch
in just 30 minutes. This heavy rain could produce minor
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ058-059-065-066-051800-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms with brief gusty winds of 40
to 50 mph and up to dime size hail are expected this
afternoon and this evening. Training of several thunderstorms
over a given location could lead to locally heavy rain of over
one inch in just 30 minutes. This heavy rain could produce minor
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
354 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE DUBOISTOWN        41.21N  77.03W
08/04/2017                   LYCOMING           PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ALONG JACKS HOLLOW ROAD IN
            ARMSTRONG TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701325

EVANEGO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
418 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ033-034-042045-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
418 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF BEDFORD AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Meyersdale to near Lake Gordon. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Gordon, Berlin, Buffalo Mills, Meyersdale, Wellersburg,
Salisbury, Callimont, Rainsburg and Hyndman.

LAT...LON 3973 7912 3994 7899 4000 7837 3972 7856
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 206DEG 22KT 3974 7902 3979 7863

RXR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
424 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ005-010-042100-
McKean PA-Elk PA-
424 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ELK AND MCKEAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Frewsburg to near Brockway. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bradford, Ridgway, Kane, St. Marys, Johnsonburg, Allegany State Park,
Rew, Ludlow, Marshburg, East Branch Dam, Kinzua Bridge State Park,
Portland Mills, Smethport, Cyclone, Brandy Camp, Westline, Brockport,
Wetmore, James City and Wilcox.

LAT...LON 4200 7847 4162 7841 4152 7842 4123 7874
      4126 7874 4137 7897 4135 7902 4135 7909
      4134 7909 4141 7910 4143 7906 4145 7906
      4145 7898 4144 7896 4182 7895 4184 7892
      4200 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 213DEG 47KT 4206 7905 4126 7884

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
425 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E MONTOURSVILLE       41.25N  76.82W
08/04/2017                   LYCOMING           PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON BUSH HOLLOW ROAD NORTHWEST OF
            PENNSDALE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701326

EVANEGO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
428 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ006-012-041-042100-
Potter PA-Northern Clinton PA-Northern Lycoming PA-
428 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LYCOMING...POTTER...AND
CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Glen Union, moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glen Union, Hyner, Cedar Run, Cammal, Slate Run, Ole Bull State Park
and Renovo.

LAT...LON 4154 7737 4123 7751 4125 7773 4155 7773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 188DEG 19KT 4129 7761

RXR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ028-042115-
Juniata PA-
433 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JUNIATA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 433 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Spruce Hill, moving north at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mcalisterville, Walnut, Mexico, Spruce Hill, Mifflintown, Port Royal
and Mifflin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near an area lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 7751 4062 7748 4065 7742 4064 7727
      4046 7743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 199DEG 19KT 4050 7746

Lambert