Gale Warning 343, NWS Anchorage, AK

081 
FZAK61 PAFC 051114
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 AM AKDT MON JUN 5 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-060115-
314 AM AKDT MON JUN 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE 
WEST/NORTHERN GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT MOVES WESTWARD 
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW TRACKS NEAR 
56N 143W TUE EVENING MOVES TO 58N 150W AT 992 MB WED MORNING BEFORE 
MOVING TO 55N 154W AT 1000 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-060115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
314 AM AKDT MON JUN 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-060115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
314 AM AKDT MON JUN 5 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

668 
FZAK61 PAFC 052358
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 PM AKDT MON JUN 5 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-061330-
358 PM AKDT MON JUN 5 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 
993 MB LOW ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 56N 141W FOR MIDDAY TUE.
THIS LOW ARCHES NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST THEN SHIFTS TO 55N 154W
AT 999 MB BY WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-061330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
358 PM AKDT MON JUN 5 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-061330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
358 PM AKDT MON JUN 5 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

663 
FZAK61 PAFC 061110
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 AM AKDT TUE JUN 6 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070100-
310 AM AKDT TUE JUN 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 
994 MB LOW ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 56N 140W TUE AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING TO 57N 155W AT 995 MB WED MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NEAR 53N 152W AT 1001 MB EARLY THU MORNING. A 999 MB LOW ENTERS 
THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 56N 142W THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-070100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 AM AKDT TUE JUN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ352-070100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 AM AKDT TUE JUN 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

959 
FZAK61 PAFC 062344
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-071345-
344 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 991 mb low near 56N 143W will strengthen to 989 mb as it moves 
to 57N 151W late tonight. This low will then gradually weaken to 
994 mb as it moves to 55N 154W Wed afternoon before moving south 
into the Pacific Ocean Wed evening.

$$

PKZ351-071345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-071345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 7
to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 AM AKDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level closed high pressure remains embarked over the
Brooks Range extending northward through the North Slope region.
While an associated ridge extends southward through the Alaska
Range into the Kenai Peninsula this morning. Meanwhile, the
satellite imagery is showing stratus/fog from the southern to
northern Cook Inlet. The surface observation at Kenai this morning
continues to report low stratus at 300 feet with variable
visibilities reduced in fog. The flow up the Cook Inlet remains
out of the southwest direction, and will help the stratus/fog to
move northward up the inlet. Thankfully, the Turnagain Arm winds
will prevent any fog from advecting into the Anchorage Bowl this
morning. Meanwhile, at the surface the northern Gulf has a 1013 mb
high pressure over the Cape Suckling area, and a weak 1004 mb low
over the eastern Gulf. The satellite imagery is picking this low
pressure system up well with a nice comma cloud over the
aforementioned region. Looking farther in the interior, the thermal
trough remains over the Copper River, and along the Alaska Range
today.

While the Eastern Aleutians are being influenced by a 982 mb gale
force low located just south of Cape Sarichef area. This is
bringing gale force southeasterly winds as the frontal boundary
tracks through this morning. The water vapor imagery is showing a
large swath of moisture streaming across the Alaska Peninsula
northward into the eastern Bering Sea. The surface observations
are reporting light rain with gusty easterly winds for the
aforementioned region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement as the low south of the
Eastern Aleutians moves eastward before a secondary low develops
near 51N 148W by Sunday evening. These two features phase into
one low pressure system by Monday afternoon as it begins to enter
the lower Gulf of Alaska. The GFS was the preferred model of
choice, and the forecast confidence remains above average through
the short term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Showers will
form along the mountains during the afternoon through the early
evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An easterly wave over the eastern Copper River basin and the
Cordova/Valdez areas will drift east through Monday, bringing
increasing chances of rain/showers to much of the area. A thermal
trough over the northern Copper River Basin and northern Susitna
Valley will bring some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. A strong weather system over the southeast Gulf of Alaska
will move to the Gulf coast Monday evening into Tuesday morning,
bringing rain to the coastal areas and coastal mountains. Strong
winds will also move into the marine areas, with gale force winds
expected over the northern and northwestern Gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Upper level ridging leading to a strong thermal trough across
Interior Alaska means another day of above normal temperatures for
much of the interior of Southwest Alaska can be expected again
today. However, an easterly wave moving into the area will mean
more cloud cover, more moisture, and as a result, slightly cooler
temperatures for most areas compared with previous days.

The easterly wave providing the forcing, additional moisture, and
instability values expected to exceed 500 J/kg means all the
ingredients will be present for thunderstorms along the Alaska
Range this afternoon. Thus, scattered thunderstorms are expected
across the area. An east to northeast steering flow will cause the
storms to move off the mountains late this afternoon into the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

Cooler air moving northwestward will shift the afternoon
thunderstorm threat west towards the Kilbucks and especially the
Wood River Mountains on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will still
be possible along the northern Alaska Range as well. Thus, look
for cooler temperatures along Bristol Bay on Monday with extra
cloud cover moving in, but warmer temperatures in the Kuskokwim
Delta as the upper level ridge and associated warmer air moves
west. The boundary between the two air masses will be the focal
point for Monday's thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low pressure system centered just southeast of Dutch
Harbor will continue to be the cause of all the active weather
across the Bering today. As the storm weakens and moves
southeastward away from the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, the
associated rainfall will diminish tonight, with the winds
following suit by Monday. Fog and stratus will continue to be
present across much of the rest of the Bering as the southern
extension of the upper level ridging over the mainland moves
westward into the Bering through Monday.

The warmer air associated with the ridging will create a stable
atmosphere resistant to mixing, which favors fog and stratus
formation. The next low will move into the western and eventually
central Aleutians Monday, increasing the winds and keeping rain
in the forecast. The low will be moving northward into the western
Aleutians by Tuesday, so points further east will not be impacted.

&&

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA FIRE WEATHER...
Slightly cooler temperatures with more cloud cover and moisture
will boost relative humidity values above 25 percent in the
afternoon. Winds will also remain light except near Lake Iliamna,
where a persistent easterly flow through the gap is expected this
afternoon. The primary fire weather threat will be from
thunderstorms. This afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are
expected along the Alaska Range as the first in a series of
easterly waves adds moisture and lift to an increasingly unstable
atmosphere. The storms will move east with time into the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley or far interior Bristol Bay before dying out this
evening. Frequent lightning is possible with the storms along the
Alaska Range.

On Monday, the storm threat shifts westward to the Wood River
Mountains in particular, where widely scattered thunderstorms will
be possible. A cooler air mass moving in from the south slowly
displacing the warm air mass currently in place across Southwest
Alaska will be what causes the thunderstorms. Isolated storms will
be possible again along the northern Alaska Range.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The pattern moving into the long term has a blocking high over
northwest Alaska with a relatively stationary low south of the
Gulf of Alaska. An elongated area of low pressure will be over the
far western Bering and that low will consolidate and track east
staying just south of the Aleutians through the week. The main
high and low will mostly stay in place into late next week
bringing moist, southeast flow to the southern mainland. Most of
the rain will stay along the coast with afternoon showers for
inland locations. On Thursday this pattern will break down making
way for the western low to move near the Alaska Peninsula Friday.
However, there is disagreement with where this low will end up
with some models bringing it north towards Bristol Bay and others
pushing it off into the North Pacific.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...119 120 131 132 150 155 351.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
LONG TERM...DK