Small Craft Advisory 443, NWS Anchorage, AK

475 
FZAK52 PAFC 051113
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-052345-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS ACTIVE.

A 992 mb low 250 nm southwest of Shemya moves 110 nm northwest of
Shemya at 996 mb Tue morning before moving 350 nm northwest of 
Shemya at 1002 mb Wed afternoon. A 998 mb low moves 80 nm 
southeast of the Chirikof Islands Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-052345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-052345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-052345-
Bristol Bay-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-052345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt becoming Ne 15 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller e, NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-052345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-052345-
Unalaska Bay-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-052345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-052345-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-052345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-052345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-052345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-052345-
Adak to Kiska-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-052345-
Kiska to Attu-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ179-052345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ180-052345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-052345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-052345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 AM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level closed high pressure remains embarked over the
Brooks Range extending northward through the North Slope region.
While an associated ridge extends southward through the Alaska
Range into the Kenai Peninsula this morning. Meanwhile, the
satellite imagery is showing stratus/fog from the southern to
northern Cook Inlet. The surface observation at Kenai this morning
continues to report low stratus at 300 feet with variable
visibilities reduced in fog. The flow up the Cook Inlet remains
out of the southwest direction, and will help the stratus/fog to
move northward up the inlet. Thankfully, the Turnagain Arm winds
will prevent any fog from advecting into the Anchorage Bowl this
morning. Meanwhile, at the surface the northern Gulf has a 1013 mb
high pressure over the Cape Suckling area, and a weak 1004 mb low
over the eastern Gulf. The satellite imagery is picking this low
pressure system up well with a nice comma cloud over the
aforementioned region. Looking farther in the interior, the thermal
trough remains over the Copper River, and along the Alaska Range
today.

While the Eastern Aleutians are being influenced by a 982 mb gale
force low located just south of Cape Sarichef area. This is
bringing gale force southeasterly winds as the frontal boundary
tracks through this morning. The water vapor imagery is showing a
large swath of moisture streaming across the Alaska Peninsula
northward into the eastern Bering Sea. The surface observations
are reporting light rain with gusty easterly winds for the
aforementioned region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement as the low south of the
Eastern Aleutians moves eastward before a secondary low develops
near 51N 148W by Sunday evening. These two features phase into
one low pressure system by Monday afternoon as it begins to enter
the lower Gulf of Alaska. The GFS was the preferred model of
choice, and the forecast confidence remains above average through
the short term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Showers will
form along the mountains during the afternoon through the early
evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An easterly wave over the eastern Copper River basin and the
Cordova/Valdez areas will drift east through Monday, bringing
increasing chances of rain/showers to much of the area. A thermal
trough over the northern Copper River Basin and northern Susitna
Valley will bring some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. A strong weather system over the southeast Gulf of Alaska
will move to the Gulf coast Monday evening into Tuesday morning,
bringing rain to the coastal areas and coastal mountains. Strong
winds will also move into the marine areas, with gale force winds
expected over the northern and northwestern Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper level ridging leading to a strong thermal trough across
Interior Alaska means another day of above normal temperatures for
much of the interior of Southwest Alaska can be expected again
today. However, an easterly wave moving into the area will mean
more cloud cover, more moisture, and as a result, slightly cooler
temperatures for most areas compared with previous days.

The easterly wave providing the forcing, additional moisture, and
instability values expected to exceed 500 J/kg means all the
ingredients will be present for thunderstorms along the Alaska
Range this afternoon. Thus, scattered thunderstorms are expected
across the area. An east to northeast steering flow will cause the
storms to move off the mountains late this afternoon into the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

Cooler air moving northwestward will shift the afternoon
thunderstorm threat west towards the Kilbucks and especially the
Wood River Mountains on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will still
be possible along the northern Alaska Range as well. Thus, look
for cooler temperatures along Bristol Bay on Monday with extra
cloud cover moving in, but warmer temperatures in the Kuskokwim
Delta as the upper level ridge and associated warmer air moves
west. The boundary between the two air masses will be the focal
point for Monday's thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low pressure system centered just southeast of Dutch
Harbor will continue to be the cause of all the active weather
across the Bering today. As the storm weakens and moves
southeastward away from the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, the
associated rainfall will diminish tonight, with the winds
following suit by Monday. Fog and stratus will continue to be
present across much of the rest of the Bering as the southern
extension of the upper level ridging over the mainland moves
westward into the Bering through Monday.

The warmer air associated with the ridging will create a stable
atmosphere resistant to mixing, which favors fog and stratus
formation. The next low will move into the western and eventually
central Aleutians Monday, increasing the winds and keeping rain
in the forecast. The low will be moving northward into the western
Aleutians by Tuesday, so points further east will not be impacted.

&&

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA FIRE WEATHER...
Slightly cooler temperatures with more cloud cover and moisture
will boost relative humidity values above 25 percent in the
afternoon. Winds will also remain light except near Lake Iliamna,
where a persistent easterly flow through the gap is expected this
afternoon. The primary fire weather threat will be from
thunderstorms. This afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the Alaska Range as the first in a series of
easterly waves adds moisture and lift to an increasingly unstable
atmosphere. The storms will move east with time into the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley or far interior Bristol Bay before dying out this
evening. Frequent lightning is possible with the storms along the
Alaska Range.

On Monday, the storm threat shifts westward to the Wood River
Mountains in particular, where widely scattered thunderstorms will
be possible. A cooler air mass moving in from the south slowly
displacing the warm air mass currently in place across Southwest
Alaska will be what causes the thunderstorms. Isolated storms will
be possible again along the northern Alaska Range.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The pattern moving into the long term has a blocking high over
northwest Alaska with a relatively stationary low south of the
Gulf of Alaska. An elongated area of low pressure will be over the
far western Bering and that low will consolidate and track east
staying just south of the Aleutians through the week. The main
high and low will mostly stay in place into late next week
bringing moist, southeast flow to the southern mainland. Most of
the rain will stay along the coast with afternoon showers for
inland locations. On Thursday this pattern will break down making
way for the western low to move near the Alaska Peninsula Friday.
However, there is disagreement with where this low will end up
with some models bringing it north towards Bristol Bay and others
pushing it off into the North Pacific.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...119 120 131 132 150 155 351.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...DK