Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
753 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and more humid conditions will prevail for the rest of
today until a strong cold front pushes east through the region
tonight, bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend.
Unseasonably cool weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Severe TSRA watch #439 continues until 01Z Sat for all but 4 of
our SE CWA counties as thunderstorms are ongoing in two
distinct north south lines across the area.

The focus from now until the CFROPA tonight will be on areas of
increasing low-mid level shear and small areas of EHIs
exceeding 2 m2/s2 (mainly across the nrn and eastern parts of
the CWA, where the near sfc wind remains backed to the SE or
SSE, helping to enhance llvl theta-e convergence and updraft/EHI
strength). These values of EHI will support some isolated
supercells with a chc for an isolated EF0/EF1 tornado.

The other threat from the SHRA/TSRA will be at least some
localized poor drainage flooding and minor stream flooding as
there are several areas of low 1-hour FFG just a tad over one
inch, thanks to small pockets of recent very heavy rainfall.

Storms will persist for a few hours after dark (01-06z Sat)
given the degree of large-scale ascent with vigorous upper level
system and timing of the seasonably strong surface cold front.
A blend of WPC/NBM QPF depicts a zone of 0.50-1.00 inch rainfall
amounts along/ahead of cold FROPA ending 06z Sat with localized
1.5 to 2.5 inch amounts (especially across the Susq Valley and
Ncent mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly
cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as
the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft
combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
With the upper shortwave expected to begin shearing out to our
north, models suggest the best chance for a shower will be over
the higher elevations of the west and north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds over central PA with a cool Sunday morning
lows from the upper 40s in the northern tier to the mid 50s in
the south. Sunny and dry in the east as the high center slides
off the coast. Some clouds in the west with a slight chance of
showers in the afternoon over the mountains and northwest. This
is as the ridge breaks down and weak short-waves move east in
the flow. Increasing chances for showers into the evening and
overnight into Monday. Some thunder possible mainly Monday
afternoon. High temps Sunday and Monday in the 70s.

Low and front crosses PA monday and off the coast Monday night
with diminishing POPs. Just a slight chance of lingering showers
Tuesday in the Northeast and Poconos and Southwest Laurel
Mountains. High pressure and cooler air moves in by Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning with lows again in the 50s most
areas. Just a slight chance of a shower in the Laurel Mountains
Wednesday afternoon. Next system increases chances for rain
moving back into Central PA wednesday night into Thursday. With
a chance of showers or thunderstorms lingering into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Two distinct north south lines of TSRA are crossing the state
this evening. Current forcast tries to time each line crossing
any one location but should be through the area by 03Z-06Z.

VFR conditions will occur on Saturday but northwest winds will
gust to 20-15 knots with a stratus layer around FL050.

.OUTLOOK...
Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.
Tue...Chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Tyburski
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Lambert/Tyburski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
754 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-060000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
754 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition, training of several thunderstorms over a given
location could lead to locally heavy rain of over one inch
in just 30 minutes. This heavy rain could produce minor
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
657 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW WELLSBORO         41.77N  77.37W
08/04/2017                   TIOGA              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF DANTZ RUN
            ROAD AND ROUTE 6.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701336

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
701 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W MANSFIELD           41.81N  77.16W
08/04/2017                   TIOGA              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES SNAPPED ALONG LAKE ROAD NEAR HILLS CREEK STATE
            PARK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701337

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW WELLSBORO         41.72N  77.37W
08/04/2017                   TIOGA              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG ROUTE 362 BETWEEN
            AIRPORT ROAD AND THE WELLSBORO COUNTRY CLUB.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701338

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW METAL              39.99N  77.91W
08/04/2017                   FRANKLIN           PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED TO BE DAMAGED JUST EAST OF
            COWNAS GAP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701339

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNNSTOWN               41.15N  77.42W
08/04/2017                   CLINTON            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR DUNNSTOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701340

EVANEGO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
750 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

PAZ041-042-050045-
Sullivan PA-Northern Lycoming PA-
750 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 750 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Canton to 6 miles north of Barbours.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kettle Creek Gorge, Muncy Valley, Lincoln Falls, Shunk, Laporte,
Eagles Mere, Hillsgrove, Dushore and Forksville.

LAT...LON 4145 7625 4129 7656 4131 7660 4143 7680
      4137 7691 4158 7691 4159 7688 4160 7688
      4154 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 228DEG 31KT 4169 7684 4148 7683

RXR