Small Craft Advisory 445, NWS Anchorage, AK

785 
FZAK52 PAFC 061117
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070000-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS ACTIVE.

A 994 MB LOW 110 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES 150 NM NORTH OF 
SHEMYA AT 996 MB WED AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING 220 NM WEST OF SHEMYA
AT 1002 MB THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE 
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BEFORE 
EXITING THE BERING BY THU MORNING. A 999 MB LOW TRACKS 240 NM 
SOUTH OF ADAK THU AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSING INTO 
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

$$

PKZ150-070000-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-070000-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-070000-
Bristol Bay-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-070000-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight.
From Port Moller E, NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-070000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-070000-
Unalaska Bay-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-070000-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-070000-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-070000-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-070000-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-070000-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-070000-
Adak to Kiska-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-070000-
Kiska to Attu-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-070000-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-070000-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-070000-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming variable 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-070000-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
317 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 20 kt W 
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1236 PM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level closed high has shifted westward, and is
positioned over Saint Lawrence Island with a ridge extending
eastward through the Brooks Range. The other associated ridge
extend south through the lower eastern Bering just north of the
Dutch Harbor region. This is producing stable conditions with some
stratus/fog over the Bering Sea. Meanwhile, a thermal trough
extends along the Alaska Range into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley,
Bristol Bay Interior, and into the Kuskokwim Mountains this
morning. This is setting up for active convection for the
Southwest Alaska region today as an upper level shortwave moves
from east to west as it tracks into the aforementioned region.
The other concern this morning will be for the Kuskokwim Delta
area with the offshore flow combined with low relative humidities
will produce very dry conditions. Therefore, close monitoring will
occur for Fire Weather issues for the Kuskokwim Delta today.
Meanwhile, the central Gulf has a closed low with a trough
extending into the Yakutat area. This synoptic feature is
reflected at the surface as a 985 mb gale force low near 53N 147W.
The satellite imagery is showing this system with a large
elongated swath of clouds extending just south of the Gulf, and
beginning to stream into the eastern Gulf this morning. Otherwise,
the Southcentral Region has the remnants of the shortwave which
pushed through yesterday. The satellite imagery is showing
northeasterly flow, and coincides with the northeasterly upper
level flow. The radar imagery is reflecting a showery regime over
the Anchorage Bowl under a northerly flow. Abundant cloud cover
has put a damper on any fog development for the Southwest or
Southcentral Alaska region this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in decent agreement but discrepancies occur
by Tuesday as the next low develops into the Gulf, and the
Western Aleutians. The ECMWF seems to be the outlier with the Gulf
low as it moves the low faster across the Gulf. The preferred
model of choice was the GFS, and the forecast confidence remains
above average, but diminishes heading into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions but the remnants of the easterly wave will
bring light showers this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An easterly wave will produce widespread showers over south
central Alaska today, then move west into southwest Alaska this
evening. A strong low in the Gulf of Alaska will push a front into
the Gulf coast this evening. This front will produce rain for the
coastal areas, mainly along eastern Kenai and Kodiak Island.
Inland areas will only see isolated to scattered showers. Gale
force winds will be over much of the Gulf today and tonight, then
slowly diminish on Tuesday. Another low will work its way into the
northern Gulf Tuesday night, and then near Kodiak Island Tuesday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The westward progression of an upper level shortwave combined
with a diurnal thermal trough and northeasterly winds will
enhance conditions for possible Red Flag Warning weather
conditions for hot, dry and windy conditions through the
Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon today through this evening time-
frame. The confidence is fairly high in reaching the Red Flag
weather conditions mainly west of Bethel except along the
immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A ridge of high pressure over the region will shift northwest
today as a shortwave trough over the Gulf of Alaska moves west
this afternoon. Dynamic ascent and lift will result in the
development of a surface low across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
northern Bristol Bay. Afternoon thunderstorms will form along the
Alaska Range, and Kilbuck/Ahklun Mountains and continue into the
late evening. Some of these thunderstorms may be rather strong
given the impressive low level convergence. This may act to
organize some of the thunderstorms into longer lasting entities.
Meanwhile, northerly offshore winds will increase west of the low,
with high temperatures possibly reaching near 80 degrees across
parts of the Kuskokwim Delta. Showers, and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm, will last overnight before convective activity
diminishes and moves into the Bering Sea.

On Tuesday, strong easterly cyclonic flow aloft will mostly bring
cross-barrier downslope flow to Southwest. There will be some
sporadic showers as upper shortwave troughs embedded within the
flow move over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Rather quiescent weather will continue over the Bering Sea
through Tuesday night as high pressure centered over the Central
Bering Sea remains in place. Out west, a low moving toward Shemya
today will strengthen Tuesday and Tuesday night, reaching around
30 knots with rain moving east as far as Adak/Atka. Over the
Eastern Bering Sea, showers and with an isolated thunderstorm
near the Bristol Bay coast will develop this afternoon and
evening. Shower threats moving off the Southwest coast and toward
the Alaska Peninsula will continue to be a threat through Tuesday
night as two separate lows move toward Kodiak Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The pattern moving into the long term has a blocking high over
northern Alaska with a low south of the Gulf of Alaska. Another
upper level low will over the far western Bering that will track
east staying just south of the Aleutians through the week.
Meanwhile, the high and low near the mainland will mostly stay in
place into late next week bringing moist, southeast flow to the
southern mainland. Most of the rain will stay along the coast with
afternoon showers for inland locations. On Thursday this pattern
will break down making way for the western low to move near the
Alaska Peninsula on Friday. However, there is disagreement with
where this low will end up with some models bringing it north
towards the Bristol Bay area while others stay south of the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...119 120 131 132 136 137 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DK